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8月27日AI复盘

发布于 2026-08-27

<p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享,不构成投资建议</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">今天的反攻是真的,但买单的不是追高的散户,是搬家的机构。钱从权重、创新药、零售里撤出来,灌进半导体、PCB、光通信三条线。真正危险的不是科技主线本身,是换手率超过</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">30%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">的那批20cm涨停,那是击鼓传花的最后一排。</span><span leaf="">只跟机构主线的回踩,不接散户的盘。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(138, 109, 59);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">枢纽判断</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">这轮行情的总开关是英伟达。它一张季报把A股科技链点燃,但点火用的不是新增订单,是它</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5300亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">的表外承诺。一旦某个云厂商砍单,这条链最脆弱的一环先断,今天追进去的20cm第一个被埋。半导体是第二枢纽,一头连存储和数字芯片,一头连PCB和覆铜板,是这轮资金最集中的地方。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(138, 109, 59);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">轮动判断</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">钱从权重和医药往科技搬,是真搬家,不是假承接。创新药涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.21%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">但净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">2.01亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,权重涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">0.53%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">但超大单在出逃,零售概念净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">2.13亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这些钱没消失,流进了电子、半导体、PCB、通信。电子一家净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">389.6亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,半导体</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">173.7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。指数是存量腾挪推上去的,不是增量买上去的。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(138, 109, 59);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">未被定价的信号</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">农业和种植今天被全网无视。其他种植业涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">6.74%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、农用机械涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5.19%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,净流入却只有</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.44亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">和</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.29亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。没人讨论它,恰恰是它没被定价的证据。美伊战争打了6个月、航运成本高企,这条物理轴A股几乎没人在看。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">一</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、英伟达的5300亿承诺,是杠杆不是信仰</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">英伟达营收</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">962亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">同比翻倍,下季指引首破千亿,高盛把目标价调到</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">300美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这些是明牌。暗牌是</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5300亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">表外承诺,等于它5年半的全额营收,外加</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">360亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">现金流缺口。这不是严格意义的旁氏,但它是拿自己的资产负债表给客户的AI投入做担保。一旦云厂商砍单,循环会从一个点开始断。市场今天只看到"超预期",没看到杠杆。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">二</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、资金是存量的,指数是搬家搬上去的</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">表面三大指数普涨,上证</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+1.13%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">收复3900,创业板</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+1.71%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">最强。拆开看,是存量资金从权重、创新药、零售撤出,灌进AI硬件。超大单在权重上净卖</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">20.3亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,小单净买</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">27.8亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,散户在接机构的筹码。成交</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.01万亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,没明显放量。这是结构性搬家,不是牛市反攻。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">三</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、机构主线三分天下,优级股就三只</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">半导体、PCB/覆铜板、光纤光缆占了今天主力净流入的大头。电子</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.97%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">389.6亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,半导体</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+5.04%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">173.7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,PCB</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+5.72%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">105.5亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,通信线缆</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+5.47%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">49.1亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。机构共振最强的是三只:生X科技涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">8.43%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">主力净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">26.1亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,中X科技涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7.99%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">16.7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,澜X科技涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">10.06%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">量比</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">2.49</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">15.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。它们是发酵期里能回踩低吸的,不是涨得最凶的。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">四</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、换手率超30%的20cm,是接盘席不是机会</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">20cm涨停榜上最凶的几只,赛X电子</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+20.01%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">量比</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5.54</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,联X新材、大X微也封板。但看换手率:肯X股份36.73%、英X科技31.77%、兆X科技31.58%。换手超30%的涨停,是筹码一天里换了一轮手。更要命的是,赛X电子60日还跌</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">19.07%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,这种票不是趋势,是情绪脉冲。今天20cm里至少一半年内会跌回起涨点,这个需要明天验证。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">五</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、阳X电源的错杀,别急着明天抄刀</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">特朗普签令禁止部分外国电力设备,阳X电源跌超</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">12%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,市值缩到</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">2039亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,主力净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">10.6亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,公司回应"还在研究"。但美国收入不是它的核心基本盘,国内电网投资加上中东、一带一路才是。这波是恐慌定价,不是基本面崩了。可修复需要时间,路径大概率是跌停、错杀反弹、再阴跌。半年报的非美收入占比出来前,市场给的"低吸机会"都是催命符。同一时间大摩15:46喊"A股反攻窗口、港股退居二线",这是它已经建好底仓、喊你来接的信号,不是看多。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">六</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、被无视的方向,才是赔率所在</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">其他种植业和农用机械今天涨得不错却没资金讨论,粮食供给收缩的逻辑(IMF降速、地缘冲突、极端天气)正在兑现却没人定价。油运、干散货同理,霍尔木兹受阻、航运成本高企,这条线A股系统性忽略了。IMF把全球增速下调到3.0%,大摩喊反攻,两条消息之间的裂缝就是安全边际。不用买已经翻倍的油运股,要看定价者还没注意到的上游。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">1.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;半导体、PCB、通信明天主力净流入是否延续,转负就是机构主线证伪,今天是诱多。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">2.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;换手超30%的那批20cm明天是否开板炸板,炸板率飙升说明情绪见顶。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">3.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;阳X电源是错杀修复反弹还是继续阴跌,反弹是错杀确认,阴跌是趋势已破。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">4.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;生X科技、中X科技、澜X科技能否守住今天实体半分位,破位说明发酵期结束。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">5.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;涨停连板率、炸板率的精确数据能否恢复,数据回来情绪阶段才能定死。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 8px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">正面:</span></span></strong><span leaf="">明天成交明显放量、增量资金进场,20cm高换手股继续封板且机构回补,说明这是增量牛市不是存量搬家,判断错误,可以加仓跟随科技主线。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">反面:</span></span></strong><span leaf="">主力净流入延续但成交不放量,20cm炸板率飙升,优级股守住半分位,判断成立。维持40%仓,只跟半导体、PCB、光通信的优级股回踩低吸,个股5%硬止损,持有7天,继续回避换手超30%的20cm,视线同时留一档给农业、油运、电力设备错杀。</span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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