8月12日AI复盘

<h1 style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.32px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 22px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);text-align: center;line-height: 1.5;margin: 16px 0px 6px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享，不构成投资建议</span></h1><h1 style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.32px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 22px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);text-align: center;line-height: 1.5;margin: 16px 0px 6px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">缩量普涨下的资金劈叉：</span><br /><span leaf="">今晚CPI定生死</span></h1><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.32px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;text-align: center;font-size: 13px;color: rgb(153, 153, 153);margin: 0px 0px 24px;"><span leaf="">沪深2.15万亿 · 超4100股飘红 · 通信净流入130亿</span></p><section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.32px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background: rgb(253, 243, 243);border-left: 4px solid rgb(176, 30, 35);padding: 16px 18px;margin: 0px 0px 32px;border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(176, 30, 35);letter-spacing: 2px;"><span leaf="">■ 一句话结论</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">沪深</span><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">2.15万亿</span></strong><span leaf="">成交，缩量1700亿，超4100股飘红。</span><strong><span leaf="">缩量普涨是存量博弈，不是增量入场。</span></strong><span leaf="">通信设备单日净流入130亿，但超大单和中单方向劈叉——</span><strong style="background: linear-gradient(transparent 60%, rgb(255, 215, 215) 60%);"><span leaf="">买和卖的不是同一批人</span></strong><span leaf="">。今晚美国CPI公布，市场对结果的定价已经极度拥挤。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.32px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin-bottom: 36px;"><section style="display: flex;align-items: center;margin-bottom: 16px;"><section style="background: rgb(176, 30, 35);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;padding: 4px 14px;border-radius: 4px;letter-spacing: 2px;"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></section><section style="flex: 1 1 0%;height: 1px;background: rgb(229, 229, 229);margin-left: 12px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><p style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;"><span leaf="">通信设备板块是今天的</span><strong><span leaf="">绝对枢纽</span></strong><span leaf="">。净流入130亿，关联板块（CPO、PCB、半导体）全线跟涨，光通信线缆细分涨了</span><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">6.05%</span></strong><span leaf="">。但资金的扩散在衰减——光伏涨了3.9%但净流入只有6.5亿，房地产是纯政策博弈。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;"><span leaf="">如果今晚CPI超预期，通信这个枢纽断裂，光通信板块单日回撤</span><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">8-15%</span></strong><span leaf="">不是夸张。韩国综指今天涨了3.68%，三星和SK海力士涨超8%，这是对英伟达叙事的全球性共振——</span><strong><span leaf="">共振上涨快，共振下跌更快。</span></strong></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050145" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gw8XMTQInQibEibluWDkOapkvbAmcCLSotEOTIzmTpTtIYSfFHib6KRcVuV5x1msTATc7hwrZR0gXznKkzXghdUUTwCATP73uZhiaw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><section style="background: rgb(247, 248, 250);border-radius: 8px;padding: 16px 18px;margin: 0px 0px 14px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(26, 115, 232);"><span leaf="">▍北向资金连续萎缩</span></strong><br /><span leaf="">从7月21日的4394亿降到8月11日的2967亿，缩水</span><strong style="color: rgb(26, 115, 232);"><span leaf="">32%</span></strong><span leaf="">。外资在这个反弹里参与力度不足。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">▍融资余额5连增</span></strong><br /><span leaf="">从25761亿增到26489亿，增了728亿——内资在加杠杆，但还没回到7月初的水平。</span></p></section><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">工业富联H1净利润237亿，同比增96%，今天</span><strong><span leaf="">不在涨幅榜</span></strong><span leaf="">。真正在AI上赚到钱的公司没有被追捧，资金通过叙事把钱错配到了亏损的光通信概念股上。</span><strong style="background: linear-gradient(transparent 60%, rgb(255, 233, 168) 60%);"><span leaf="">这是今天最大的定价偏差。</span></strong><span leaf="">光伏主材的超大单净买入占比12.67%，中单和散户在卖——机构悄悄吸筹，散户在恐慌割肉。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050146" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gxxEZabBt1uP1CtWQkgsaU4UeKQV0Z7O4zuKpvzIgwR0CPBoAYgAxoX3X1HpeufDG2AnF65fP0QMn78vMdqGCMmSc6FW6hAqib8/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.32px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin-bottom: 36px;"><section style="display: flex;align-items: center;margin-bottom: 20px;"><section style="background: rgb(176, 30, 35);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;padding: 4px 14px;border-radius: 4px;letter-spacing: 2px;"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></section><section style="flex: 1 1 0%;height: 1px;background: rgb(229, 229, 229);margin-left: 12px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">01</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;缩量1700亿的普涨不是增量入场</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span leaf="">沪深2.15万亿，比昨天少了1700亿。涨跌比超4100:1200，126只涨停，2只跌停——</span><strong><span leaf="">广度极好，但深度存疑</span></strong><span leaf="">。这种"等温膨胀"式普涨说明钱在板块间流转，没有新钱进来。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">通信板块虹吸了全市场的主要流动性，其他方向失血严重：被动元件净流出153亿、化学制剂净流出119亿、铜净流出117亿——</span><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">这些失血的板块就是通信上涨的燃料。</span></strong></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050150" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwVicL5J9dj1jw7ibCX0epc4Cuux0CUTNZCVog2IOicbs23JAAeWibp8yJgcJZzGeCtRrjQu6muLFpDXibt17CMhkBaTtK04SlRmImg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">02</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;通信130亿净流入藏着资金劈叉</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span leaf="">通信设备和通信两个板块合计净流入260亿。但拆开看：</span><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">超大单净买入98亿，中单净卖出83亿</span></strong><span leaf="">。通信线缆细分涨6.05%，中小单净卖出占比-10%。</span></p><section style="background: rgb(253, 243, 243);border-radius: 8px;padding: 12px 16px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><span leaf="">机构在拉高出货，散户在接。</span><strong><span leaf="">这不是健康的主线启动。</span></strong><span leaf="">真正的增量行情，大单小单应该同向。</span></p></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">03</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;光通信涨的是概念，不是利润</span></p><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238);border-radius: 8px;overflow: hidden;margin: 0px 0px 12px;"><section style="display: flex;background: rgb(247, 248, 250);padding: 8px 14px;font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><span style="flex: 2 1 0%;"><span leaf="">标的</span></span><span style="flex: 1.6 1 0%;"><span leaf="">涨幅</span></span><span style="flex: 2.6 1 0%;"><span leaf="">关键数据</span></span></section><section style="display: flex;padding: 9px 14px;font-size: 14px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);"><span style="flex: 2 1 0%;"><span leaf="">光X科技</span></span><span style="flex: 1.6 1 0%;color: rgb(176, 30, 35);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">+11.71%</span></span><span style="flex: 2.6 1 0%;"><span leaf="">PE -1260倍，52周+488%</span></span></section><section style="display: flex;padding: 9px 14px;font-size: 14px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);background: rgb(251, 251, 251);"><span style="flex: 2 1 0%;"><span leaf="">炬X科技</span></span><span style="flex: 1.6 1 0%;color: rgb(176, 30, 35);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">+20%</span></span><span style="flex: 2.6 1 0%;"><span leaf="">PE -395倍，60天-25%，超跌诱多</span></span></section><section style="display: flex;padding: 9px 14px;font-size: 14px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);"><span style="flex: 2 1 0%;"><span leaf="">长X光子</span></span><span style="flex: 1.6 1 0%;color: rgb(176, 30, 35);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">+20%</span></span><span style="flex: 2.6 1 0%;"><span leaf="">60天+632%，次新股炒作</span></span></section><section style="display: flex;padding: 9px 14px;font-size: 14px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);background: rgb(251, 251, 251);"><span style="flex: 2 1 0%;"><span leaf="">联X新材</span></span><span style="flex: 1.6 1 0%;color: rgb(176, 30, 35);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">+15%</span></span><span style="flex: 2.6 1 0%;"><span leaf="">PE 132倍</span></span></section><section style="display: flex;padding: 9px 14px;font-size: 14px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);"><span style="flex: 2 1 0%;"><span leaf="">宝X特</span></span><span style="flex: 1.6 1 0%;color: rgb(176, 30, 35);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">+14.29%</span></span><span style="flex: 2.6 1 0%;"><span leaf="">PE -53倍</span></span></section><section style="display: flex;padding: 9px 14px;font-size: 14px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);background: rgb(251, 251, 251);"><span style="flex: 2 1 0%;"><span leaf="">欣X科技</span></span><span style="flex: 1.6 1 0%;color: rgb(176, 30, 35);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">+13.7%</span></span><span style="flex: 2.6 1 0%;"><span leaf="">换手率32%，对倒出货</span></span></section></section><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span leaf="">这些标的的共性：</span><strong><span leaf="">大多亏损、52周涨幅惊人、换手率极高、中小市值。</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">工X富联H1净利润237亿、增96%，超微电脑销售翻倍——</span><strong><span leaf="">AI需求是真的</span></strong><span leaf="">。但A股光通信概念股没有兑现这个利润。</span><strong style="background: linear-gradient(transparent 60%, rgb(255, 215, 215) 60%);"><span leaf="">叙事把前者创造的真实需求，错误映射到了后者身上。</span></strong></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">04</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;光伏底部出现认知不对称窗口</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span leaf="">光伏主材涨3.9%，但净流入只有6.5亿。拆开看：</span><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">超大单净买入占比12.67%</span></strong><span leaf="">，通X股份等标的被悄悄吸筹；中单净卖出占比-6.46%，散户卖出占比-11.95%。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><strong><span leaf="">机构在底部收筹码，散户在恐慌割肉。</span></strong><span leaf="">这种"超大单和中单劈叉"如果持续2-3天，光伏可能成为通信退潮后的下一个方向。但行业出清周期还不确定。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050151" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwLUa9bZiaTcBg9yZIrRxiaO5KvSpxog1DfakEyxCGGVgLPpaqAhPnRQJFD4VBibboFMDaF2OoPiauaztmj8KJCAe9FD7FIhbpdHpc/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">05</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;银行流入6.2亿——今晚CPI的对冲信号</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">银行跌了0.09%，但净流入6.2亿。超大单净买入5.2亿，中小单净卖出7.6亿。机构的逻辑不复杂：</span><strong><span leaf="">今晚CPI不确定性太高，先用银行做对冲底仓。</span></strong><span leaf="">这个信号本身不说明银行要走行情，但说明有资金在做防御。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050152" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gyghWLEyfPZoIrW6mXoNmQVosdF77gUicH6zatibsmRGRRKKNka7sXCVYTrqTEGPVcGJs2waYbmMvVq0VVvBaBIyAfkibjbJ6va4s/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">06</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;今晚CPI是肥尾风险</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px;"><span leaf="">7月CPI市场共识是环比+0.1%，核心+0.2%。PCE通胀还在3.7%。利率期货定价加息概率约50%。三种场景：</span></p><section style="border-left: 3px solid rgb(176, 30, 35);background: rgb(253, 243, 243);padding: 10px 14px;margin: 0px 0px 8px;border-radius: 0px 6px 6px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">数据超预期</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;→ 加息概率跳到70%以上 → 今天追通信的资金明天集体踩踏</span></p></section><section style="border-left: 3px solid rgb(230, 162, 60);background: rgb(253, 249, 240);padding: 10px 14px;margin: 0px 0px 8px;border-radius: 0px 6px 6px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(230, 162, 60);"><span leaf="">数据符合预期</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;→ 算力叙事继续发酵，但边际效用递减</span></p></section><section style="border-left: 3px solid rgb(26, 115, 232);background: rgb(240, 246, 253);padding: 10px 14px;margin: 0px 0px 12px;border-radius: 0px 6px 6px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(26, 115, 232);"><span leaf="">数据低于预期</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;→ 全面狂欢，但会进一步拉高通胀预期</span></p></section><section style="background: rgb(43, 43, 43);border-radius: 8px;padding: 14px 18px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(240, 240, 240);"><span leaf="">德银今天的警告说得很直白：</span><strong style="color: rgb(255, 215, 215);"><span leaf="">市场在定价一个不存在的完美</span></strong><span leaf="">——同时押注强增长、温和加息、油价回落、地缘可控。容错空间几乎没有。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.32px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin-bottom: 36px;"><section style="display: flex;align-items: center;margin-bottom: 16px;"><section style="background: rgb(26, 26, 26);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;padding: 4px 14px;border-radius: 4px;letter-spacing: 2px;"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></section><section style="flex: 1 1 0%;height: 1px;background: rgb(229, 229, 229);margin-left: 12px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238);border-radius: 8px;padding: 4px 18px;"><section style="padding: 12px 0px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">□ CPI数据与市场反应</span></strong><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;"><span leaf="">今晚20:30公布。如果超预期，明天A股开盘光通信板块是否出现8%以上的单日回撤。</span></span></p></section><section style="padding: 12px 0px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">□ 通信板块资金是否继续劈叉</span></strong><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;"><span leaf="">如果超大单和中单明天同向（都买或都卖），今天的劈叉可能只是调仓。继续劈叉则确认出货。</span></span></p></section><section style="padding: 12px 0px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">□ 光伏超大单是否持续吸筹</span></strong><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;"><span leaf="">通X股份等标的是否继续出现超大单净买入、散户净卖出的劈叉。连续3天可确认底部信号。</span></span></p></section><section style="padding: 12px 0px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">□ 北向资金是否止跌回升</span></strong><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;"><span leaf="">从4394亿降到2967亿的趋势是否在明天逆转。</span></span></p></section><section style="padding: 12px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;"><strong style="color: rgb(176, 30, 35);"><span leaf="">□ 融资余额是否突破26500亿</span></strong><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;"><span leaf="">杠杆资金如果继续加，做多意愿在增强。如果融资回落，说明内资也开始犹豫。</span></span></p></section></section></section><section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.32px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin-bottom: 32px;"><section style="background: rgb(26, 26, 26);border-radius: 10px;padding: 20px 18px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;"><span leaf="">■ 这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(213, 213, 213);line-height: 1.8;"><strong style="color: rgb(127, 208, 138);"><span leaf="">情形A</span></strong><span leaf="">　CPI低于预期 + 通信明天继续放量上涨、大单小单同向买入 →&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span leaf="">通信主线确认</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;→ 可以跟踪趋势</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(213, 213, 213);line-height: 1.8;"><strong style="color: rgb(255, 154, 154);"><span leaf="">情形B</span></strong><span leaf="">　CPI超预期 + 通信板块单日回撤超8% →&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span leaf="">叙事证伪</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;→ 回避光通信概念股，转看光伏和银行方向</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(213, 213, 213);line-height: 1.8;"><strong style="color: rgb(245, 201, 123);"><span leaf="">情形C</span></strong><span leaf="">　CPI符合预期 + 通信缩量横盘 →&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span leaf="">主线仍在但动能衰减</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;→ 降仓观望</span></p></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>