70城仅6城房价上涨！房地产疲软倒逼一线城市松绑HPR

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">由美银证券（BofA Securities）亚洲经济 | 中国团队（GEM Economics Asia | China）于2025年8月15日发布的研究报告核心内容：</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心主题：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2025年8月上半月中国经济观察，重点关注杠杆分化、消费生产活动、房地产市场动态及流动性状况。</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主要内容总结：</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">宏观杠杆率持续分化：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总体水平：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;根据中国国家统计局（CNBS）数据，2025年二季度中国宏观杠杆率小幅上升1.9个百分点，达到300.4%（名义GDP占比）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">部门分化显著：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政府部门：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;贡献了全部增长（+2个百分点），是杠杆率上升的主要驱动力。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">企业部门：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;杠杆率基本持平。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">居民部门：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;杠杆率下降0.4个百分点至61.1%，创下五年新低。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">与社融数据一致：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;这一趋势与年内社会融资总量表现相符，主要由政府债券融资和企事业单位中长期贷款增长支撑。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策展望：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;政府计划从9月起实施消费贷款利息补贴计划，预计可能在下半年对居民杠杆率起到一定的稳定作用。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">消费活动有所放缓：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">汽车销售：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;8月1-10日汽车销量同比下降4%，逆转了前几个月的增长趋势。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">电影票房：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;票房收入从暑期高峰回落。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">旅游消费：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">国内航空业收入增长势头放缓。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">7月行业收入同比下降8%（相比7月上半年的-5%），单位收入下降10%。</span></span></span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100043737" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-ratio="0.6157303370786517" data-w="445" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHC0YOHpHPdicnAwteXD4Crhj3xlLaCHw2YwBdmzHJRW1PzibIDpfeIe1Ow/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section></li></ul><figure></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">家电销售：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;线下家电销售本周走弱（图表显示同比负增长）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">生产活动喜忧参半：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">水泥：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;水泥发货率环比下降，维持在约42%的低位。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">螺纹钢：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;8月第一周螺纹钢表观消费量环比上升，超过2024年同期水平。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">挖掘机：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;7月国内挖掘机销量同比增长17.2%，连续第二个月改善。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">煤炭消耗：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;主要独立发电厂（IPP）的煤炭消耗量本周上升，但仍低于2024年水平。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100043738" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-ratio="0.5419664268585132" data-w="417" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCjJj81XghGk6UsxfHufL5zopu2u0sFNGv10fFLWwCWcpAgvmV2leEJg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><figure></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">出口：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">港口出口总量（吨）上周改善。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">集装箱出口量在8月初保持坚挺，高于上年同期水平。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）持续下跌至1490点。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="4"><li><span data-marker="4."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房地产市场持续疲软，政策微调：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">销售疲软：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;8月每周新房和二手房销售持续低于2024年水平。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">价格下跌：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;7月房价环比下跌0.31%，同比下跌3.37%。70个大中城市中，新房价格环比上涨的城市数量从6月的14个减少到7月的6个。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策放松：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;北京近期放松了郊区住房的限购政策（HPR），预计上海和深圳等其他一线城市可能跟进。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">前景预期：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;报告认为这些措施影响有限，预计房地产下行周期在短期内将持续。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="5"><li><span data-marker="5."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">流动性充裕，汇率稳定：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">货币市场：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;7天期回购利率（DR007）持续接近7天期公开市场操作（OMO）利率，显示货币市场流动性充裕。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">外汇市场：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;过去两周美元兑人民币（USDCNY）汇率保持稳定。背景是中美同意将关税休战期延长90天。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总结：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;报告描绘了2025年8月中旬中国经济的关键图景：宏观杠杆率在政府加杠杆推动下微升，但居民和企业部门杠杆分化（居民杠杆创新低）；消费活动（汽车、电影、航空、家电）普遍显现疲软迹象；生产活动表现不一（水泥弱、螺纹钢和挖掘机强、出口货运量稳但运价跌）；房地产市场销售和价格持续疲软，虽有政策微调但预期短期难改观；市场流动性保持充裕，人民币汇率在中美贸易休战背景下保持稳定。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>