官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

9月3日AI复盘

发布于 2026-09-03

<section data-page-node-id="PJtUi9EMDd5SrnKnVsVKjb" data-dm-ref="6" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(251, 247, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);border-radius: 4px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><p data-page-node-id="x52HNwMqbBXOrcqBqMG1c4" data-dm-ref="7" style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享,不构成投资建议</span></p><p data-page-node-id="x52HNwMqbBXOrcqBqMG1c4" data-dm-ref="7" style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></p><p data-page-node-id="clu6NxRI5vaMn6X3sSfRKR" data-dm-ref="8" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">三大股指微涨、</span><strong data-page-node-id="1BMhVDvbLABH7ti1OR4CtT" data-dm-ref="9"><span data-page-node-id="89YsgEYjHGQ3JKip2eFiPp" data-dm-ref="10" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">超3500股飘绿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、成交&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="x6RDPKRDrpmFIxAEZpqlG9" data-dm-ref="11"><span data-page-node-id="S61McrVJyV2A44IeyjFYA0" data-dm-ref="12" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">1.78万亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;连续两日低于2万亿,是缩量护盘下的普跌。一周内加息概率从&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="NqJKeO17sUuzDKUxDlfPq8" data-dm-ref="13"><span data-page-node-id="bmr78GLmgK556Cf3RIYdRL" data-dm-ref="14" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">37%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;蹿到&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="zBctjggtqI8e6cUjFtilQs" data-dm-ref="15"><span data-page-node-id="NB9D0QN2iM4Ttt8BT7J4h8" data-dm-ref="16" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">67%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,这条曲线比任何芯片指引都真实。资金用脚投票:中芯概念净流出&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="SidpX94e4Cru2IXhqrNncQ" data-dm-ref="17"><span data-page-node-id="78NpM9ixJyXpnud4e14WHM" data-dm-ref="18" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">26.62亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、AI应用净流出&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="ymvS1OCFII8CxoUsWmczVy" data-dm-ref="19"><span data-page-node-id="MFAPyOoPE4pP7Cupk4bFzY" data-dm-ref="20" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">23.12亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,黄金概念净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="I45WFDSXV7CCJ7Bmipl5up" data-dm-ref="21"><span data-page-node-id="mED2YEBMiN5H0lYrWEX2vD" data-dm-ref="22" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">15.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、培育钻石净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="efJjCy5BMvoaK7zsPLAsZh" data-dm-ref="23"><span data-page-node-id="tyTTH0dGrNlcCjv6MjCX6D" data-dm-ref="24" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">18.25亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这不是进攻,是避险。</span></p></section><p data-page-node-id="SXDWqqwghKvSwllvCKFLqa" data-dm-ref="25" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p><p data-page-node-id="ZxTRAiIGOoAj84UQpGvLhY" data-dm-ref="26" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">枢纽判断:培育钻石是今日最强主线,但本质是游资的防御性攻击</span></p><p data-page-node-id="uMUy5lGZ37ZVOQ8ilucZMw" data-dm-ref="27" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">培育钻石涨&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="u7cbgDEFYGwhVByAM0yThX" data-dm-ref="28"><span data-page-node-id="RGayZyVNbN3xSf2WATFpiE" data-dm-ref="29" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4.51%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Qy30jr80AIeINFfPX09Oua" data-dm-ref="30"><span data-page-node-id="0YDS8cAL4z9R3dEJo4Hv79" data-dm-ref="31" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">18.25亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、净流入率&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="LvV59XkZUwsmLWTjWTOdMN" data-dm-ref="32"><span data-page-node-id="e0fBOtWTLse4j4e7zyBlpj" data-dm-ref="33" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">9.44%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,全市场第一。但它不是产业逻辑,是游资对「实物+稀缺」标签的抢筹。断裂后果:一旦加息落地、流动性收缩,这类纯概念的高位筹码是第一批被清算的,今日涨停的思X新材(</span><strong data-page-node-id="2RWjejRFghDEiKHLu6dGCt" data-dm-ref="34"><span data-page-node-id="zAov0GDzLgkDe99lIWtssw" data-dm-ref="35" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+20%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)这类20cm小票和北交所新股N金钛(</span><strong data-page-node-id="PX8qckcCtfGBpyBAq5X0YU" data-dm-ref="36"><span data-page-node-id="sJWvlzfiZpMi1hTz96iA79" data-dm-ref="37" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+149%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)首当其冲。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="Hu32X0XEE3FPK8hAxyXDYi" data-dm-ref="38" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">轮动判断:资金从 AI/制造向实物/金融迁移,是避险轮动不是扩散</span></p><p data-page-node-id="MruF1LQYRcPi4bwM2YE2bf" data-dm-ref="39" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">净流出榜:中芯概念&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="OOVFRCSqcNDglJkiNKfZIp" data-dm-ref="40"><span data-page-node-id="edBukmBoZFKaKHAzLkQsnY" data-dm-ref="41" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-26.62亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、新能源车&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="cgI0sPM6wPXZ1GK12CGn6N" data-dm-ref="42"><span data-page-node-id="fxG1vpLw0fyI9h3JaRQHwa" data-dm-ref="43" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-24.96亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、电网&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="qfV6S6lCzdnOLvciWAgHdo" data-dm-ref="44"><span data-page-node-id="4bw2TGn4ue84NIJ8TEAST4" data-dm-ref="45" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-24.26亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、区块链&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="DqRGJKQBZvHOZt6hMffEtF" data-dm-ref="46"><span data-page-node-id="FjCq6bkuHKkGBnGOItJOtq" data-dm-ref="47" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-24.18亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、海工装备&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="GAa3Ff86Q1yK6qwrBkXxg3" data-dm-ref="48"><span data-page-node-id="80APyIUKCKlU46KP1ENrn8" data-dm-ref="49" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-23.91亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、AI应用&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="qssh2btpX3tZHZwHpx08iY" data-dm-ref="50"><span data-page-node-id="QcsTSufWmarCJyNuhdrnKZ" data-dm-ref="51" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-23.12亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="ufcWwKCG7p6Cd97HyoZxSS" data-dm-ref="52" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">净流入榜:券商&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="WEOkfHn5rb4LS1C8NVYBsX" data-dm-ref="53"><span data-page-node-id="YhFcDegBgbR1cDbilURw6S" data-dm-ref="54" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+18.75亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、培育钻石&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="OAR1M8M9JqBLTJB0QaJhhD" data-dm-ref="55"><span data-page-node-id="TxzBJMrKYHhpaeCmMYaBrK" data-dm-ref="56" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+18.25亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、小盘股&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="A7AqNFjgmL60JT8DNYJktF" data-dm-ref="57"><span data-page-node-id="tiZSYHbz97AHhgkYqHr1XX" data-dm-ref="58" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+18.37亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、储能&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="t57ED0ubGnIB4SNX6Rjr2W" data-dm-ref="59"><span data-page-node-id="JuxAKFXFudMrAJciHvvZNJ" data-dm-ref="60" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+16.6亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、黄金&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="cP23OGKSE4kDCwRkZwZffW" data-dm-ref="61"><span data-page-node-id="nTkhEgJKhkEqdJ0PrSwYdQ" data-dm-ref="62" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+15.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、小金属&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="vv3AeQPDEPuhVjB1CFDhSM" data-dm-ref="63"><span data-page-node-id="FZSbeGwauwOLyRaN8eZxMz" data-dm-ref="64" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+11.76亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="59w2rI2PrbvC7FYcLKGVHQ" data-dm-ref="65" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">方向清晰:抛科技制造、抬硬资产与金融。这是存量博弈,不是增量扩散。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="uyAGXrdKEAFFoFxmlHA9I7" data-dm-ref="66" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">北向判断:连续5日净流入但边际递减</span></p><p data-page-node-id="OhqWMuFMtDuAyYGoVSABRp" data-dm-ref="67" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">北向从08/31的&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="2I7hq9wXVBFdCzUt2j2acO" data-dm-ref="68"><span data-page-node-id="wiHARhePFzg91G9iDmUErU" data-dm-ref="69" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">32.6亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;峰值回落到09/02的&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="CTKmtyBJawpyY5fCqzOqB9" data-dm-ref="70"><span data-page-node-id="eBnNnDJZ0kEl6SMXWFKi8C" data-dm-ref="71" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">24.48亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,还在流入但动能减弱,与大盘滞涨互证。这5日净流入是下方支撑,但撑不住上攻。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="3gsUJIfWdh7ZM8CHRKiIiQ" data-dm-ref="72" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">未被定价的信号:创业板补缺路径没有溢价</span></p><p data-page-node-id="BX3xN0rHGfYTN6jfjc2RCT" data-dm-ref="73" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">创业板从8/17高点&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="6fTe4C6AoPCxC5Q4g9BUiG" data-dm-ref="74"><span data-page-node-id="MfR86jQlFzEU4gJWMB4OiS" data-dm-ref="75" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3740</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;回落到&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="IGJumMcxl9GZOGSrf9kF8I" data-dm-ref="76"><span data-page-node-id="NTEhpDnBTpWMDIOTz5IyRk" data-dm-ref="77" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3312</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,区间&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="U7xnbgrres31ROOIh9Bmgc" data-dm-ref="78"><span data-page-node-id="LncRraIuPrxBPHDp8EBGln" data-dm-ref="79" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-11.4%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,8/19单日曾暴跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="YNyPlWwnEaA2hk9MgvqkRH" data-dm-ref="80"><span data-page-node-id="TF3xVgjWylmvE2FPFlRAYj" data-dm-ref="81" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-6.26%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。距&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="ZYRoFy0d2kD7GIkGWMnhVg" data-dm-ref="82"><span data-page-node-id="cAlHRMlO1QHJawWOhPo4jF" data-dm-ref="83" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3270-3290</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;缺口、再往&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="6misuxbHGH4GHck3Ys0yks" data-dm-ref="84"><span data-page-node-id="WdKHCtUdWgxfUDSvMUPegF" data-dm-ref="85" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3100</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;的ma120靠拢,这个路径市场几乎没有定价。当前3312点,一旦加息落地叠加非农/CPI超预期,2-3个交易日回补缺口不是小概率。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="c7CflzUTZTh7UG4H6a9rzl" data-dm-ref="86" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p><p data-page-node-id="DWv0jaQX4PVdgWrwxX3vHQ" data-dm-ref="87" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">一、加息概率一周翻倍,是今天最硬的信号</span></p><p data-page-node-id="YuaZPGpUFBtzWeIwe1tBP2" data-dm-ref="88" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">从&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="igWa3gVujraHCeFwR9jv7w" data-dm-ref="89"><span data-page-node-id="A1EpC3QOJ7WBsJVQeNtR4I" data-dm-ref="90" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">37%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;到&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="eZDkwN8J1gV30gxw3HGwh3" data-dm-ref="91"><span data-page-node-id="CqbI7pUmrXNznadDyPhpXh" data-dm-ref="92" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">67%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,只用了7天。AI是最高久期的资产,利率是它的第一杀手。贴现率收紧,任何「长期增长」叙事都在为未来6个月的利率现实让路。博通给的FY28年&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="WN3zbOG1Nkkg7cSwpDxq2m" data-dm-ref="93"><span data-page-node-id="kaof0NZf47jjLnjLsL24xK" data-dm-ref="94" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">2300亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;AI收入指引,被这条加息曲线盖过。卖方集体维持买入,是在顶部喊多,激励结构注定了他们不会在此时转向。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="uD77v5X4CLTvLGCDfbuwcT" data-dm-ref="95" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">二、缩量护盘+普跌分化,指数是化了妆的</span></p><p data-page-node-id="jzckKQu7arq8bvEOqbDHga" data-dm-ref="96" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">上证&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="pHon86W8zEQBC8O4nlCJ4Q" data-dm-ref="97"><span data-page-node-id="ib3pXQuUwPnCk1n5Yp6YfS" data-dm-ref="98" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3942.09</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;只涨&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="SPbtb6l1dzWaYpSGAoRsEo" data-dm-ref="99"><span data-page-node-id="f0JLHJ2mRbDTE9RBw40H52" data-dm-ref="100" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">0.018%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、创业板&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="H7SSpHdv9lGKcHCcSo2A1I" data-dm-ref="101"><span data-page-node-id="C0TE5jcFTmtQHsSGSfwmGO" data-dm-ref="102" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3312.54</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;只涨&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="yyflXps7qL3bORrmYWlJbD" data-dm-ref="103"><span data-page-node-id="4R7H0gWEGI4yuAqDFfDUGz" data-dm-ref="104" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">0.009%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,但&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Z8SKmSmJoQtI7fQAYIqzLb" data-dm-ref="105"><span data-page-node-id="KtNK4KyA1wUAo0ZtZFBkhu" data-dm-ref="106" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">超3500股飘绿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、成交&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Vpt5eq4zSjKFvdF05A4TER" data-dm-ref="107"><span data-page-node-id="5GUXQamsH793JYRp7YXyL5" data-dm-ref="108" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">1.78万亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;连续两日低于2万亿。券商净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="qbzCHKw2BG8zfYVtCvmQ4Y" data-dm-ref="109"><span data-page-node-id="fYBNr4w2ca0WIq1QOv272V" data-dm-ref="110" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">18.75亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、金融地产净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="sjlzPUNZGTnhvqWGsJ9sAl" data-dm-ref="111"><span data-page-node-id="Y3dxuYlGdS72XlDCgj4qei" data-dm-ref="112" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">12亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,是权重在维稳,不是增量进场。涨的是硬资产与金融,杀的是科技与制造。价平量缩,上攻动能不足。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="hjRjHxADMnS4yvivbcRdKj" data-dm-ref="113" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">三、资金撤离 AI/芯片,抢筹实物锚</span></p><p data-page-node-id="xRUrGK8AEXuWz3OQRNcB90" data-dm-ref="114" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">中芯概念&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="NJtne0PGhvWkJ4M61JKvRG" data-dm-ref="115"><span data-page-node-id="VXn2DG0hRckWl0Ty8zwlQm" data-dm-ref="116" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-26.62亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;对黄金&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="flHzc7WmXiyzTnNkWNIQ1S" data-dm-ref="117"><span data-page-node-id="Um1lvAVVg2leqEScdolAu4" data-dm-ref="118" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+15.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、培育钻石&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="T8PdcCBkhYIBdtGGWiR9UD" data-dm-ref="119"><span data-page-node-id="YdRVtQLjiGz9QFwRnKibI8" data-dm-ref="120" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+18.25亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,这个剪刀差就是今天的底层语言。聪明钱在撤离久期资产、转向实物锚。培育钻石、黄金、白银、有色的共同标签是「实物稀缺对冲法币信用」,在加息+地缘+AI表外债务的三重不确定性下,这个生态位易守难攻。不是它们变强了,是对手盘变弱了。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="t9E4bDECeikudc2TcpVrkL" data-dm-ref="121" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">四、能源通胀链条闭环,AI 的边际成本是电力</span></p><p data-page-node-id="5XOBg7XnrNOmvEUqNDjHgF" data-dm-ref="122" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">中东局势 → LNG现货三年新高、较战前翻倍 → 美国零售柴油4年高位&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="p8L9XqFyA1AhkBjiLe14QO" data-dm-ref="123"><span data-page-node-id="7m7HRiJzxtncENJZz42JRX" data-dm-ref="124" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5.783美元/加仑</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;→ 运输成本推升 → 加息预期&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="RvWYEq8qEJ1bUHqTurPH9l" data-dm-ref="125"><span data-page-node-id="pczw9FcoGqiXLXiYsWL4Gf" data-dm-ref="126" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">37%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;→&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="K6UiChWOrTjBKkCE6hyWpw" data-dm-ref="127"><span data-page-node-id="GBwcaedebde5tglhqTUFsS" data-dm-ref="128" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">67%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;→ AI估值压缩。马斯克给数字:2027年AI芯片电力缺口至少&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="yGqEP98L88OEtCTL8juyzc" data-dm-ref="129"><span data-page-node-id="u8ltVH13Nt8d0ZZGPXUo6a" data-dm-ref="130" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">15吉瓦</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,芯片产能年增&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="FA9JpCKCJXrrdvI5MEyEAb" data-dm-ref="131"><span data-page-node-id="SupzCIeviL8IJZUA2U5rJR" data-dm-ref="132" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">40-50%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,电力只增&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="TFd6A3cIR0jKuAW8LZliLj" data-dm-ref="133"><span data-page-node-id="OPbBtQ6YZ6niCyPKLQVCss" data-dm-ref="134" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">10-20%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。韩国电力要求三星、SK海力士预付&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="PMNXfMQNn2NP7mfjpqYzRf" data-dm-ref="135"><span data-page-node-id="1HMgAD7zx3IlaFLhq4GnSn" data-dm-ref="136" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">25万亿韩元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;电费。巴克莱补刀:</span><strong data-page-node-id="cdZfumDGxXDN8BccAUHGcp" data-dm-ref="137"><span data-page-node-id="p70hheaJDktxFT2uMnTd99" data-dm-ref="138" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">71%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;美国人反对家门口建数据中心,电费涨幅&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="CosyoZaIpvMiqFv5DhNJui" data-dm-ref="139"><span data-page-node-id="jPCnlEoHfRm3hMsZrgpmxC" data-dm-ref="140" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">24%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。AI的边际成本不是显卡折旧,是电力,而电力供应弹性在物理层面拉不动。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="dA4xH1NMjcMAFlWgczzeZH" data-dm-ref="141" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">五、券商护盘是化妆费,不是增量</span></p><p data-page-node-id="APmXNjpeR7pK11Js1uFEBm" data-dm-ref="142" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">券商&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="ncm5SZW5R5KXDnfsGMoPFW" data-dm-ref="143"><span data-page-node-id="093oVZqQxwFTKxZ5USVYtj" data-dm-ref="144" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+18.75亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、金融地产&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="jpbbzwG3ewi3rGvr2UgAlK" data-dm-ref="145"><span data-page-node-id="ZwBER4nrG9iJGzj42TnIlk" data-dm-ref="146" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+12亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,是权重在「维稳颜值」。真正的增量应该是把AI算力链从「信仰仓」降为「赔率仓」,把黄金、白银、实物资源升为「底仓」。仓位&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="m5jU3QEico6W518m96IDRK" data-dm-ref="147"><span data-page-node-id="0QON7jA2mONwnMWcniLw1h" data-dm-ref="148" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">20-30%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;试错,止损&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="OqHJxHVvNxmNU8rsQzFHWb" data-dm-ref="149"><span data-page-node-id="jH7HIhgSUhd2Dk55wLo5xQ" data-dm-ref="150" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">5%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,持仓周期&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="ZsGLGpNGr9BgnkPezlE4bG" data-dm-ref="151"><span data-page-node-id="Mfh2OANoDpo4bPv4rkQLwB" data-dm-ref="152" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">7天</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。首选培育钻石主线(黄X旋风,联动四X达需盘中确认量能)、黄金有色(白X有色涨停但防高位分歧)、热管理(思X新材仅限高风险偏好)、券商补涨(国X证券低吸勿追板)。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="ZS7pkdOH7vJ4TCHpEm5Kcy" data-dm-ref="153" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">六、20cm 小票和次新是流动性收缩的第一批祭品</span></p><p data-page-node-id="PxvKr2iZ0u20CB0N9Te3Wq" data-dm-ref="154" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">思X新材&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="qAN2Pdng42jYuUyfYjVXcV" data-dm-ref="155"><span data-page-node-id="BgGw2j2gDOjBhSQVzV0B5A" data-dm-ref="156" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+20%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;涨停、金X现代、洁X生物这类20cm小票,和北交所新股N金钛&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="tDaHgGnJFpEMnsdKipWcl2" data-dm-ref="157"><span data-page-node-id="hpCo3LhlwKSI2xyE8P3u5b" data-dm-ref="158" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+149%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,在流动性收缩场景下最先被清算。它们是市场的情绪,不是骨骼。亚X集团涨停但量比仅&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="0tEVkRAcZjDGGP0aLvBYAo" data-dm-ref="159"><span data-page-node-id="xuCHanfyV4KnI2kNIFqXvn" data-dm-ref="160" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">0.79</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,无量拉升是假信号,不纳入交易;长X科技量比&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="VWRlZNYHlaM69JqXuQzNzM" data-dm-ref="161"><span data-page-node-id="wyc0PRPQBSaTgFwa3gUbU3" data-dm-ref="162" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">0.73</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、5日净流出&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="aANHqvN39l1f1sGinszKyd" data-dm-ref="163"><span data-page-node-id="fB3DQL9544t7GdWbb1WnK8" data-dm-ref="164" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">48.4亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,资金持续撤离,不碰;宁X时代反弹&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="niFYNuA2RIyG8M2wRNjzoU" data-dm-ref="165"><span data-page-node-id="jUCBPsHPbTJrXsoAAA0Haf" data-dm-ref="166" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+0.35%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;但量比&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="NxAFxyvXft6bGTOjbE7QqI" data-dm-ref="167"><span data-page-node-id="jHrAd8mx0ADzWbDpLQQiF3" data-dm-ref="168" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">1.06</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、5日净流出&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Fl5nIH3YfExCEBtNi8oTc1" data-dm-ref="169"><span data-page-node-id="ZJ2UX2b3jbHQ1jWlq6xRZq" data-dm-ref="170" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">26.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,龙头未获机构回补确认,仅作观察。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="UQtGco1yCSFkODUDXF7Kw3" data-dm-ref="171" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">需要验证的</span></p><p data-page-node-id="4eilvB5GqmvCzQvx1r5kM5" data-dm-ref="172" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 8px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="IJ4YLxvfWLYQahR3nKH7gx" data-dm-ref="173"><span data-page-node-id="RMZkNdbuG3BqyYmZ3c4a1N" data-dm-ref="174" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">01</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 加息概率:观测9月FOMC前的CME数据,</span><strong data-page-node-id="Xo5B0jRUSF452bCCneewL3" data-dm-ref="175"><span data-page-node-id="z8NnGOzPSpTWoS9ejNe7go" data-dm-ref="176" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">67%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;继续走高还是回落,是这条主线的生死线。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="1y9LxugiuRRjyePoyoDS0J" data-dm-ref="177" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 8px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="wsC0DChkpV9n0VoaX4b9eH" data-dm-ref="178"><span data-page-node-id="DdFPgf2DCp08qwjgGNhmg4" data-dm-ref="179" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">02</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 培育钻石/黄金能否守住:明天看这两条线的量比和净流入是否延续,熄火则避险逻辑松动。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="32G50kklIM1ye4n0WyvW5i" data-dm-ref="180" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 8px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="r0GRnX7RFrbcGiKgkrI5Re" data-dm-ref="181"><span data-page-node-id="wICNZdX7BSNZTbUbRhlePS" data-dm-ref="182" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">03</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; AI/芯片是否继续流出:中芯概念、AI应用的资金流若转正,说明资金重新回流久期资产。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="tJkEtEJFz6dxyuhEdGy4eD" data-dm-ref="183" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 8px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="vhi4YIkcGQ2cm3JjKmlLNr" data-dm-ref="184"><span data-page-node-id="1dKuOHVQ1pVgSSizSm18Ho" data-dm-ref="185" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">04</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 创业板缺口:收盘是否回补&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="bWQjes3zCL5dJSLPyGg0dj" data-dm-ref="186"><span data-page-node-id="cR5nN0xNMlTdOeq1dvGz6H" data-dm-ref="187" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3270-3290</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、是否向&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="mW5RMur5YjECis3OCR8JJr" data-dm-ref="188"><span data-page-node-id="pBMFX7ZMXCyGBx8dBHJBtl" data-dm-ref="189" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3100</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;靠拢,这是补跌路径的确认点。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="8URZXl8p27fNqW9LX2QED1" data-dm-ref="190" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="KEnTtKfepmSRBWrDCrzCJh" data-dm-ref="191"><span data-page-node-id="q3TAGa2xURjWJDMBU8AZ8Y" data-dm-ref="192" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">05</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 成交额:能否回到&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="mywIPyk9g4OL2Nyajz9R80" data-dm-ref="193"><span data-page-node-id="A8zlm57IP9Hzs7BoC3EsAp" data-dm-ref="194" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">2万亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,缩量不破&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="9vzFCAUjxWXPSSmTUo0J7Q" data-dm-ref="195"><span data-page-node-id="ByBHrTNb82v8nWDOVGaSme" data-dm-ref="196" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">1.78万亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;则普跌难反转。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="rHNCy5p3zs7YcoiGmtgSDA" data-dm-ref="197" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><section data-page-node-id="aBrAByloYF96J7pb9bu5ce" data-dm-ref="198" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 12px;padding: 12px 14px;background-color: rgb(241, 248, 244);border-left: 4px solid rgb(0, 160, 80);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="ODH4b8b7nAvAJsyHYk9Rzj" data-dm-ref="199" style="margin: 0px 0px 4px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">正面(避险逻辑证伪)</span></p><p data-page-node-id="ELCZQMQEHjtGgGm7wyiHlo" data-dm-ref="200" style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">加息概率回落、AI/芯片重新放量上涨、成交回到&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="hM12oOPxgScPkfXRgFH0fO" data-dm-ref="201"><span data-page-node-id="yzBIr5C3L3LlBoAm7k3RW1" data-dm-ref="202" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">2万亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,三条同时出现,避险逻辑证伪,可重新进攻。</span></p></section><section data-page-node-id="NOeHkv01zhyQ5ndH0Obvlu" data-dm-ref="203" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;padding: 12px 14px;background-color: rgb(253, 243, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(212, 53, 28);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="of6ufqkexhh3jgfVufPG35" data-dm-ref="204" style="margin: 0px 0px 4px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">反面(判断成立)</span></p><p data-page-node-id="ytYqcBU2wTClxYoLWEjAJ0" data-dm-ref="205" style="margin: 0px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">加息落地、创业板跌破&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="1KMfrNspKUXMxEtJQBgvK4" data-dm-ref="206"><span data-page-node-id="UAR6U8NKQb6Q0tUk6tcKat" data-dm-ref="207" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">3285</span></span></strong><span leaf="">(今日低点),判断成立,减AI、守实物底仓,动作提前于价格,而不是追着价格跑。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库