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8月21日AI复盘

发布于 2026-08-21

<p><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享,不构成投资建议。</span></p><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(250, 248, 243);border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);border-radius: 0px 6px 6px 0px;padding: 14px 16px;margin: 0px 0px 8px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 13px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(197, 160, 89);letter-spacing: 2px;"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">上证</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+0.04%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">收3905.20,创业板</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+1.43%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">收3545.58,看着是修复,拆开是</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">下跌中继</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。8月19日那根大阴线,上证</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-2.40%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、创业板</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-6.26%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,之后两个交易日创业板只回了约2.1%。跌6.26%的坑,回2.1%,连5日均线都收不回去。资金没有进场做多,是躲进黄金、白银、有色这些硬资产里避险。</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">这不叫反转。</span></span></strong></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(26, 26, 46);border-radius: 4px;padding: 8px 14px;margin: 26px 0px 14px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;border-left: 3px solid rgb(192, 57, 43);padding: 2px 0px 2px 12px;margin: 0px 0px 14px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(192, 57, 43);"><span leaf="">枢纽判断</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">贵金属和有色是今天唯一的支柱,也是唯一真实的承接。白银</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+8.68%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、贵金属</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+5.99%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、黄金</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+5.09%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、铜</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.21%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、钨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+4.90%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,资金净流入从10亿到34亿不等,白银净流入率</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">16.07%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">全场最高。这个枢纽一旦断裂,大盘就失去唯一支柱,避险资金无处可去,普涨会立刻翻成普跌。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;border-left: 3px solid rgb(41, 128, 185);padding: 2px 0px 2px 12px;margin: 0px 0px 14px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(41, 128, 185);"><span leaf="">轮动判断</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">钱在"硬资产+泛AI"里抱团,同时从内需消费里撤离。黄金概念净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">67.84亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、华为概念</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">79.57亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、电池技术</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">71.58亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、国产芯片</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">53.41亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,全是净流入;生猪养殖</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-1.92%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、其他农产品加工</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-3.19%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、疫苗板块</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-2.6%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,全是净流出。这不是风格切换,是存量博弈里没有增量蛋糕,只抢别人碗里的肉。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;border-left: 3px solid rgb(142, 68, 173);padding: 2px 0px 2px 12px;margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(142, 68, 173);"><span leaf="">未被定价的信号</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">全球物理层在相变,A股只接了贵金属一半。这些物理约束里,贵金属定价了,能源和粮食在A股还没进价:</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span style="color: rgb(142, 68, 173);"><span leaf="">●</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;柴油裂解价差史上首次</span><strong><span leaf="">破百美元</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span style="color: rgb(142, 68, 173);"><span leaf="">●</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;黄金</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+4%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">冲到</span><strong><span leaf="">4510美元</span></strong><span leaf="">,铜破</span><strong><span leaf="">14000美元</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span style="color: rgb(142, 68, 173);"><span leaf="">●</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;美伊冲突让原油每天去库</span><strong><span leaf="">300万桶</span></strong><span leaf="">,OECD库存逼近</span><strong><span leaf="">70天红线</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span style="color: rgb(142, 68, 173);"><span leaf="">●</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;黑海7月港口遭袭超</span><strong><span leaf="">120起</span></strong><span leaf="">,乌克兰8月谷物出货只剩潜力的</span><strong><span leaf="">20%</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span style="color: rgb(142, 68, 173);"><span leaf="">●</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;芝加哥小麦飙到</span><strong><span leaf="">两年高位</span></strong></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(26, 26, 46);border-radius: 4px;padding: 8px 14px;margin: 26px 0px 14px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p></section><p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 18px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.6;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">01 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">康希诺的20cm涨停,是换手出货不是反转</span></span></strong></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">康X诺当天</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+20.01%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,量比</span><strong><span leaf="">10.11</span></strong><span leaf="">,换手率</span><strong><span leaf="">22.38%</span></strong><span leaf="">,成交额</span><strong><span leaf="">18.91亿</span></strong><span leaf="">。但主力净流入只有</span><strong><span leaf="">2736万</span></strong><span leaf="">,主力流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">12.48亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,板块背景是疫苗行业整体</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-2.6%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、体外诊断</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-2.02%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这是标准的涨停板换手出货——一群人看到20cm涨停就冲进去,用流动性接了主力的头寸。</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">判断真假反转,别看涨幅,看谁在买谁在卖。</span></span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 18px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.6;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">02 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">AI算力是真业绩,科技巨头是假金融工程</span></span></strong></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">中X旭创中报净利</span><strong><span leaf="">136.51亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+241.70%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,营收</span><strong><span leaf="">417.78亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+182.49%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">;东X精密净利</span><strong><span leaf="">29.57亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+290.09%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">;长X光纤净利</span><strong><span leaf="">29.25亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+888.88%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,靠的是保偏光纤"卡脖子"需求爆发,是真物理壁垒。另一边,阿里单季压</span><strong><span leaf="">677亿</span></strong><span leaf="">资本开支、暂停回购、净利</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">跌75%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">;博通拟筹</span><strong><span leaf="">1000亿美元</span></strong><span leaf="">表外债务、CDS破纪录;三星拟返还</span><strong><span leaf="">790亿美元</span></strong><span leaf="">安抚股东。</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">真业绩和假金融工程同时存在,临界点就是博通的CDS涨得比AI收入还快。</span></span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 18px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.6;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">03 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">中际旭创是单一失效点,当天流入是承接不是共识</span></span></strong></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">中X旭创今天净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">36.79亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">全场第一,但20日还</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-9.89%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,负债率升到</span><strong><span leaf="">36.08%</span></strong><span leaf="">,经营现金流在降,5日维度主力是净流出的——当天的流入是超跌承接,不是中期建仓。它今天的估值,押的是"北美云厂商资本开支永续"这一个假设。一旦北美云厂资本开支减速,估值会从"AI星辰大海"直接坍缩成"周期制造业"。</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">这是全市场最脆弱的单一失效点。</span></span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 18px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.6;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">04 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">对冲基金在去杠杆,这是比AI财报更硬的风险信号</span></span></strong></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利"纯动量"指数五年首次单日</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">跌超4%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,7月AI巨亏之后的余震。这和博通CDS破纪录、阿里暂停回购是同一条链:全球金融层的杠杆在拆。当对冲基金进入负反馈去杠杆,流动性就是那根针。</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">A股今天看着热闹,但这根针如果刺下来,抱团的泛AI是第一个被抽血的。</span></span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 18px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.6;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">05 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">紫金矿业盘后公告,是今天最大的预期差</span></span></strong></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">紫X矿业中报净利</span><strong><span leaf="">391.7亿</span></strong><span leaf="">、</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+68.17%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,盘后19:23才公告,今天只涨了</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+2.69%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、净流入</span><strong><span leaf="">9.05亿</span></strong><span leaf="">,没进涨幅榜。</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">硬资产+真业绩+全球通胀,三重叠加,价格里还没把这个业绩定进去。</span></span></strong><span leaf="">当粮食和能源危机持续发酵,矿企的物理现金流才是2026年的安全边际。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 18px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.6;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">06 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">全球粮价传导断裂,是下一次估值修复的引信</span></span></strong></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">芝加哥小麦两年高位、黑海谷物出口瘫痪,A股农产品加工却</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-3.19%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这不是A股聪明,是A股的内需定价逻辑还没意识到全球粮价的传导有时滞。等这个时滞被填平,会出现一次剧烈的估值修复。</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">问题只是时间,不是方向。</span></span></strong></p><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(250, 248, 243);border-radius: 6px;padding: 12px 14px;margin: 0px 0px 14px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><span leaf="">情绪指标:涨停</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">54只</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、炸板率</span><strong><span leaf="">25%</span></strong><span leaf="">、连板率</span><strong><span leaf="">14.8%</span></strong><span leaf="">,情绪在启动向发酵过渡,分水岭是涨停数能不能从54突破到60以上——上不去,就是反弹结束的信号。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(26, 26, 46);border-radius: 4px;padding: 8px 14px;margin: 26px 0px 14px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">下周一需要验证的</span></p></section><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">1 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">上证能不能放量站稳3900</span></span></strong><span leaf="">——放量站稳则修复成立,继续缩量则下跌中继坐实。</span></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">2 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">贵金属和有色资金是延续还是退潮</span></span></strong><span leaf="">——净流入延续则硬资产抱团成立,大幅流出则支柱断裂。</span></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">3 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">康X诺次日走势</span></span></strong><span leaf="">——高开低走则换手出货坐实,继续放量冲高则需要重新评估。</span></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">4 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">紫X矿业次日是否补涨</span></span></strong><span leaf="">——盘后公告的391.7亿业绩,周一高开补涨则预期差兑现,低开则说明业绩已被提前定价。</span></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">5 &nbsp;</span></span><span style="color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">北向资金是主动配置还是被动调仓</span></span></strong><span leaf="">——26.8亿净流入连续5日为正,但较昨日28.6亿已略降,需要拆开看主动和被动。</span></p><p style="font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 24px 0px 12px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 46);"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正:</span></p><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(254, 245, 240);border-left: 4px solid rgb(212, 53, 28);border-radius: 0px 6px 6px 0px;padding: 12px 14px;margin: 0px 0px 12px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">▲ 正面 — 下跌中继判断证伪</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">下周一上证放量站稳3900、创业板突破8月19日阴线高点、贵金属有色继续净流入、涨停数上60——那今天是恐慌后的真实修复,"下跌中继"判断证伪,硬资产和有色方向可以低吸,康X诺只做回踩承接不追涨停。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;Noto Sans SC&quot;;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(240, 250, 244);border-left: 4px solid rgb(0, 160, 80);border-radius: 0px 6px 6px 0px;padding: 12px 14px;margin: 0px 0px 12px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">▼ 反面 — 下跌中继坐实</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><span leaf="">继续缩量、贵金属有色资金大幅流出、涨停数上不了60、康X诺高开低走——那下跌中继坐实,按KNN镜像走二次回踩,上证先看</span><strong><span leaf="">3879.58</span></strong><span leaf="">低点,跌破再往下找</span><strong><span leaf="">3800</span></strong><span leaf="">甚至</span><strong><span leaf="">3741</span></strong><span leaf="">。反弹是高位股的减仓点,只留硬资产防守。</span></p></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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