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8月18日AI复盘

发布于 2026-08-18

<section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 20px 16px;padding: 16px 18px;background: rgb(247, 243, 236);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 138, 74);border-radius: 4px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">仅作AI复盘分享, 不构成投资建议</span></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 13px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(184, 138, 74);letter-spacing: 2px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 13px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(184, 138, 74);letter-spacing: 2px;"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(42, 42, 42);"><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">今天不是高位震荡,是资金在离场。</span></strong><span leaf="">上证缩量十字星逼近 4000 点,深成指、创业板回调,3200 只股飘绿,成交 2.42 万亿放量 100 亿。但真正的矛盾不在指数,在利率——30 年期美债收益率冲到&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(184, 138, 74);"><span leaf="">5.32%</span></strong><span leaf="">,创 2007 年 6 月以来新高。长端利率抬升,全球贴现率跟着上,高久期科技正在被清算,而 AI、6G、智能驾驶还在被散户小单接住。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 28px 16px 14px;display: flex;align-items: center;"><h2 style="margin: 0px;font-size: 19px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></h2></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 28px 16px 14px;display: flex;align-items: center;"><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050292" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gyIPAiczW5lJj58V2qy2yl22HaXCib9Yjd7A2T79r0K0cQiaj3oxqCCP3uEBXciaKcZdibtmxITQvdBFvzNlRq57FEe9x8DppIaUDFA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><h2 style="margin: 0px;font-size: 19px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf=""><br /></span></h2></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 12px 16px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(251, 250, 247);border: 1px solid rgb(236, 228, 214);border-radius: 6px;"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 10px;background: rgb(184, 138, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;border-radius: 3px;font-weight: 700;margin-bottom: 8px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">枢纽判断</span></span><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">30 年期美债是今天的单一失效点。英、日两大传统买家 6 月减持美债,长端被逼空;政府赤字加 AI 巨头天量发债,供给没人接。它连着全球所有资产定价,只要继续上行,AI 应用、AIGC、6G 这些高久期板块的估值压缩没有结束,只有加速段。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 12px 16px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(251, 250, 247);border: 1px solid rgb(236, 228, 214);border-radius: 6px;"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 10px;background: rgb(184, 138, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;border-radius: 3px;font-weight: 700;margin-bottom: 8px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">轮动判断</span></span><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">钱从高位科技撤向防御和实物。智能驾驶&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">-51.8 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、AIGC&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">-51.2 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、光伏&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">-51.1 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、传感器&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">-50.8 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、AI 应用&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">-48.7 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、新能源&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">-48.8 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、电网&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">-47.5 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、6G&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">-47.6 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">,清一色净流出。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">进的却是煤炭&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+0.95 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、轨交&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+0.90 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、铁路&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+0.80 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、医疗器械&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+1.01 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;这种小步防御吸筹。</span><strong style="color: rgb(184, 138, 74);"><span leaf="">这不是进攻轮动,是撤退式调仓。</span></strong></p></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 12px 16px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(251, 250, 247);border: 1px solid rgb(236, 228, 214);border-radius: 6px;"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 10px;background: rgb(184, 138, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;border-radius: 3px;font-weight: 700;margin-bottom: 8px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">未被定价的信号</span></span><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">证金持股净流出&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">48.7 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">,特大单出货&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">31.4 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、大单&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">17.3 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">,小单承接&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">45.8 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">。大单出、小单接,这是标准的派发结构。市场还在讨论 AI 是不是主升浪,底仓性质的钱已经借科技信仰离场。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 28px 16px 14px;display: flex;align-items: center;"><h2 style="margin: 0px;font-size: 19px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></h2></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 16px;padding: 16px 18px;background: rgb(251, 250, 247);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 138, 74);border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 24px;height: 24px;line-height: 24px;text-align: center;background: rgb(184, 138, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 14px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">1</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">农业涨停潮是情绪跟风,不是利润驱动</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">秋 X 种业&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">+29.98%</span></strong><span leaf="">,20 日累计 +80.67%,PE 284.81 倍。神 X 种业 +20.04%,PE 56.31 倍。天 X 生物 +20.04%,市净率&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">84.06 倍</span></strong><span leaf="">——一家亏损公司,84 倍市净率还在涨停。买家买的不是厄尔尼诺,是明天有人更高价接盘的预期。华 X 生物 PE 只有 15.72 倍、天 X 食品还在亏损,却也一起涨。这说明整条农业链是情绪推着走的跟风行情,不是利润带出来的独立行情。</span><strong style="color: rgb(184, 138, 74);"><span leaf="">追涨停种子股,等于给 84 倍 PB 的亏损企业送流动性。</span></strong></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050293" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwYDL2ru82qY9HXDZqPFW4UfS6TcVLKZzibXdcKhcnoHaVnAf2UMjs10WPRr1x3KWwjibSjwSWRJ5B8ib9Du09Kia0UchewBtWuxdk/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 16px;padding: 16px 18px;background: rgb(251, 250, 247);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 138, 74);border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 24px;height: 24px;line-height: 24px;text-align: center;background: rgb(184, 138, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 14px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">2</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">算力账是卖方在算钱,买方在出逃</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">大摩今天发报告,算中国云厂算力 ROIC 13%-20%、3 年回本,看涨阿里 45%、目标价 780 港币卖腾讯。同一时间,A 股算力、应用、6G 遭遇全市场最猛的主力净流出。研报发布时机和主力出货节奏共振,是叙事被当成了武器。中 X 联通中报更直接:营收 2014 亿仅 +0.6%,净利 94.7 亿&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">-34.6%</span></strong><span leaf="">,人工成本 +19.3%,算力资本开支占比 37%、同比增超 80%。营收原地踏步,利润三七折,资本开支翻倍砸算力。芯 X 股份营收 +91.37%、亏损同步扩大——</span><strong style="color: rgb(184, 138, 74);"><span leaf="">收入是幻觉,现金流才是判决书。</span></strong></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050294" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwB1NhyaWc4BMRvI5tP0SrthTbanDss21U3af8NkpFsnW2DyCaBQtF6vVUhgQFl5jkVW8WPKm8Dgr9sYHiclnlynzhYKibw2spcc/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 16px;padding: 16px 18px;background: rgb(251, 250, 247);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 138, 74);border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 24px;height: 24px;line-height: 24px;text-align: center;background: rgb(184, 138, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 14px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">3</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">277 倍 PE 的新股,是周期顶部的样本</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">N 频 X 准科创板首日&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">+516.44%</span></strong><span leaf="">,发行价 186.88 元、收 1152 元,PE 276.83 倍,换手 81.22%,成交 72.72 亿,主力净流入只有 3.55 亿。81% 筹码一天换手,69.10 亿主力流出、72.65 亿流入,这是博傻接力。一家 2025 年营收 4.18 亿的公司,首日打到总市值 460.8 亿,把未来三五年业绩一天折现给一级和打新者。高位放量、指数走弱、3200 家下跌,筹码正从强手转向弱手。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 16px;padding: 16px 18px;background: rgb(251, 250, 247);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 138, 74);border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 24px;height: 24px;line-height: 24px;text-align: center;background: rgb(184, 138, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 14px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">4</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">真正的预期差在低 PE 实物资产,不在涨停种子股</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">资金抱团方向里,煤炭&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+0.95 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、轨交&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+0.90 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、铁路&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+0.80 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、医疗器械&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+1.01 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、小家电&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+0.95 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">,全是低换手防御吸筹。这些方向被骂没弹性,但估值里没勾兑云收入、算力收入这类永远落不到净利润表的词。2026 年的安全边际不是市盈率,是现金存续期乘实物护城河。</span><strong style="color: rgb(184, 138, 74);"><span leaf="">能在 5% 利率里活三年的生意,才有非对称赔率。</span></strong></p></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 16px;padding: 16px 18px;background: rgb(251, 250, 247);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 138, 74);border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 24px;height: 24px;line-height: 24px;text-align: center;background: rgb(184, 138, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 14px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">5</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">硬件制造在吸金,软件应用在失血</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">AI 应用、AIGC、6G、智能驾驶在净流出,京 X 方 A 却&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">+6.41%</span></strong><span leaf="">、主力净流入&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(46, 125, 82);"><span leaf="">8.97 亿</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;全市场最高,量比 2.17、5/10/20/60 日趋势全正。芯 X 微装 60 日 +53.6%,量比 1.38。蓝 X 科技 +5.76%、量比 2.03,拓 X 科技 +5.07%、中 X 公司 +2.71%。钱离开的是高估值应用软件端,躲进的是有订单、有真金流入的硬件制造端。但这不是让你追高——蓝 X 科技 60 日才刚转正、京 X 方 A 当天没封板,</span><strong style="color: rgb(184, 138, 74);"><span leaf="">等回踩才是买点。</span></strong></p></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 16px;padding: 16px 18px;background: rgb(251, 250, 247);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 138, 74);border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 24px;height: 24px;line-height: 24px;text-align: center;background: rgb(184, 138, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 14px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">6</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">上证逼近 4000 是高位滞涨,不是突破前夜</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">上证 3990.30&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">+0.19%</span></strong><span leaf="">,冲高 3994、探低 3955、收 3990,缩量十字星,距 4000 点约 10 点。前一日放量大涨 1.41%,今天高位滞涨。深成指 -0.56%、创业板 -0.92%,权重护盘、成长退潮。形态最像 7 月 14 日到 21 日——7 月 21 日大阳后,7 月 22 日冲高回落,随后震荡、没有主升。</span><strong style="color: rgb(184, 138, 74);"><span leaf="">单日大阳后防冲高回落,当前位置不宜重仓追涨。</span></strong></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050295" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gyZvAjuGEtXQ6OyGcDNibF0QjwibdNrkTdnhHvBB4SibibkZH3HjCy0Nnqm30KYbj8NFRRX4gnYCNGTGQ8UDiaSHiaEiaQH5E09J3JqZ4/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 28px 16px 14px;display: flex;align-items: center;"><h2 style="margin: 0px;font-size: 19px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></h2></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 12px 16px;padding: 14px 16px;border: 1px solid rgb(236, 228, 214);border-radius: 6px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 20px;height: 20px;line-height: 20px;text-align: center;background: rgb(31, 42, 68);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 12px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">1</span></span><span leaf="">科技主力净流出是否延续——AIGC / AI 应用 / 6G 转正则派发判断证伪,继续净流出则坐实。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 20px;height: 20px;line-height: 20px;text-align: center;background: rgb(31, 42, 68);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 12px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">2</span></span><span leaf="">30 年美债是否继续上行——回落则利率收紧判断要修正,站稳 5.3% 上方则清算加速。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 20px;height: 20px;line-height: 20px;text-align: center;background: rgb(31, 42, 68);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 12px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">3</span></span><span leaf="">农业涨停是否分化——秋 X 种业等炸板回落则跟风顶部成立,继续封板则情绪还有惯性。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 20px;height: 20px;line-height: 20px;text-align: center;background: rgb(31, 42, 68);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 12px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">4</span></span><span leaf="">京 X 方 A 的 8.97 亿净流入是否延续——次日反手流出,硬件吸金判断证伪。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="display: inline-block;width: 20px;height: 20px;line-height: 20px;text-align: center;background: rgb(31, 42, 68);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 50%;font-size: 12px;font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">5</span></span><span leaf="">上证能否放量站上 4000——缩量滞涨则高位判断成立,放量突破则要修正。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 28px 16px 14px;display: flex;align-items: center;"><h2 style="margin: 0px;font-size: 19px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(31, 42, 68);"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></h2></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 12px 16px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(241, 247, 242);border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(212, 232, 216) rgb(212, 232, 216) rgb(212, 232, 216) rgb(46, 125, 82);border-image: initial;border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 10px;background: rgb(46, 125, 82);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;border-radius: 3px;font-weight: 700;margin-bottom: 8px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">正面 · 判断被证伪</span></span><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">美债收益率回落、科技主力净流出收窄或转正、京 X 方 A 等硬件净流入延续、农业涨停分化——那今天只是高位震荡里的假摔,可以沿硬件制造和低 PE 实物资产低吸。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 12px 16px;padding: 14px 16px;background: rgb(251, 241, 240);border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(236, 207, 203) rgb(236, 207, 203) rgb(236, 207, 203) rgb(192, 57, 43);border-image: initial;border-radius: 0px 8px 8px 0px;"><span style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 10px;background: rgb(192, 57, 43);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;border-radius: 3px;font-weight: 700;margin-bottom: 8px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">反面 · 派发坐实</span></span><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">美债站稳 5.3% 上方继续上、科技净流出扩大、证金持股继续出货、上证放量跌破 3955——那派发坐实,高位科技全面回避,等利率见顶再谈。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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