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300万吨PVC产能悬了！高成本企业集体“自愿退出”，东华东工厂首当其冲

发布于 2025-08-27

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">根据摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）2025年8月12日研究报告《China Chemicals》关于中国PVC/烧碱行业专家电话会议纪要的详细内容总结：</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心主题：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;评估中国PVC（聚氯乙烯）和烧碱（CA）行业的“反内卷”政策影响、当前市场状况、关键风险（特别是印度市场）以及未来展望。</span></span></span></span></p><h2 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="ci8km0EyO-" style="" data-dir-key="ci8km0EyO-"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主要要点总结</span></span></span></span></h2><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">“反内卷”政策影响：自愿退出而非强制关停</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">专家认为，针对PVC/烧碱行业的“反内卷”政策不太可能导致大规模的</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">强制关停</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">原因在于，现有产能已在2015-16年完成了消除汞基催化剂的改造，符合环保法规要求。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">然而，专家预计未来几年可能会有约</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">300万吨/年（Mtpa）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;的高成本PVC产能</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">自愿退出</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">这些高风险产能主要集中在</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">华东地区</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，特点是</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">缺乏自备的氯碱/电石供应</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，因此位于成本曲线的高端。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">具体构成：中国有超过330万吨/年的PVC产能面临风险，其中130万吨/年依赖外部氯碱供应，超过200万吨/年依赖外部电石供应。这相当于中国PVC需求的10%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">当前市场状况：需求疲软，出口激增，库存下降</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">需求疲软：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;中国PVC表观需求（国内产量 - 净出口）在2025年上半年（1H25）同比下降</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">4%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。这主要归因于</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房地产市场的持续低迷</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（占中国PVC需求的50%）。预计未来几年需求增长将维持在**-2%至+2%** 的区间。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">出口激增：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;与疲软的国内需求形成鲜明对比的是，1H25 PVC出口量同比飙升</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">超过60%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，达到</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">210万吨（2.1Mt）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。国内产量仅小幅增长3-4万吨（30-40kt）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">出口激增原因：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;部分原因是东盟地板材料出口商为规避美国关税而进行的</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">提前发货</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">库存消耗：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;出口的大幅增长主要来自</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">消耗现有市场库存</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，导致国内库存水平下降了</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">30-50%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业对比：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;PVC的需求表现显著落后于其他主要化学品，如PP（聚丙烯）和PE（聚乙烯）在1H25分别实现了+12%和+13%的增长。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键风险：印度市场的不确定性</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">反倾销税（ADD）威胁：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年3月，印度商务部公布了对来自中国、日本、韩国和台湾地区PVC进口的拟议反倾销税。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">如果按原样实施，中国公司将面临</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">80-167美元/吨</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">的反倾销税。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">初步裁决将公司分为三档：第一档（乙烯法生产商）面临85-90美元/吨关税，第二档90-110美元/吨，第三档超过160美元/吨。第二、三档的厂商可能被排除在市场之外。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">尽管如此，专家认为第一档（乙烯法）生产商即使面临比日韩台同行更高的税率，凭借成本优势仍可能在印度市场保持竞争力，因为其他亚洲生产商可能优先将出口转向价格和供需动态更好的欧盟市场。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">BIS（印度标准局）认证威胁：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">印度的BIS质量控制令要求所有在印度销售的PVC必须符合其标准。</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目前尚无中国公司通过认证。</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2024年中国向印度出口了</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">133万吨（1.33Mt）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;PVC，占中国出口总量的</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">51%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，占印度进口总量的</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">40%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">为避免市场混乱，BIS已</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三次推迟</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">执行日期（最初2024年8月24日 -&gt; 2024年12月24日 -&gt; 2025年6月24日），</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目前定于2025年12月24日生效</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">若不再延期</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，BIS配额制度将</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">仅允许每年10万吨（100kt）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;未经认证的中国PVC进口，这将对中国出口造成毁灭性打击。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">BIS延期与否被视为影响FY26（2026财年）出口前景的最大变数。</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="4"><li><span data-marker="4."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">未来展望（FY26）：供应充足，价格区间震荡</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产能扩张：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;预计到2026年底，中国PVC总产能将达到</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">3000万吨/年（30Mtpa）</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">需求转型：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;国内需求仍处于与房地产市场脱钩的过程，并正向新应用领域（如可再生能源电缆、医疗设备等）转型。因此，</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">出口需求对前景至关重要</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">价格预测：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;考虑到国内供应充足、需求增长有限（尤其是考虑到1H25库存消耗后FY26出口可能同比下滑），以及边际生产商通过调整利用率提供价格支撑，专家预计FY26期间PVC价格将维持在</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">4300-5200元/吨</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">的区间震荡。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键驱动因素：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;印度BIS认证的延期决定将是影响价格和出口前景的最重要因素。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h2 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="l4TY2q1MCy" style="" data-dir-key="l4TY2q1MCy"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">附图关键信息</span></span></span></span></h2><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">图1：全球PVC产能增加 vs 需求增长 (Mtpa y/y)：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;显示历史及预测的全球产能增长与需求增长对比。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCU5ZoibXRz0Lb4MV6GgKsvxaWSYmIVFbNibKibQDYXaOoowRe3ECY9joPQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.432520325203252" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="615" type="block" data-imgfileid="100043661" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">图2：中国化学品表观需求同比增长%：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;按月度和年度数据对比了多种化学品（包括PE, PP, PVC, PS, ABS等）的需求增长。PVC在2025年迄今（YTD）表现最弱（-4%），显著落后于PE（+13%）和PP（+12%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">图3：中国月度PVC净进口/(出口)：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;显示中国已从净进口国转变为显著的净出口国，净出口量在2024年和2025年达到较高水平。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">图4：中国PVC出口目的地(2024)：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;清晰显示</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">印度是中国PVC出口的绝对主导市场，占51%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。其他主要目的地包括越南（9.8%）、土耳其（4.1%）、俄罗斯（3.2%）、泰国（3.5%）、尼日利亚（3.4%）、乌兹别克斯坦（3.2%）、肯尼亚（2.7%）、阿联酋（2.5%）、哈萨克斯坦（2.4%）、孟加拉国（2.3%）、马来西亚（2.3%）、埃及</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（2.1%）、印尼（1.6%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><figure></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCUlJtMibz4He2RDnKPoW0JBr3JG4ibKyMfm7Kh4K1lmcqQ10ojEJCNS0A/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5504950495049505" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="505" type="block" data-imgfileid="100043662" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总结来说，该报告描绘了一个中国PVC行业面临国内需求疲软（尤其受房地产拖累）、产能过剩（高成本产能可能自愿退出）、高度依赖出口（尤其是印度市场）但该市场正面临反倾销税和BIS认证重大风险的图景。预计未来价格将在区间内震荡，印度BIS的决定是最大不确定因素。</span></span></strong></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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