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8月28日AI复盘

发布于 2026-08-28

<p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享,不够成投资建议</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">今天不是AI行情歇脚,是科技内部的分化日。泛半导体——碳化硅、氮化镓、LED、海思——被资金系统性出货,但光通信和ICT却逆势吃进主力净流入。钱没离开市场,是从概念型科技搬进了两个方向:一是有业绩的光通信硬件,二是物理层的涨价链。约3000股飘红、指数收跌、成交缩量,这是存量腾挪,不是增量进场。仓位保持</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">3成</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,只跟光通信和涨价链的回踩,回避泛半导体和医药。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(138, 109, 59);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">枢纽判断</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">这轮的总开关是英伟达。它8月27日单日涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">8.7%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、市值增</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4400亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,把A股算力点燃,但点火用的不是新增订单,是套现预期。半导体是第二枢纽,今天内部已经劈叉:碳化硅净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">20.36亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、氮化镓</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">19.71亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、LED</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">20.54亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,光通信却在吃进。断裂点不在半导体整体,在泛半导体的概念端。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(138, 109, 59);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">轮动判断</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">钱从泛半导体、创新药、固态电池撤出,搬进农化、无机盐、白酒、纺织化学。净流出前十全是科技成长,单日合计失血近</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">200亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">;净流入前十全是涨价链。这是生态位迁移,不是普通轮动。小金属概念涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">0.52%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">却净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">19.46亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,指数还红着,钱已经在跑。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(138, 109, 59);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">未被定价的信号</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">霍尔木兹。卡塔尔首相访伊讨论海峡、伊朗军方放话备好对美条件清单,全球能源咽喉在重新定价。这条物理轴,A股除了化工农业在动,几乎没人把它当主线。美伊僵局、航运成本、粮食供给收缩,这三条线今天只有涨价链给了反应。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">一</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、科技是分化,不是整体坍塌</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">泛半导体全线失血:LED净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">20.54亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、碳化硅</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">20.36亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、氮化镓</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">19.71亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、华为海思</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">19.62亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、边缘计算</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">20.42亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、固态电池</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">20.26亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。但光通信和ICT没跟着死:星X锐捷涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">10.01%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、主力净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7.58亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">全市场居首,德X立涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">10.41%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5.92亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。同样是科技,一边被弃、一边被抱,差别在有没有业绩。第三代半导体和LED是概念,光模块和ICT是英伟达链直接受益。别把"科技跌了"当成"科技完了",要拆开看谁在跌、谁在接。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">二</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、涨价链是防御仓,不是进攻线</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">农化制品涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">2.73%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.65亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,无机盐涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">2.41%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.62亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,白酒涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.24%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.49亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,纺织化学涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">3.94%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.47亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这些钱不是来炒题材的,是来躲的。霍尔木兹、委内瑞拉考虑退出OPEC、贝森特放风美元制裁,三条地缘线同时压向实物资产。化工涨停潮——华X股份、泸X化、赤X化、雪X盐业、先X股份——是资金对"物理层安全边际"的集体投票。黄金避险是这条防御线的另一个出口,湖X黄金涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7.03%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、量比</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5.55</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、主力净流入</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4.88亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,指数承压时是反向对冲。这是防御,不是主升浪,别追高,回踩才接。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">三</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、光通信是硬件最后的抱团地</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">星X锐捷、德X立、深X华强是今天科技里少数能吃的方向。星X锐捷主力净流入全市场第一,德X立20日动量</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">52.4%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,深X华强量比</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4.85</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。但注意,深X华强是海思概念,而海思板块今天整体净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">19.62亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">——板块在出,只有龙头在独享流动性,这种"独苗"结构要控制仓位,不能因为一只票强就认为整个板块活了。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">四</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、医药在"机构出货、散户接盘"</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">创新药净流出</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">20.48亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、医药医疗</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">19.02亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,同时药X康德通过大宗交易套现药明合联股份约</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">39亿港元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。主力在龙头CRO里出逃,散户在沃X医药、精X制药这类低价小票里自嗨。涨幅榜躺着涨停的,全是低市值、低预期的仿制药边缘票。这种结构不是轮动,是主赛道内的能量从核心向边缘逆转,散户接的每一手都是机构撤退时的流动性。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">五</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、北交所是流动性陷阱的标本</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">N华大上市首日涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">126.81%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、换手97.03%,一天内筹码全部易手,没有一个人想做股东。花X科技市盈率1069倍还涨</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">29.97%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。一个成交</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">2.12万亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、缩量</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">200亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">的市场,去爆炒</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">流通盘的新股,这是存量资金无处可去、只能在最小市值的垃圾筹码里制造波动互相收割。这些票的护城河就是流动性本身,而流动性是最先蒸发的。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 18px 0px 8px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">六</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、北向连续净流入,但这个数字要拆开看</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">8月27日北向合计</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">284908.73百万</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,连续5个交易日净流入。但总量数字不能直接用——是主动配置还是被动指数调仓,今天的数据没区分。外资做多意愿是否存在,需要明天拆开主动盘和被动盘再定。别被"连续净流入"五个字带着走。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">1.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;光通信和ICT(星X锐捷、德X立)明天主力净流入是否延续,转负说明硬件最后的抱团地也散了,今天是诱多。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">2.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;涨价链(农化、无机盐、纺织化学)净流入是否放大,放大说明生态位迁移确认,可以继续低吸。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">3.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;泛半导体(碳化硅、氮化镓、LED)净流出是否收敛,收敛说明是超跌反弹不是出货,判断要修正。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">4.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;北向净流入能否拆开主动盘和被动盘,主动盘为正才算外资真做多。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">5.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;上证能否守住3900一线,跌破则8月20日低点失守,修复行情结束,仓位降到2成以下。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);margin: 28px 0px 12px;padding-left: 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(197, 160, 89);"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 8px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">正面:</span></span></strong><span leaf="">明天泛半导体(碳化硅、氮化镓、LED)净流出明显收敛甚至转正,光通信和涨价链的净流入延续,说明今天只是科技内部的一次快速换手,不是生态位迁移,判断错误,可以重新加仓科技主线。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">反面:</span></span></strong><span leaf="">泛半导体继续失血、光通信转负、涨价链独强,说明分化坐实。维持3成仓,只跟光通信(星X锐捷、德X立)和涨价链(农化、无机盐)的回踩低吸,单票5%硬止损、持有7天,继续回避泛半导体、创新药、固态电池,北向主动盘数据出来前不给外资逻辑加权重。</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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