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8月26日AI复盘

发布于 2026-08-26

<p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享,不构成投资建议。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">今天满屏都是AI利好,硬件链却在集体净流出。市场没有错。是聪明钱在英伟达财报落地前,把手里的筹码清掉。指数红盘是散户接盘,不是新钱入场。真正的主线在切换——从AI融资叙事,切向实物资源与信用对冲。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(138, 109, 59);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">枢纽判断</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">英伟达今晚的财报,是整个盘面的单一失效点。CPO、MLCC、AI手机、传感器、机器视觉、网络安全,七个科技题材今天合计净流出约</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">46亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,全是提前派发。断裂后果很清楚:财报不及预期,CPO、光模块、PCB、液冷一个月内回撤</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">25%-35%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,个别没有营收支撑的高估值壳股,跌</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">80%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">不算过分。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050395" data-ratio="0.685131195335277" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gwq5v2h6ibOaM05QrfwXYJnDm7nBraDADhdkLlAicibjq1DvyIox6UR0LN6j9LWYcfMXPsyZiafLeuusIbIXcfic8D2XzFlCIAgnrqg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1029" type="block"></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(138, 109, 59);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">轮动判断</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">火源是有色铜钼。钼净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.41亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,锂</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.48亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,白X有色、江X铜业涨停。钱在往两个方向走:券商期货,净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.54亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">;核电电力,可控核聚变</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.33亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,雅下水电</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.36亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。科技硬件链反向流出。这是真轮动,不是假承接——钱正从"赌财报"的资产,切向"不赌财报"的资产。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050397" data-ratio="0.4916911045943304" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gxZy0ibH0RYKykBLa8OWGtDAHNMWfZTXsozibAHpniakf4eQR3clZuxX1Qb6Pfzqs3qrn0xJfc1FQeAm9Cf26kkiaOV4tpTcq8onNA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1023" type="block"></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(138, 109, 59);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">未被定价的信号</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">白银先于黄金启动。白X有色涨停,主力净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5.4亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。贵金属的定价权,还没从"涨价"切到"信用对冲",市场大多数人没反应过来这层。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">一</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、指数收复是反弹,不是反转</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">上证指数收</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">3912.52</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">0.59%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,收复3900点。但两市成交</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.81万亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,量能比前日还缩了</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">200亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。深成指收</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">13841.33</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,距8月19日暴跌前的高点14622,还差</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">5.3%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。那根</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-5.01%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">的大阴线,单日蒸发732点。五个交易日,只回补了一半。今天这根收复,是幸存者回血。不是新钱入场。<img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050392" data-ratio="0.47863247863247865" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gxIE8uXyDzLaQOexibicXYQITJkVvmSqevZAh5eFssrC6a9Mcx1UPvPEYgxnv7BrpoLZ2dY9Mw2Yo9NLC1tku8SSSibgnnxo6bBjo/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1053" type="block"></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">二</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、机构在红盘上出货</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">红利股涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">0.52%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,看上去最稳。拆开看:大单净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">7.26亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,散户接了</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">10.74亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。CPO概念里,超大单还买</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.51亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,大单和中单合计跑了</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">3.94亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这是分歧型出货,不是共识型出清。指数那条红线背后,是主力在七个科技题材上,合计搬走约</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">46亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050399" data-ratio="0.5545722713864307" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gy3XmYFoQgvcuhYcUnkPH2bCwhgMZDsHicgnCnMTwRfQv4F2iciax983Kh5x821Yq1UFibWsCCPsmISfR6D2bdfiaFTERl4nEZgggib4/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1017" type="block"></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">三</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、三条国际信号,指向同一个结论</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">Druckenmiller公开炮轰贝森特,说回购美债是价格管理,不是流动性管理。Schnabel说欧元区韧性超预期,进一步收紧是必要的。美伊停火,布油一周跌</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">8%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。三件事合起来,是同一个意思:法币信用锚在松动。美债公信力每受损一分,实物资产的定价逻辑,就从利率对冲切到信用对冲。这是2026年最确定的一次方向切换。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050401" data-ratio="0.2911764705882353" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gzqYs5icOx9gnKUBYZCIGA7pmwrLncZa0KBREClhpGTMggc2DnAnqmrREk3zkTBAIia4slPUQZAjoSyYINhY75thta4uuQcgXfxw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1020" type="block"></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">四</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、DeepSeek的估值,是流动性幻觉</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">DeepSeek前七个月营收</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4.75亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,同比增10倍,API毛利率</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">82.9%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。但净亏损</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">7.15亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。它要的是5000亿估值、500亿融资、明年沪市上市。4.75亿营收对应5000亿估值,市销率超1000倍。摩根大通喊阿里配股反应过度、逢低买入,本质是给港股承销盘托底。你买的每一笔AI受益股,都在给这种估值提供退出流动性。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050403" data-ratio="0.34195402298850575" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gyEN2MLUz5Eh9PyRd7t7OM78LMqHICrmX9rM729aduUcsySiawGELUu6RhKZ6hkxuks8J8icicuibzSTCLT5TuQktS8It0HrxaiahPA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1044" type="block"></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">五</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、MLCC的产业与资金,在背离</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">瑞银报告说,全球MLCC分销商库存比四周前再降</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">8%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,历史新低,产能利用率</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">95%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,库存金额还涨了</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">10%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。产业基本面很硬。但A股MLCC今天净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">6.5亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。资金在用AI手机销量这个错的坐标系,给AI服务器加汽车被动元件这个对的事实定价。产业对,坐标错,这就是背离。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100050405" data-ratio="0.4011627906976744" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gzAicrM2KXjq9Pw7a3lUWo5dMy1hADOclfPTB5dBiaQ7Yb4gLWpSHO3xhmf3dcRgZ1aqIkqxPkygBriboop1n7pCMjgd8obo80iaaM/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1032" type="block"></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">六</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、涨停板在做预期分配</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">C高凯10日涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">388%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,换手</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">49%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,PE</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">162倍</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。康X诺涨停,PE是</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-21022</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。兆X科技涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">16.75%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,但它所在的网络安全板块净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。白X有色涨停,主力净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5.4亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,5日涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">34%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、20日涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">47.76%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。涨停板只做一件事:把散户的钱吸进次新、疫苗、亏损壳,把主力的钱搬进有色、钼、核聚变。看清谁被分到什么资产,就看清下一阶段的清算顺序。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">1.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;英伟达财报落地后,CPO、MLCC是放量收复还是冲高回落——收复说明换手完成,回落说明派发没结束。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">2.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;有色、贵金属是否继续走强——白银先于黄金的信号,能不能被确认。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">3.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;券商、期货在缩量环境下能否放出量来——今天两市缩200亿,券商的赔率靠成交量,缩量下是伪命题。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">4.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;涨停板数据明日恢复后,连板率和炸板率,能不能佐证"启动期"这个判断。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">5.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;红利股是不是继续被散户接盘——主力继续跑、散户继续接,红盘出货就坐实了。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 8px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">正面:</span></span></strong><span leaf="">明天硬件链放量收复失地、资金回流科技,说明今天只是正常换手,判断错误,可以回补科技仓位。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">反面:</span></span></strong><span leaf="">硬件链冲高回落,或者补跌,同时有色、核电、贵金属继续走强,判断成立,继续撤离一切"赌财报"的仓位,加配实物资源与信用对冲资产。</span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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