官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

8月20日AI复盘

发布于 2026-08-20

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享,不构成投资建议。</span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4100 股飘红、医药 20cm 涨停潮,看着像反弹,拆开是撤退。</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;两市成交&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">2.08 万亿</span></span><span leaf="">,比昨天缩了&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">4300 亿</span></span><span leaf="">——卖盘消失了,不是买盘进场了。套牢盘装死,浮筹观望,游资用更少的钱拉出更大的涨幅。三大指数低开高走,上证&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">+0.24%</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;收 3903.72、创业板&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">+0.64%</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;收 3495.59,反弹力度不足昨日阴线的一半。</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">这是恐慌后的修复,不是进攻。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050325" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gxkZoh1B0KdeaGe5VxLBVgLpI0JutSzbicLGdiaSPnFibVJjV0I8OzsRoPArAbMTngewNryic6FqAydStascMclib78pJdIxWIUgbb8/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p><span style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;background: rgb(212, 53, 28);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;font-weight: 700;width: 26px;height: 26px;line-height: 26px;text-align: center;border-radius: 50%;margin-right: 10px;"><span leaf="">1</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><span style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 19px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">枢纽判断&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 11px;color: rgb(153, 153, 153);font-weight: 400;"><span leaf="">单一路径 · 最大脆弱点</span></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">医药是今天的单一枢纽,也是最大的脆弱点。疫苗、CXO、基因测序全线 20cm,但 5 日主力资金</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">全是净流出</span></span><span leaf="">:石 X 创新&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-42.9 亿</span></span><span leaf="">、沃 X 生物&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-17.5 亿</span></span><span leaf="">、华 X 智造&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-12.6 亿</span></span><span leaf="">、康 X 生物&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-8.4 亿</span></span><span leaf="">,思 X 浦连当天都在出货。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050326" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gxrawmrZuCYL3hNkdibQPuMBfOIt8GCvvDIWkmYEZ7ESVib8OGPEapTUWVdOicHRfUCBSTSLIibdEmROA2qkqWT0Gk18Tojxunibvgs/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;"><span style="background: linear-gradient(transparent 60%, rgb(255, 232, 154) 60%);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">涨停潮是流动性表演,主力中期方向是离场。</span></span><span leaf="">这个枢纽一旦断裂,就是涨停板另一端直接接跌停板。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf="">轮动判断&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 11px;color: rgb(153, 153, 153);font-weight: 400;"><span leaf="">游牧式收割</span></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">钱从半导体、新能源、AI 算力里</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">系统性撤离</span></span><span leaf="">,去堆盘子小、当日能涨停、便于叙事的医药。中芯概念&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-34.1 亿</span></span><span leaf="">、MLCC&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-36.1 亿</span></span><span leaf="">、数据中心&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-31.4 亿</span></span><span leaf="">、固态电池&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-31.2 亿</span></span><span leaf="">、储能&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-29.6 亿</span></span><span leaf="">、华为概念&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-29.0 亿</span></span><span leaf="">,清一色净流出。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050327" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwlvce7IoddTjs0CibWW49lXlPYSHBrfJajTs3NIJLu8icde0icSwGqK4CB4KfOfPPNL7hblDkERmDRNhVLIT1bYv1t5Kmbs8O0Lc/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">真正的买盘在黄金和实物:紫 X 矿业单日&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">+21.76 亿</span></span><span leaf="">,铅锌、农化、种植这些冷门板块默默净流入。</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">这不是风格切换,是存量博弈里打一枪换一个地方的游牧式收割。</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">未被定价的信号&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 11px;color: rgb(153, 153, 153);font-weight: 400;"><span leaf="">能源链被遗忘</span></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">全球柴油价格破&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">7 美元</span></span><span leaf="">,霍尔木兹海峡物理受阻,全球&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">8%</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;柴油供应受限。但 A 股油气设服净流出&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">3514 万</span></span><span leaf="">、可燃冰净流出&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">3787 万</span></span><span leaf="">。能源链被资金彻底遗忘,脑袋里只剩下 AI、医药、机器人这些轻资产叙事。</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">这个物理约束今天没进价。<img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050328" data-ratio="0.2404692082111437" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gzia4bzjnxzxWOVp6jwJnocFxpqWPWtEMvcvxvLeNeDaMlOOeYAqRyzEQsBctIIKxKPdn6xDCeZ0SibG7lPmFZjbDuCwpzFqVprY/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1023" type="block"></span></span></p><p><span style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;background: rgb(212, 53, 28);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;font-weight: 700;width: 26px;height: 26px;line-height: 26px;text-align: center;border-radius: 50%;margin-right: 10px;"><span leaf="">2</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><span style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 19px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></span></p><p><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(44, 44, 44);color: rgb(240, 192, 32);font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;width: 30px;height: 30px;line-height: 30px;text-align: center;border-radius: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">01</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">医药涨停潮是主力撤退的烟花,不是基本面反转</span></p><p><span leaf="">催化是 Moderna 的 mRNA 个性化癌症疫苗消息,华尔街三大行齐声唱多。但个性化定制疫苗商业化门槛极高,唱多的投行自己在报告里都承认。A 股资金不需要商业化,只需要一个"mRNA"符号点燃做多情绪。</span><br /><br /><span leaf="">当一个板块要靠海外单一公司的研发新闻来驱动 20cm 涨停潮,说明它自身基本面已经给不出上涨理由。</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">5 日主力净流出摆在那里,今天拉板是给散户的撤退台阶。</span></span></p><p><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(44, 44, 44);color: rgb(240, 192, 32);font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;width: 30px;height: 30px;line-height: 30px;text-align: center;border-radius: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">02</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">半导体系统性失血,光通信是唯一剩下的物理受益</span></p><p><span leaf="">阿里 Q2 资本开支&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">676.78 亿</span></span><span leaf="">、自由现金流净流出&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">447 亿</span></span><span leaf="">,AI 收入连续 12 季度三位数增长;Meta 每年向 Azure 投数亿美元。全球 AI 军备竞赛没熄火,真正物理受益的是光模块、光纤、光器件。</span><br /><br /><span leaf="">但太 X 光今天换手&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">20.45%</span></span><span leaf="">、5 日&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">+42.53%</span></span><span leaf="">,5 日主力净流出&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">117 亿</span></span><span leaf="">——这是天量对倒换手,出货阶段特征。半导体在抽血,光通信在余温里拉高出货,</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">这个板块只可持有不可新买。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050329" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwicj5QsbiaUsoXh6ibvHMibOflxrrfqJDialkiag109WW8a4fZRYTs7ibrs9uub1bxUIvf7FLUIB8pqhFqppsqLgGxyia8j8401JhFo1o/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(44, 44, 44);color: rgb(240, 192, 32);font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;width: 30px;height: 30px;line-height: 30px;text-align: center;border-radius: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">03</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">黄金和实物现金流,是今天唯一真实的承接</span></p><p><span leaf="">紫 X 矿业&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">+21.76 亿</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;单日净流入,赤 X 黄金、山 X 国际同步走强,铅锌、农化、种植、聚氨酯这些冷门板块默默承接。KNN 情绪镜像指向 2026-07-17 之后的路径:暴跌次日小反弹 → 第 2-3 日脉冲 → 随后二次回踩。</span><br /><br /><span leaf="">这种环境下,</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">资金只认物理现金流,不认叙事。黄金是最确定的避风港。</span></span></p><p><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(44, 44, 44);color: rgb(240, 192, 32);font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;width: 30px;height: 30px;line-height: 30px;text-align: center;border-radius: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">04</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">缩量普涨是伪反弹,量能是明天的生死线</span></p><p><span leaf="">成交从约&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">2.51 万亿</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;缩到&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">2.08 万亿</span></span><span leaf="">,</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-17%</span></span><span leaf="">。涨停 79 只、炸板 46 只、炸板率&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">36.8%</span></span><span leaf="">,连板率只有&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">3.8%</span></span><span leaf="">,最高才 4 板,全是首板低位补涨,没人敢打高度。</span><br /><br /><span leaf="">指数红盘、主力净流出,</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">这是最标准的伪反弹结构。</span></span><span leaf="">场景推演:如果明天补不上量,未来 5 个交易日内医药出现单日&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">-10%</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;以上的分化清算,</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">概率不低于 40%。</span></span></p><p><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(44, 44, 44);color: rgb(240, 192, 32);font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;width: 30px;height: 30px;line-height: 30px;text-align: center;border-radius: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">05</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">能源链物理错杀,是最大的预期差</span></p><p><span leaf="">柴油&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">7 美元</span></span><span leaf="">、霍尔木兹受阻、美伊对抗升级、阿联酋全面禁运,这是实打实的航运阻断和炼油产能锁死,不是券商研报。A 股能源链却在净流出。</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">等通胀数据重新抬头、CPI 重新成为焦点,能源板块会以踩踏式补涨。</span></span><span leaf="">现在这些标的的价格里,没给"霍尔木兹持续受阻"这一场景定过价。</span></p><p><span style="display: inline-block;background: rgb(44, 44, 44);color: rgb(240, 192, 32);font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;width: 30px;height: 30px;line-height: 30px;text-align: center;border-radius: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">06</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">比特币逼空背后,是法币信用在折价</span></p><p><span leaf="">单小时爆空&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">10 亿美元</span></span><span leaf="">,2021 年以来最大平仓潮。特朗普会见加密高管、SEC 拟豁免数字资产注册。这不是一个币的事,</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">是全球流动性为"法币信用折价"找出口。</span></span><br /><br /><span leaf="">映射回 A 股,黄金、数字货币主题今天已经活跃。当全球资金用脚对法币投票,账面资产漂亮但变现依赖信贷膨胀的公司,</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">抵押品价值在无声蒸发。</span></span><span leaf="">这跟黄金走强是同一条逻辑链。</span></p><p><span style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;background: rgb(212, 53, 28);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;font-weight: 700;width: 26px;height: 26px;line-height: 26px;text-align: center;border-radius: 50%;margin-right: 10px;"><span leaf="">3</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><span style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 19px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></span></p><p><span style="float: left;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(44, 44, 44);margin-right: 10px;"><span leaf="">1.</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">成交能否回到&nbsp;</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">2.3 万亿</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;以上——补量则修复延续,继续缩量则医药涨停潮面临</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">流动性悬崖</span></span><span leaf="">。</span></p><p><span style="float: left;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(44, 44, 44);margin-right: 10px;"><span leaf="">2.</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">医药 5 日主力净流出是否收窄——收窄转正则"撤退"判断</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">证伪</span></span><span leaf="">,继续放大则</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">坐实</span></span><span leaf="">。</span></p><p><span style="float: left;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(44, 44, 44);margin-right: 10px;"><span leaf="">3.</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">半导体、算力是否止跌——净流出收窄说明撤退告一段落,扩大则</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">抽血未结束</span></span><span leaf="">。</span></p><p><span style="float: left;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(44, 44, 44);margin-right: 10px;"><span leaf="">4.</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">太 X 光次日走势——高开低走则对倒出货</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">坐实</span></span><span leaf="">,继续冲高则光通信余温未尽。</span></p><p><span style="float: left;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(44, 44, 44);margin-right: 10px;"><span leaf="">5.</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">能源链资金是否回流——油气设服、可燃冰若出现净流入,说明市场开始</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">定价物理约束</span></span><span leaf="">。</span></p><p><span leaf="">▲ 什么情况下需要修正(正面)</span></p><p><span leaf="">明天成交补量至&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);font-weight: 700;"><span leaf="">2.3 万亿</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;以上、医药 5 日主力净流出收窄甚至转正、半导体止跌企稳、黄金继续走强——那今天是恐慌后的真实修复,黄金和实物现金流方向可以低吸,</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">医药只做回踩承接不追涨停</span></span><span leaf="">。</span></p><p><span leaf="">▼ 什么情况下需要修正(反面)</span></p><p><span leaf="">成交继续缩量、医药涨停潮变跌停潮、半导体净流出扩大、连板率继续趴在 5% 以下——那伪反弹坐实,按 KNN 镜像走</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">二次回踩</span></span><span leaf="">,反弹是高位股的减仓点,</span><span style="font-weight: 700;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">只留黄金和实物现金流防守</span></span><span leaf="">。</span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库