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8月14日AI复盘

发布于 2026-08-14

<section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 8px 0px 28px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><h1 style="margin: 0px;font-size: 24px;line-height: 1.4;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);text-indent: 0px;text-align: center;"><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享, 不构成投资建议</span></h1><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 36px 0px 24px;text-align: center;"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 4px 18px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background: rgb(192, 57, 43);border-radius: 20px;letter-spacing: 4px;"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;section&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \&quot;Helvetica Neue\&quot;, \&quot;PingFang SC\&quot;, \&quot;Hiragino Sans GB\&quot;, \&quot;Microsoft YaHei\&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin: 36px 0px 24px; text-align: center;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;display: inline-block; padding: 4px 18px; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background: rgb(192, 57, 43); border-radius: 20px; letter-spacing: 4px;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">一句话结论</span></span></section></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 32px;padding: 18px 20px;background: rgb(253, 246, 245);border-left: 4px solid rgb(192, 57, 43);border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">上证今天几乎平盘(3927.18,+0.005%),创业板涨</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">1.12%</span></span><span leaf="">,看着是普涨,其实是</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">存量资金在小盘题材里的极致博弈</span></span><span leaf="">。光通信CPO是真金,涨停潮+净流入百亿;半导体材料涨2.3%却在出货;真正没人定价的,是</span><strong><span leaf="">埋在算力狂欢里的涨价链</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050190" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwzAOlZrpLZ9ATgtyHcarNvBtwnpJwfV2ypB4E1ecXQAicdI3meYYNrkMrlwibWicysjyrjJr3t3VWIe83VOBpghzCvXOJ50udRoQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 36px 0px 24px;text-align: center;"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 4px 18px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background: rgb(192, 57, 43);border-radius: 20px;letter-spacing: 4px;"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></span></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">▍光通信是今天唯一真金实银的枢纽</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">亨X光电一天净流入</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">31.78亿</span></span><span leaf="">,全市场第一。网X科技、剑X科技、天X通信、新X盛、中X旭创全线涨停或大涨,单日净流入合计超百亿。这是今天资金合力最强的地方,没有之一。但这条线已经涨停潮,是「已充分定价」的主线,</span><strong><span leaf="">追它的性价比在下降</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">▍资金从光通信往上游扩散,跑到芯片材料就反了</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">光通信→光模块→存储散热,这条扩散链走到半导体材料、封测时出了岔子:板块涨</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">2.3%</span></span><span leaf="">、</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">2.19%</span></span><span leaf="">,主力却净流出</span><span style="color: rgb(39, 174, 96);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">9.98亿</span></span><span leaf="">、</span><span style="color: rgb(39, 174, 96);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">9.67亿</span></span><span leaf="">。涨的是指数,流的是资金,小单接盘、大单出货。扩散到芯片上游这一步,</span><span style="background: linear-gradient(transparent 60%, rgb(253, 226, 224) 60%);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">不是衰减,是反转</span></span><span leaf="">。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">▍北向总量在涨,但成色看不出来</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">北向资金8月13日较8月12日环比大幅提升,两融沪市+117亿、深市+155亿,杠杆资金也在温和加仓。但北向这个数字是总量,主动配置和被动指数调仓没拆开。</span><strong><span leaf="">是真金还是账面,需要明天验证</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 32px;padding: 18px 20px;background: rgb(248, 248, 248);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 2px 8px;margin-right: 6px;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background: rgb(26, 26, 26);border-radius: 4px;vertical-align: 2px;"><span leaf="">未被定价的信号</span></span><span leaf="">涨价</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">南亚塑胶确认电子材料价格翻倍,玻纤布缺货最狠,铜箔、树脂跟着,PTFE正在进AI高速PCB的验证期。</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">这条链埋在算力狂欢里,没人喊。</span></strong></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 36px 0px 24px;text-align: center;"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 4px 18px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background: rgb(192, 57, 43);border-radius: 20px;letter-spacing: 4px;"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></span></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;padding: 16px 18px;border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">01</span></span><span leaf=""> 光通信/CPO是真金,但它已经透支</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">亨X光电+10.01%涨停、净流入</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">31.78亿</span></span><span leaf="">,网X科技20cm涨停、净流入20.64亿,新X盛+4.23%净流入18.33亿,中X科技+8.05%净流入15.49亿。这是今天最确定的方向,趋势和资金共振,涨停效应也最明显。问题是它已经涨停潮——涨停的次日普遍高开,高开超3%就不好追。</span><strong><span leaf="">最强的方向,不等于最好的买点。</span></strong></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050188" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gyZDPOzCGvqxzhHleq5Xh8jibGGIYePPELq6pQIIrfia7GKu87lW60bAfmPjmEYibLYOp7W3mGNS93II3rmJTXLpbvWHBoJNIZTmE/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;padding: 16px 18px;border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">02</span></span><span leaf=""> 半导体材料、封测在借题材出货</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">半导体材料涨2.3%但净流出</span><span style="color: rgb(39, 174, 96);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">9.98亿</span></span><span leaf="">,封测涨2.19%但净流出</span><span style="color: rgb(39, 174, 96);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">9.67亿</span></span><span leaf="">,制造涨0.08%流出9.32亿。涨的是指数,流的是资金,小单大幅净流入、大单大幅净流出。这和寒X纪、摩X线程营收翻倍但毛利率承压、库存激增对上了——国产算力从「能不能卖」切到「能不能赚」,机构已经用脚投票。</span><span style="background: linear-gradient(transparent 60%, rgb(253, 226, 224) 60%);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">这是出货,不是加仓点,涨得越多越要跑。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050191" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwkJRk2axRU0VwkurCcBCYQLg9p8jCoCA8vxyMBxl49sESiapYT7zicNXkrSmrHZMOKttHBGtia9VI9QBqAGBhdPciach7hdQ8WVRo/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;padding: 16px 18px;border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">03</span></span><span leaf=""> 真正的预期差在涨价链,不在已经涨停的算力硬件</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">南亚塑胶确认今年电子材料价格翻倍,玻纤布缺货最严重,铜箔、树脂紧随,PTFE进AI高速PCB验证期。这是「真景气+涨价」的顺周期逻辑,不是纯题材。相比已经炒高的算力硬件,</span><strong><span leaf="">电子材料、PCB、CCL这条链的定价还不够</span></strong><span leaf="">。中X巨石今天+5.94%、净流入</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">11.16亿</span></span><span leaf="">,玻纤已经开始有人接。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;padding: 16px 18px;border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">04</span></span><span leaf=""> 军工是全市场资金结构最干净的板块</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">军工板块净流入只有3.7亿,但</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">特大单净流入9.6亿</span></span><span leaf="">——在整体净流出的大环境下,这是稀缺信号。意味着有真实的机构配置盘在低吸,不是游资接力。军工今天涨幅才0.61%,</span><strong><span leaf="">结构比涨幅诚实</span></strong><span leaf="">。利X电子军工+电磁屏蔽方向涨停、净流入5.35亿,是这条线里的强势样本。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;padding: 16px 18px;border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">05</span></span><span leaf=""> 全球流动性在收紧,现在不是满仓追高的时候</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">日本央行9月加息概率已定价到80%,前财务官警告日元干预随时重演、套利平仓压力向全球股债汇蔓延。国内社融M2+7.7%,是温和宽信用,没有大水漫灌。这种环境里,</span><strong><span leaf="">退潮中先辨认谁在裸泳,比抢涨停重要</span></strong><span leaf="">。上证今天触及3932高点后回落收平,短期有震荡需求。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050189" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gxculxoic7hLbElsDY0GZ5ibQwXIMnSguyCnhKiccCHgByGJbcj6us4OqAgRibOGiaShuAQlM3ZdEXzfndEdwQSLQ4BDGIWWwNMF89U/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 32px;padding: 16px 18px;border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">06</span></span><span leaf=""> 20cm涨停是存量博弈,不是普涨行情</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.9;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">今天涨幅榜前40几乎清一色20cm创业板、科创板涨停加北交所30cm。博X医药、蓝X光电这类5日涨超50%的品种,风险收益比已经倒挂。长X科技20日、60日涨幅537%,次新高波动,普通人碰不得。存储散热的联X科技+11.26%、中X科技+20.01%,看着热闹,板块整体资金还在流出,</span><strong><span leaf="">只有卡位「涨价+算力」硬逻辑的才有真钱</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 36px 0px 24px;text-align: center;"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 4px 18px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background: rgb(26, 26, 26);border-radius: 20px;letter-spacing: 4px;"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></span></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 32px;"><section style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(248, 248, 248);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">▍半导体材料、封测主力是否继续净流出</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">若转净流入,「机构出货」判断作废;若继续流出,背离坐实。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(248, 248, 248);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">▍电子材料、PCB、CCL个股是否补涨</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">涨价链若纹丝不动,说明定价已充分,预期差证伪。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(248, 248, 248);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">▍军工特大单净流入能否延续</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">单日9.6亿可能是脉冲,连续两天才算机构低吸。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(248, 248, 248);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">▍北向这轮净流入的成色</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">主动配置还是被动指数调仓,拆开看才知道是真金还是账面。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(248, 248, 248);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">▍光通信龙头亨X光电次日能否站稳5日线</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);"><span leaf="">涨停次日高开低走,主线就退潮。</span></p></section></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 32px;padding: 18px 20px;background: rgb(26, 26, 26);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(216, 216, 216);"><span style="color: rgb(231, 76, 60);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">正面</span></span><span leaf="">——半导体材料、封测放量且主力转净流入,同时电子材料、PCB补涨、军工特大单延续:说明「涨价链+军工」的判断成立,可以在回调时介入这两条线,不追已经透支的光通信涨停潮。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(216, 216, 216);"><span style="color: rgb(46, 204, 113);font-weight: 600;"><span leaf="">反面</span></span><span leaf="">——光通信龙头次日高开低走,涨价链、军工纹丝不动,芯片材料反而继续放量上涨:说明高估了涨价链、错看了军工,需要回到光通信主线上重新找买点。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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