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8月24日AI复盘

发布于 2026-08-24

<section style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(247, 243, 237);border-left: 4px solid rgb(168, 50, 45);padding: 14px 16px;margin-top: 22px;border-radius: 4px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><p style="font-size: 15px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(168, 50, 45);margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">全文仅作AI复盘分享, 不构成投资建议</span></p><p style="font-size: 15px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(168, 50, 45);margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">上证&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-0.59%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;相对抗跌,深证&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-2.13%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、创业板&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-3.21%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;放量下杀,另一边煤炭、工业金属、贵金属逆势霸榜。表面是"科技回调、防御补涨",实质是财富在转移——从靠"未来现金流贴现"定价的资产,向"实物+现金+政策免疫"的资产搬家。9 月加息预期把贴现率这个定价锚往上抬,成长股被杀的不是业绩,是估值中枢。真正受益的,是卡住物理供给的那批资产。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050358" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gyciaT1qZkVE019Vpgu7lanYH5MaURfKAH2MGyh0a3YS1UDP1SkyAHuJm9XVcUwKYxK3BoX335sRwcgibsbTPRiatD3Dwjn7moDEY/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(43, 43, 43);padding: 9px 14px;margin: 30px 0px 4px;border-radius: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 22px 0px 6px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);padding-left: 10px;"><span leaf="">枢纽判断:煤炭+有色/贵金属是当下唯一的主线</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">工业金属净流入&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">10.02 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、煤炭&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">8.53 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、贵金属&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5.38 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、钼&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4.68 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、白银&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">3.95 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,加上银行&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">2.87 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">护盘,全市场唯一逆势为正的资金就集中在这条线上。断裂后果很直接:如果明天资源链补跌,市场没有第二根支柱,只剩空仓这一个选项。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 22px 0px 6px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);padding-left: 10px;"><span leaf="">轮动判断:资金从成长股往实物锚搬家,不是正常轮动</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">算力硬件、PCB、CPO、服务器跌幅居前,机器人板块净流出&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">17.07 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、净额率&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-12.78%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这不是"高低切换"的良性轮动,是成长股资金在往实物资产上逃。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 22px 0px 6px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);padding-left: 10px;"><span leaf="">外资判断:北向四日净流入从 307.6 亿萎缩到 268.1 亿</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">连续萎缩说明外资边际退潮。但这个数是总量,没拆主动配置和被动调仓,是真撤还是指数再平衡,需要明天验证。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 22px 0px 6px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);padding-left: 10px;"><span leaf="">未被定价的信号:7600 亿美元待结汇</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">人民币定价逻辑从利差切到贸易顺差。升值预期的自我实现会强迫天量结汇,推升境内资产定价锚。这条流动性底层变量今天没有人讨论,但它利好低估值、高股息、人民币计价资产。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(43, 43, 43);padding: 9px 14px;margin: 30px 0px 4px;border-radius: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 20px 0px 4px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);font-size: 18px;"><span leaf="">01</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">能源是加息周期里唯一正回报的板块</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">巴克莱的历史统计摆在那:加息启动后,能源股是唯一正回报板块。这不是观点,是统计事实,再叠加波斯湾"零石油出口"的物理威胁。煤炭今天逆势爆发,是"加息免疫"的起点,不是避险的终点。这条线今天被系统性低估了。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 20px 0px 4px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);font-size: 18px;"><span leaf="">02</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">半导体设备吃肉,存储厂股东挨打</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">高盛上调晶圆厂设备支出到 2028 年,HBM 价格已涨&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7 倍</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,但三星照样跌&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">8.7%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。钱最终流向卖设备的人,不是持有存储厂股票的人。A 股半导体设备链今天被情绪错杀——它背后是物理资本开支,不是估值想象,是唯一能穿越贴现率上行的科技逻辑。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 20px 0px 4px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);font-size: 18px;"><span leaf="">03</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">阿里跌 9%,是"债市太贵"的警报,不是利空出尽</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">野村说稀释不足 4%、维持买入,这是标准的卖方安抚话术。真正致命的信号藏在后面:阿里作为现金流机器,居然从债市融资转向股权摊薄。这说明信用环境已经贵到连阿里都不愿发债。把它当利空出尽去抄底,就漏掉了"债市太贵"四个字的系统性含义。分歧点只有一个——8 月 CPI 能不能证伪 9 月加息。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050356" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gzK7swyfvxrDuSX7ia9xwqBe8KsgRSD4WsT751ibLlecwC3L3IhTKCKDIatw9yPyw63M5Wial7BuuZ2sCsFlWSZdic6tp9aptJneiag/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 20px 0px 4px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);font-size: 18px;"><span leaf="">04</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">小盘垃圾股涨停,是游资出货,不是情绪回暖</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">今天涨幅榜前 20,14 只市值不足 50 亿,7 只亏损或市盈率超 100 倍。天X生物 5 日主力净流出&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">10.06 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,照样涨停;盈X发展 5 日净流出&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">34.72 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,也涨停;天X锂能净流出&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">12.57 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,还涨&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">20%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。主力持续净流出、股价却涨停,这是标准的出货结构,追进去的人就是最后一棒。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 20px 0px 4px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);font-size: 18px;"><span leaf="">05</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">机器人没有真实需求,崩得最快</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">宇树 IPO 首日暴涨&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">629%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,四日蒸发&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">1900 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,73% 收入靠科研采购。这是估值,不是利润。机器人板块净流出&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">17.07 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,净额率&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-12.78%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。没有量产需求支撑的估值,涨得越急、崩得越快。谁拿"机器人革命"给高估值辩护,就是用科幻逻辑给财务数据找理由。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050357" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwfxLyCb2snI7tNgCDSd10iamJyQhdzDo49hn5KLYFmVnaNytFlpAv1iax6EXicegwgJZic4WD4br8oicCETww6llyXVAaRx7mmVzp4/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 20px 0px 4px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);font-size: 18px;"><span leaf="">06</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">人民币结汇潮,是今天没被定价的流动性</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">7600 亿美元待结汇</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,定价逻辑从利差切到贸易顺差。升值预期会自我实现,强迫天量结汇,推升境内资产。这条链利好低估值、高股息、人民币计价资产。市场今天给的反应是零。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(43, 43, 43);padding: 9px 14px;margin: 30px 0px 4px;border-radius: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 4px;"><strong style="color: rgb(168, 50, 45);"><span leaf="">1. 资源主线会不会补跌</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span leaf="">明天煤炭、有色、贵金属若跟随指数下杀,主线断裂,停止一切买入,转空仓。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 4px;"><strong style="color: rgb(168, 50, 45);"><span leaf="">2. 北向是真撤还是调仓</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span leaf="">观察北向是否继续萎缩,配合超大单和大单方向判断资金真实意图。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 4px;"><strong style="color: rgb(168, 50, 45);"><span leaf="">3. 8 月 CPI</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span leaf="">能不能证伪 9 月加息预期,这决定成长股有没有反弹赔率。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 4px;"><strong style="color: rgb(168, 50, 45);"><span leaf="">4. 阿里和港股互联网能否止跌</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span leaf="">若继续下探,说明"债市太贵"是系统性问题,不是孤立事件。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 4px;"><strong style="color: rgb(168, 50, 45);"><span leaf="">5. 小盘垃圾股是否退潮</span></strong></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span leaf="">天X生物、盈X发展这类票明天打开涨停且主力继续流出,出货结构就坐实了。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(43, 43, 43);padding: 9px 14px;margin: 30px 0px 4px;border-radius: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><section style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(241, 247, 242);border-left: 4px solid rgb(0, 160, 80);padding: 12px 16px;margin-top: 16px;border-radius: 4px;"><p style="font-size: 15px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(0, 160, 80);margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span leaf="">正面——沿资源链加仓</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">明天资源主线继续放量走强、成长股缩量企稳,"实物锚接管定价"成立,可沿资源链加仓。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(251, 241, 240);border-left: 4px solid rgb(168, 50, 45);padding: 12px 16px;margin-top: 14px;border-radius: 4px;"><p style="font-size: 15px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(168, 50, 45);margin: 0px 0px 6px;"><span leaf="">反面——全面降到空仓</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">明天资源补跌、北向加速流出、成长股继续放量杀,那这不是转移,是普跌,判断错误,全面降到空仓。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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