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8月19日AI复盘

发布于 2026-08-19

<section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.5px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 24px 0px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><section style="display: flex;align-items: center;margin-bottom: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享, 不构成投资建议。</span></span></section><section style="display: flex;align-items: center;margin-bottom: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></span></section><section style="background: rgb(250, 246, 240);border-left: 4px solid rgb(192, 57, 43);padding: 14px 16px;border-radius: 0px 4px 4px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px;color: rgb(74, 74, 74);"><span leaf="">今天不是利空砸盘,是对三个月「AI硬件+算力+存储」拥挤交易的集中清算。沪指</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">-2.40%</span></span><span leaf="">收</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">3894.42</span></span><span leaf="">,深成指</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">-5.01%</span></span><span leaf="">收</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">13890.15</span></span><span leaf="">,创业板</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">-6.26%</span></span><span leaf="">,超5000股飘绿,成交</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">2.51万亿</span></span><span leaf="">、放量1100亿。导火索是海力士回购注销40万亿韩元——散户当利好,市场用半导体</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">-7.37%</span></span><span leaf="">、印制电路板</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">-7.86%</span></span><span leaf="">的长阴回答:</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">涨价是原厂对下游的税单,不是产业链的红利。</span></span><span leaf="">钱在逃向现金流,不认故事。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050317" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gxLFLoYZJnotOT8EUgtoq8XTxApJ2Eb2Zm7rOia58s7HiadhTfTQbCVVTaNia3V3DyoGPMaGEeSqeLRpMBuVia4ibpVB9iaic5ic4KMEy8/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section></section><section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.5px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 28px 0px;"><section style="display: flex;align-items: center;margin-bottom: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(192, 57, 43);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;padding: 1px 8px;border-radius: 2px;margin-right: 6px;"><span leaf="">枢纽判断</span></span></p><p style="margin: 8px 0px 0px;"><span leaf="">存储涨价传导链是今天的</span><strong><span leaf="">单一失效点</span></strong><span leaf="">。海力士回购的底气,是它作为原厂吃涨价红利;A股的存储模组、PCB、服务器组装,全是成本承受方。小米Q2净利</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">-42.6%</span></span><span leaf="">、存储吃掉30亿毛利、手机毛利率从11.5%滑到8.5%,就是物理证据。这条链连着半导体、PCB、通信、电子,今天全线净流出、领跌全市场。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050311" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gxfwl0jxJOBx7YKwlcdKicOauicStC0Fe4tSKEvq1rjsOouIYUu0toalibjCOzWDsFmejgY5ibDERP5jqZuhnXdTApM9k7ibSM4HQE8/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(192, 57, 43);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;padding: 1px 8px;border-radius: 2px;margin-right: 6px;"><span leaf="">轮动判断</span></span></p><p style="margin: 8px 0px 0px;"><span leaf="">钱从算力泡沫逃向现金流实物。电子</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);"><span leaf="">-746.70亿</span></span><span leaf="">、半导体</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);"><span leaf="">-363.58亿</span></span><span leaf="">、通信</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);"><span leaf="">-271.49亿</span></span><span leaf="">、通信设备</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);"><span leaf="">-258.24亿</span></span><span leaf="">,清一色净流出。进的却是煤炭</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+11.79亿</span></span><span leaf="">、焦炭</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+6.81亿</span></span><span leaf="">、黄金</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+4.32亿</span></span><span leaf="">、航运港口</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+5.74亿</span></span><span leaf="">。这不是风格切换,是</span><strong><span leaf="">风险偏好的坍缩</span></strong><span leaf="">——存量博弈里,市场开始只认物理现金流,不认PPT算力。</span></p></section><section style="background: rgb(240, 244, 248);border-left: 4px solid rgb(44, 95, 138);padding: 14px 16px;border-radius: 0px 4px 4px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(44, 95, 138);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;padding: 1px 8px;border-radius: 2px;margin-right: 6px;"><span leaf="">未被定价的信号</span></span></p><p style="margin: 8px 0px 0px;color: rgb(74, 74, 74);"><span leaf="">今晚</span><strong><span leaf="">160亿美元长债拍卖加鹰派纪要</span></strong><span leaf="">,悬在头顶。长端收益率一旦上移,全球高估值科技的贴现率同步抬升,这是对A股算力链的第二记闷棍。今天收盘前,这个风险还没被定价。</span></p></section></section><section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.5px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 28px 0px;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="display: inline-block;font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(192, 57, 43);padding-bottom: 6px;"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 22px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(192, 57, 43);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 13px;font-weight: bold;width: 22px;height: 22px;line-height: 22px;text-align: center;border-radius: 50%;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">1</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">存储涨价的受益方不在A股,错杀在上游替代</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">海力士回购40万亿韩元、承诺50%现金流回馈股东,底气来自它作为存储原厂吃到的涨价红利。但这笔钱A股拿不到——存储模组、PCB、服务器组装是成本承受方,不是受益方。小米30亿「内存税」白纸黑字写清了物理传导:</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">原厂吃肉,组装厂吃灰。</span></span><span leaf="">今天半导体</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">-7.37%</span></span><span leaf="">,是市场突然想明白了这道小学算术。</span></p><p style="margin: 10px 0px 0px;"><span leaf="">但物理事实还有另一面:涨价周期里,能拿到原厂产能、有国产替代逻辑的</span><strong><span leaf="">上游材料、设备、晶圆厂</span></strong><span leaf="">,才是真正的红利捕获者。市场用一根大阴线把全链条一起清算,这里藏着结构性错杀。要分辨的是谁站在成本传导链上游、谁的库存是「资产增值」而不是「成本侵蚀」,不是去抄底PCB。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050312" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gw5WM4iaL6Bn3JxwibSC7iaicM1q9Bug5penm5uQ9LyT07icXS3XYxsRR4WnibaaJiauZKHdsjTLg9q65oicibL8l6rMvAXaLYnAQjNqncg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 22px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(192, 57, 43);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 13px;font-weight: bold;width: 22px;height: 22px;line-height: 22px;text-align: center;border-radius: 50%;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">2</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">AI叙事裂开第一道缝</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">OpenAI二季度收入67亿,增速只有18%,亏损扩大;Anthropic同期115亿,环比</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">+140%</span></span><span leaf="">,完成反超。这不是AI灭亡,是</span><strong><span leaf="">「先发优势」的破产</span></strong><span leaf="">——后发者用更低的推理成本、更好的后训练,在完成降维打击。再叠上「AI会重演19世纪铁路泡沫吗」的讨论、BTIG「抢椅子游戏随时结束」的警示,华尔街自己在为撤退铺台阶。</span></p><p style="margin: 10px 0px 0px;"><span leaf="">给A股算力信仰者的提醒:</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">押注的算力基建,可能在技术路线切换中被物理证伪。</span></span><span leaf="">后训练替代堆参数量,钱比算力先断裂。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050313" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gyqBGVtZyTFZFHy0v01LbZUWYfn5vvibLa0zoOLLpem75z9Tmj2MY4rdPzYRSm1JVUgpXvT4o5KLZGwNgG3uU50uUezAQdjhAPk/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 22px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(192, 57, 43);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 13px;font-weight: bold;width: 22px;height: 22px;line-height: 22px;text-align: center;border-radius: 50%;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">3</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">宇X科技IPO是独苗狂欢,机械板块陪葬</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">宇X科技上市首日</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">+460.34%</span></span><span leaf="">,收845元,市值3417.72亿,PE 584.99倍,换手85.28%。这不是估值,是</span><strong><span leaf="">筹码游戏</span></strong><span leaf="">。更致命的是,机械设备板块今日净流出</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);"><span leaf="">128.79亿</span></span><span leaf="">——一颗星的狂欢,以抽干整个板块流动性为代价。历史上每一次新股暴利,都对应同题材流动性被抽干。</span></p><p style="margin: 10px 0px 0px;"><span leaf="">当所有资金都去追那颗最亮的星,被遗忘在角落的、有真实现金流的防御资产,恰恰是下一轮接力的候选。这是</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">「卖在人声鼎沸处」的教科书信号</span></span><span leaf="">。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050314" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gzn83Zl8mVquvvQlHWnwh45bYg6U2KZiaGIHThFkWR59Y4n6kPDLR1FicATUra046hbE0TF5LwggBC1UGzNm5X3vciaibe77eUrM9A/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 22px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(192, 57, 43);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 13px;font-weight: bold;width: 22px;height: 22px;text-align: center;border-radius: 50%;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">4</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">银行假逆势,真防御在资源和实物现金流</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">银行</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">+1.46%</span></span><span leaf="">,全场唯一逆势飘红。但拆开看,超大单净流出3.94亿,主力整体净流出3.90亿——抬升银行的是中小单避险,聪明钱没进场。</span><strong><span leaf="">这是risk-off的惯性,不是risk-on的选择。</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 10px 0px 0px;"><span leaf="">真正的资金抱团在资源和实物:煤炭</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+11.79亿</span></span><span leaf="">、焦炭</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+6.81亿</span></span><span leaf="">、黄金</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+4.32亿</span></span><span leaf="">、航运</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+5.74亿</span></span><span leaf="">。恒X石化PE 12.29、60日</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+40.24%</span></span><span leaf="">,招X轮船PE 18.99、年涨</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+113.06%</span></span><span leaf="">,山X黄金PE 29.13,中X石油PE 12.97,农X银行PE 8.05、PB 0.85——这些是「物理现金流」资产。布伦特原油四连涨、站上91.30美元,前三日累计涨4.5%,是通胀的物理锚,会从成本端二次压缩中下游制造业利润。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050315" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gzK7mUxiazbzqPIIFfYfic3ibelJ19FwBR5O8QDJLibYtNPyH6VRkzx0EITicxXicytKD3b39KVZIm4kbaQeI9EmDQxUdicrH7DwtrugY/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 22px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(192, 57, 43);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 13px;font-weight: bold;width: 22px;height: 22px;line-height: 22px;text-align: center;border-radius: 50%;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">5</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">低价涨停的煤炭焦炭是情绪炒作,不是高赢率</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">美X能源、大X能源、陕X黑猫、宝X隆、金X米业,今天集体涨停。但翻基本面:美X能源、大X能源、陕X黑猫、宝X隆PE全为负,金X米业PE -962还在</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+9.99%</span></span><span leaf="">。</span><strong><span leaf="">全是游资情绪炒作、基本面亏损。</span></strong><span leaf="">它们证明的是「资金在找避风港」,不证明「这些公司值得买」。</span></p><p style="margin: 10px 0px 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">暴跌日追涨停,等于给亏损企业送流动性。</span></span><span leaf="">方向参考可以,买入候选不算。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050316" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gxb03EcumxZv1T2ltOic3S8lkWnNIweSWBkm6S4Zqmb2ibAB1bv9AnrUFOvdwzMO3lCbST73ueBGAzsw7K6iaD4VKQARkMeF59w0M/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 22px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(192, 57, 43);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 13px;font-weight: bold;width: 22px;height: 22px;text-align: center;border-radius: 50%;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">6</span></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">冲关4000失败的多杀多,情绪退潮未结束</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">上证8/17反弹</span><span style="color: rgb(214, 48, 49);"><span leaf="">+1.41%</span></span><span leaf="">、8/18冲到3999回落、今天3894放量长阴,冲高失败反手杀跌,前两天的反弹被一根阴线全吞。机器人板块</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">-9.58%</span></span><span leaf="">、航天装备</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 68);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">-7.56%</span></span><span leaf="">是重灾区,资金从高估值成长抽离。</span></p><p style="margin: 10px 0px 0px;"><span leaf="">一个数据缺口要说明:涨停数、连板率的接口今天没有返回,情绪四阶段无法精确判定,只能定性为「退潮/崩溃风险释放期」。这个定性意味着,</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">后续大概率还有1-3天的风险释放和缩量企稳确认,第一要务是保住本金。</span></span></p></section></section><section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.5px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 28px 0px;"><section style="display: flex;align-items: center;margin-bottom: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></span></section><section style="background: rgb(247, 247, 247);padding: 16px 18px;border-radius: 4px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><strong style="color: rgb(44, 95, 138);"><span leaf="">①</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong><span leaf="">半导体、PCB是否止跌</span></strong><span leaf="">——若资金回流科技、净流出收窄,则「清算」判断证伪;继续净流出则坐实。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><strong style="color: rgb(44, 95, 138);"><span leaf="">②</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong><span leaf="">银行是否补跌</span></strong><span leaf="">——+1.46%若次日转跌,则「假逆势」成立;继续走强则防御惯性还没断。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><strong style="color: rgb(44, 95, 138);"><span leaf="">③</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong><span leaf="">长债拍卖结果</span></strong><span leaf="">——长端收益率上移,高估值科技二次承压;回落则贴现率压力缓解。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><strong style="color: rgb(44, 95, 138);"><span leaf="">④</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong><span leaf="">煤炭焦炭涨停是否分化</span></strong><span leaf="">——炸板回落则情绪炒作见顶,继续封板则资源抱团有惯性。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><strong style="color: rgb(44, 95, 138);"><span leaf="">⑤</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong><span leaf="">宇X科技次日走势</span></strong><span leaf="">——高开低走则情绪顶点成立,继续冲高则新股博弈未结束。</span></p></section></section><section style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.5px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 28px 0px;"><section style="display: flex;align-items: center;margin-bottom: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></span></section><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(224, 201, 166);background: rgb(253, 250, 244);padding: 16px 18px;border-radius: 4px;margin-bottom: 12px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><strong style="color: rgb(184, 134, 11);"><span leaf="">正面:</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">半导体、PCB止跌企稳,科技主力净流出收窄或转正,银行补跌坐实假逆势,长债收益率回落——那今天是恐慌性错杀,</span><strong><span leaf="">上游替代和低PE资源可以低吸</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p></section><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 184, 184);background: rgb(253, 245, 245);padding: 16px 18px;border-radius: 4px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><strong style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">反面:</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">长端收益率站稳高位继续上,科技净流出扩大,银行继续假逆势,宇X科技次日出货,上证放量跌破3900——那清算加速,</span><strong><span leaf="">高估值成长全面回避,等利率见顶、情绪企稳再谈</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p></section></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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