官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

9月4日AI复盘

发布于 2026-09-04

<section data-page-node-id="fIuNl83edsvPumPHccKEWP" data-dm-ref="6" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(251, 247, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);border-radius: 4px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><p data-page-node-id="6QWVaDBoUiwtR128nXT7DN" data-dm-ref="7" style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(184, 149, 110);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享,不构成投资建议。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="6QWVaDBoUiwtR128nXT7DN" data-dm-ref="7" style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(184, 149, 110);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">一句话结论</span></p><p data-page-node-id="qt5UGZ0vWBDtCBKNKxHPQw" data-dm-ref="8" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">上证收&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="KwXpc6BvhX1wGYnTMkno4L" data-dm-ref="9"><span data-page-node-id="WglMPW2DaIpAaqvitcm2mo" data-dm-ref="10" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">3930.12</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="J2aQbeNVVGMwU6EpocgScZ" data-dm-ref="11"><span data-page-node-id="HjLFC7dIs4vQChGVHLr6hx" data-dm-ref="12" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">0.30%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,深证跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="FtkPn8qBFln53kW8QWNL6H" data-dm-ref="13"><span data-page-node-id="53SzgIacwXsxjp9hwS0Ash" data-dm-ref="14" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">0.79%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,创业板跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="cmEHZcrHC6KmV7PVoyVlps" data-dm-ref="15"><span data-page-node-id="UzzO0WFBmGuxCBjEQcLq97" data-dm-ref="16" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">0.78%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,三线收阴。上证盘中振幅&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="AsswSQPP5aCqCI9Pc3DErQ" data-dm-ref="17"><span data-page-node-id="FPtYI5R7ahUC5w0vwDrE8c" data-dm-ref="18" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">64.98</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;点,冲高回落收在日内低位。表面看是"跌指数、涨个股"的温和调整,其实是退潮期的防御脉冲:钱从科技硬件撤出来,躲进消费、农业、军工,涨停榜上趴满了亏损股。这不是新主线的起点,是最后一批高风险资金在劣质筹码里转手。防御的钱撑不起连续行情,唯一真金流入的是军工。</span></p></section><p data-page-node-id="2lCc40ikrMFDEubtUBkCEY" data-dm-ref="19" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p><p data-page-node-id="ucWY0DwDH7BCMIQCd1VhV9" data-dm-ref="20" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="MHCMocef9GZc23IZLfPEBV" data-dm-ref="21"><span data-page-node-id="sXZELueGrwKWBs3sI7mOOU" data-dm-ref="22" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">01</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 枢纽判断</span></p><p data-page-node-id="wwe2DVqkL0s6FMz6vt9uxK" data-dm-ref="23" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">中X船舶是今天的资金龙头,单股主力净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="mBO6y1yQhC9YpMWru23gZy" data-dm-ref="24"><span data-page-node-id="m4vgkUW0Air2br3V1fHRAZ" data-dm-ref="25" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+20.65 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、全市场第一,量比&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="WIqcBmKFano7L03XeQFgcE" data-dm-ref="26"><span data-page-node-id="ijCDHeE7mkC2X7yJsnTAOA" data-dm-ref="27" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4.13</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,涨停附近报收。它撑起军工这条防御主线。但一个龙头带不动全场——贵X茅台&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="dSjcvOFuyKVQ1SW4DL66WN" data-dm-ref="28"><span data-page-node-id="0NxpCpcQCeg4AaatxXhgUb" data-dm-ref="29" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+2.40%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、五X液&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="lcN5UiBepY4g1YVn9n0KnR" data-dm-ref="30"><span data-page-node-id="KixWQlaXUAwzEDH4zuKGtC" data-dm-ref="31" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+1.84%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;逆势上涨,权重护盘掩盖不了整体走弱。一旦中X船舶高位缩量回踩,防御主线就没了龙头,指数会更难看。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="VVNYRXoeW17XwrXwRGlVu1" data-dm-ref="32" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="MVdj6RzUobKeC6s35FZ9It" data-dm-ref="33"><span data-page-node-id="eURxbpHx7ttKX5Ig2V4boF" data-dm-ref="34" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">02</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 轮动判断</span></p><p data-page-node-id="kJTGO1aYcLxeFOXxxzr7O1" data-dm-ref="35" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">火源是军工船舶,第一圈扩散到农业养殖、影视传媒、数字货币、酒类消费,第二圈是白色家电、电力设备、门户网站、大众出版。方向是从科技硬件向防御消费扩散。但这轮扩散的质量差——涨停榜成分是北交所次新、ST 股、亏损股,赚钱效应集中在劣质资产,是退潮期的扩散,不是进攻轮动。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="QzzpKE85SINb3LXn3iG5hb" data-dm-ref="36" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="nvcQ8EFSJiXwj8wX1hJVgB" data-dm-ref="37"><span data-page-node-id="50Xvtfz7EmzcBsSaVKWq1I" data-dm-ref="38" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">03</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 北向判断</span></p><p data-page-node-id="nqbCPu0N5UUrxlLuAjaMqN" data-dm-ref="39" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">北向指标&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="4eT47l8DGioR4NBGJqRXY1" data-dm-ref="40"><span data-page-node-id="crBK9i49D1YwHd8ADFL7O2" data-dm-ref="41" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">8/31</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;见高后连降&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="icqLvZVyEhW5BHCtANxIqO" data-dm-ref="42"><span data-page-node-id="wvh4y6DuDozzO1kBRQ76Gn" data-dm-ref="43" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">3 日</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,与指数同向走弱,外资边际动能衰减,对高位题材接力不利。这个指标的绝对单位没标明,方向判断(连续回落)可用,具体数值存疑。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="kEVvCjTc1m3hRlrR9ahOBu" data-dm-ref="44" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="xkqpjvX1hltKY6LqrrBXHG" data-dm-ref="45"><span data-page-node-id="TwSCyaDgczNhoY48qEDkYz" data-dm-ref="46" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">04</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 未被定价的信号</span></p><p data-page-node-id="np8FpHKQIxAr8j8y7qxX9f" data-dm-ref="47" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">全球 AI 叙事正在迁移。高盛自己捅破"Token 定价"——AI 推理定价指数 8 月暴跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="baVlO3RDTqEklsPsDigTWl" data-dm-ref="48"><span data-page-node-id="BEEeVi9L5TIAxQYBq61Etd" data-dm-ref="49" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">29%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,每百万 Token 跌破&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="bSSsixB7kIxRAVhxK5VEL4" data-dm-ref="50"><span data-page-node-id="CkbdwCkuwCU3CkCsnemtcS" data-dm-ref="51" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">1 美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">;英伟达&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="lJopxrokuCCItwIDFTL19Z" data-dm-ref="52"><span data-page-node-id="L6S0sD4DABv94fQEqGciWO" data-dm-ref="53" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">129 亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;收购 Hugging Face,从卖芯片转向锁生态。A股的 AI 硬件(CPO/光模块)已经定价下跌,但软件、应用、数据要素方向才第一波抬价,拥挤度远低于硬件。这个迁移还没被 A股完整定价。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="qqETbsVJ8XVnyKxHt0JMfb" data-dm-ref="54" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;height: 1px;background-color: rgb(236, 231, 222);margin: 0px 0px 22px;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></section><p data-page-node-id="QTCsEbAqqeAJvVcAXdFSmZ" data-dm-ref="55" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p><p data-page-node-id="hFADR8W1EoVRLwmAneDOpM" data-dm-ref="56" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="a4hNCwy8nuzInXgvn1kbBk" data-dm-ref="57"><span data-page-node-id="yTmZMVKPyy8Py51Es6FB4G" data-dm-ref="58" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">一</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 放量收阴不是健康换手,是高位对倒</span></p><p data-page-node-id="m8aBifTRBHZGHYWOoNd05d" data-dm-ref="59" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">上证&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="ZD1ACWA41MVBdPEBBfqyCg" data-dm-ref="60"><span data-page-node-id="0W7rG0hvwwexFG7qE5zLea" data-dm-ref="61" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-0.30%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;收 3930.12,深证&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="n1RK3519I8B4hnB8ZW308Q" data-dm-ref="62"><span data-page-node-id="eS3z4xVUfBk7CiLprph5dG" data-dm-ref="63" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-0.79%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,创业板&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="TD3p5M57OMDXcBGzJ89ywh" data-dm-ref="64"><span data-page-node-id="Xx6vzsZqQYXTnrT3yVdUBL" data-dm-ref="65" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-0.78%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,三线收阴。盘面描述里"半日放量&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="iknPPlGgI5Dk6oHXSklu1A" data-dm-ref="66"><span data-page-node-id="eVsSXhO1UUTH8XK7jxLT5b" data-dm-ref="67" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">1355 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、</span><strong data-page-node-id="xWcxJHoqSarHkb1L0kZSHk" data-dm-ref="68"><span data-page-node-id="TpAjBjRYW4Wdvgp94rsFYE" data-dm-ref="69" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4100 股</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;飘红"被说成"跌指数、涨个股"的健康结构,拆开看是另一回事:拉指数的是权重在失血,散户在低位题材里交易。放量下跌不是健康,是高位换手。涨停约&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="F5dH5grbvD3uvIbsO3uwhh" data-dm-ref="70"><span data-page-node-id="bfepV6H7tcJ7ESeLbdZQ6l" data-dm-ref="71" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">35 家</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,落在中低水平下沿,情绪处在启动偏弱阶段,撑不起重仓。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="Br536ozDkeo91oKrbqiCTY" data-dm-ref="72" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="td02ohFXrMfAWFvb1a2l4V" data-dm-ref="73"><span data-page-node-id="msWVlgEH41godn1yKhszz8" data-dm-ref="74" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">二</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 钱从科技硬件撤向防御,是防御不是进攻</span></p><p data-page-node-id="0f0Y8RGZDmymMSBZhNdXmO" data-dm-ref="75" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 8px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">今天资金流出榜清一色是前期硬科技:大飞机&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="qlzznY2IQvUj1icOHKKn5Q" data-dm-ref="76"><span data-page-node-id="bEHjGiQpI3chsW0Ou5EQSf" data-dm-ref="77" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-6.86 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、磁悬浮&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="qldn3GiEWumJgbJviCUZUD" data-dm-ref="78"><span data-page-node-id="6yCNkGidX42gwOJADKM4r2" data-dm-ref="79" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-6.55 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、培育钻石&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="WrPOCJEv0HoXKSkp6hCbIv" data-dm-ref="80"><span data-page-node-id="MDyq0ckHnZdZEnGJdjS48u" data-dm-ref="81" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-6.41 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、复合集流体&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="176wVNVyUwZHpnINXC9jix" data-dm-ref="82"><span data-page-node-id="68uTEARfrVfWIohf5uCzYg" data-dm-ref="83" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-6.34 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、全息技术&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="IzcFdo77k7Q3zxvzbgHMx2" data-dm-ref="84"><span data-page-node-id="qzjhC7LtThyCDLHHFG2Zr7" data-dm-ref="85" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-6.33 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、刀片电池&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="iC2sAfUbVAxC1Q9G1U2dT7" data-dm-ref="86"><span data-page-node-id="qBjHknQudcx4eGdpTG7YqT" data-dm-ref="87" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-6.20 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、数字孪生&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="SCFHeZR0PVuWzmuomwwJcu" data-dm-ref="88"><span data-page-node-id="8gzYMlWihrUcufucTS032z" data-dm-ref="89" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-6.14 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="31VvHdRcCQXTRLN0OiGNDa" data-dm-ref="90" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">流入的是内容、消费、农业、家电:医药商业&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="UzhX29AEuL3cunSupnYjXP" data-dm-ref="91"><span data-page-node-id="5cn9cN69JvAz3YltsADNDG" data-dm-ref="92" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.29 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、综合电力设备商&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="VRNvp2Lz2PGN2iAsUv0lzY" data-dm-ref="93"><span data-page-node-id="lBZcToKPzAxCjUV7eJUKlV" data-dm-ref="94" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.18 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、影视院线&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="ePJbGZX9gFuoCspfj6eSyZ" data-dm-ref="95"><span data-page-node-id="gdn25YFJpRROAHVAldTHN7" data-dm-ref="96" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.17 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、其他酒类&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="ZAYja9hCbxYJhTQOBBKKBN" data-dm-ref="97"><span data-page-node-id="6emitn6JNSgCQvRUHr3rlE" data-dm-ref="98" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+2.88 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。流出的全是靠故事撑估值的板块,流入的全是有现金流的防御资产。这不是轮动,是资金整体从科技转向防御。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="WzGir1BdSP9wqprFgcGDWN" data-dm-ref="99" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="Fi4EWhGev4TVmVFgS2lQ5B" data-dm-ref="100"><span data-page-node-id="PMMBVwygboBXzrwsECLIQO" data-dm-ref="101" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">三</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 涨停的亏损股最危险,消费的钱撑不起连续性</span></p><p data-page-node-id="rAGchVyFwGlZVZIlBczNEO" data-dm-ref="102" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 8px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">涨停榜翻一遍:北交所次新 N华汇&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Tt5hiOlPWijncog8eDj2EA" data-dm-ref="103"><span data-page-node-id="Lp7R9PgPLGpThCiRoFc1Ov" data-dm-ref="104" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+111.74%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、金X股份&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="GFUVFrkWdjeMYuTC0xdIDR" data-dm-ref="105"><span data-page-node-id="S26kBasrhr3sCPyWMGNQLH" data-dm-ref="106" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+188%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、大X生物&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="EAnO2qkAbBBlCWJb5NVWZm" data-dm-ref="107"><span data-page-node-id="qfcv0B13mBaMf5WHvCCaXd" data-dm-ref="108" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+17.7%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、豆X神&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Jc1RTAohLbVmFD7XedIohl" data-dm-ref="109"><span data-page-node-id="VExgnWGcuKbz7VKQmLE2Zy" data-dm-ref="110" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+10.42%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,还有我X我家&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Xy2PkzGbx1mO22Y7UTghVq" data-dm-ref="111"><span data-page-node-id="b8FWEe7TbItBfmzqDMbfHG" data-dm-ref="112" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+10.14%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、欢X世纪&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="DWLjh0X3l5UlT80OKVnQGn" data-dm-ref="113"><span data-page-node-id="Oll7EdTjlsKfMZCrf21E4j" data-dm-ref="114" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+10.04%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、新X丰&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="yjWV1HBikNFy6xZQZHmjxo" data-dm-ref="115"><span data-page-node-id="zczmy3EfRFRQ02OwopEg9h" data-dm-ref="116" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+10.04%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、天X食品&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="OVf98ZhaiVKEhinVL846IK" data-dm-ref="117"><span data-page-node-id="28l2XAHQzbD7X5Nm2g1A2y" data-dm-ref="118" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+10.00%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、正X科技&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="TCGS6rCaUBWY0v6u0pOsMq" data-dm-ref="119"><span data-page-node-id="L1DZfwkFAGaApiy5v220IU" data-dm-ref="120" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+10.02%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">——清一色 TTM 亏损。满屏亏损股、ST 股、北交所次新。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="j2THEppWJ4rsJu5v8pxfZi" data-dm-ref="121" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">养殖涨停潮(新X望、罗X山、天X食品)下注的是账上最差的一批,是负期望值的猪周期对赌。真正有护城河的板块流入率反而高——其他酒类净流入率&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="ovCRfMOmaT7tnb7uRWKwf1" data-dm-ref="122"><span data-page-node-id="Rp59Jfe3cYCTE1b6SBLxDg" data-dm-ref="123" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+16.53%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">(古X龙山、会X山涨停)、综合电力设备商&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="6YMNRINHvqVTp0cZno19a5" data-dm-ref="124"><span data-page-node-id="BFxrqy5jT1tRheYlSKLTlE" data-dm-ref="125" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+18.51%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">(东X电气为代表),但资金买的是低估值现金流和实物属性,不是"消费复苏"的故事。消费股今天的钱是防御的钱,风险偏好一回升就会撤退。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="FVNYER5fwDSaHs93LM4tok" data-dm-ref="126" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="vBILcc0B4NxF6yiPfZBxp1" data-dm-ref="127"><span data-page-node-id="sOKylfmFWSRLUde8Yesi2s" data-dm-ref="128" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">四</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 全球 AI 叙事迁移,硬件资本开支被证伪</span></p><p data-page-node-id="WgUL5f6wovFuQZVDrhOBWJ" data-dm-ref="129" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">高盛自己的报告:AI 推理定价指数 8 月暴跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="tUj9c40vkJTUl2RB0lCQ5U" data-dm-ref="130"><span data-page-node-id="yPg8Ro3lsJFj3H3DZPdFg8" data-dm-ref="131" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">29%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,每百万 Token 跌破&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="dqc5JBzYnq1bmX1tCX4ZYT" data-dm-ref="132"><span data-page-node-id="FA1L94T2vDmQth7CcBTRye" data-dm-ref="133" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">1 美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,量升价跌在瓦解"Token 越多 = 收入越多"的资本开支闭环。同时英伟达&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="5tZVbRHX0y2gJw9axeqZCp" data-dm-ref="134"><span data-page-node-id="WI2GKfYjAxGS2vkWOgCw5G" data-dm-ref="135" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">129 亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;买下 Hugging Face,从卖芯片转向锁开发者生态。翻译过来:算力硬件的资本开支逻辑在被证伪。A股的反应是硬件下跌、传媒上涨(AI 应用)、门户网站流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="mgOFLpuqDMGP9hr3TqhcxH" data-dm-ref="136"><span data-page-node-id="kPPVM56xmtThZmF0vrgPpt" data-dm-ref="137" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+2.36 亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、数字货币掀涨停潮。但应用端才第一波抬价,体量远小于硬件流出。软件、应用、数据要素的持仓拥挤度仍远低于硬件——这是赔率不对称的地方。不过 A股应用端大多没业绩,中期只能做短期交易,不能当信仰拿。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="hZ1I1tDw06ROeAwL1BmoVl" data-dm-ref="138" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="hwLOSoCa1zOFPVzlJRgGS7" data-dm-ref="139"><span data-page-node-id="vGxd2e7mELk155YOaBi3tC" data-dm-ref="140" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">五</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 今晚非农是压轴的全球变量</span></p><p data-page-node-id="Tt2K7xdikijTbbkYhosIIJ" data-dm-ref="141" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">伦敦金失守&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="9gnMwXFeuIcGRjICKIFgil" data-dm-ref="142"><span data-page-node-id="gNs9LHCLZywa0po2sQX96u" data-dm-ref="143" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">4460 美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,布油&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="62ISLMwx616EdUSIAZk2EX" data-dm-ref="144"><span data-page-node-id="GzyeFrFL3F7t7bLUlnZB9C" data-dm-ref="145" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">95.65 美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;创 7 月来最大单周涨幅,美元兑日元&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="HD8HweM95iZxQ5bba0D8RJ" data-dm-ref="146"><span data-page-node-id="aGHAuH8k2H57PXr6yzzP0X" data-dm-ref="147" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">156.28</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、日元两日累涨近&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Js6jUvNfisLKGNN7Hf1a12" data-dm-ref="148"><span data-page-node-id="5IuodopMSf8AEHB5joz8oI" data-dm-ref="149" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">3%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。背后是三条线:日元套息平仓、挪威拟减持&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="jTZLWTuvK5TLSQYjkmM9e5" data-dm-ref="150"><span data-page-node-id="fWDvJ1iBfYuBnGNFwJDE8M" data-dm-ref="151" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">800 亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;美债转向 MBS、今晚美国 8 月非农。无论非农走哪条路——负增长则衰退定价、超预期则加息预期升温——美元资产的波动率都在向 A股外溢。今天放量下跌,就是资金在给这三重变量留撤退空间。今晚&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="V38unm1CUkIdoTFIEbvowM" data-dm-ref="152"><span data-page-node-id="qID5I5OJvGvG0dH5sQp5m5" data-dm-ref="153" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">20:30</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;前,仓位暴露要降下来。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="rjdDV7L17ymP9FDAZjAnxU" data-dm-ref="154" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="v5heGb5i9d8AiuJ7nkoIHe" data-dm-ref="155"><span data-page-node-id="pdfqsBY6lWlUDnViHSV5yK" data-dm-ref="156" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">六</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 黄金不是见顶,是算法和机构的分歧</span></p><p data-page-node-id="rNwONq3br86a4GtRZlMVch" data-dm-ref="157" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">德银报告:黄金现货资金拐点出现,对冲基金、资管、银行接力买入,</span><strong data-page-node-id="9WlHlyEx5ZMDRoiWAGtAQ3" data-dm-ref="158"><span data-page-node-id="tu0NIktzxb4mDzCqSsG1fl" data-dm-ref="159" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">4300 美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;是算法抛售触发线、</span><strong data-page-node-id="ET5XbRFZGHyYscGv7cfvZb" data-dm-ref="160"><span data-page-node-id="AgNN9vSBUof4g1C802vpuB" data-dm-ref="161" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4700 美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;是期货买入触发线,主动型投资者仍低配。"失守 4460"容易被读成见顶,但抛售的对手盘是算法和散户,接盘的是机构和央行。机构低配下的建仓才刚开始,长期赔率没坏,只是短期价格被算法放大了波动。A股黄金股若明天低开,是错杀窗口。前提是别在非农爆表、美债收益率上行的路径上提前接刀。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="iBC2nEDGeyVU3jns2GRIBf" data-dm-ref="162" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="nNgBE8SB3DQHxOpq272r8j" data-dm-ref="163"><span data-page-node-id="HlirN4p7QAHQDWho3ZZrRH" data-dm-ref="164" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">七</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 操作纪律:三成仓,不追涨停,只低吸军工</span></p><p data-page-node-id="IJJtYeS6jCEWfGtHKcHETZ" data-dm-ref="165" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">仓位&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="gnCQdzCjGJbBeaUNBwy9KB" data-dm-ref="166"><span data-page-node-id="8txBSy2idW5gAohmJcMVUW" data-dm-ref="167" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">30%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,</span><strong data-page-node-id="9NzTYvA8lISTlHuHAxzHJY" data-dm-ref="168"><span data-page-node-id="mG4kyAGMLct8TGz65yeyv0" data-dm-ref="169" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">5%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;硬止损,</span><strong data-page-node-id="Gqegh1LR4C1J30NgDNoOlq" data-dm-ref="170"><span data-page-node-id="k9wNStMMy4pSNGtJf4mHCv" data-dm-ref="171" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">7 天</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;持仓期满重新评估。重点方向军工船舶、地产链、数字货币、消费酒类、农业养殖,但真正可以低吸的只有军工——中X船舶回调 5 日线附近低吸优于追涨停。我X我家 20 日&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Xn4LRKLdBiN2OKVVNBDSAp" data-dm-ref="172"><span data-page-node-id="Mt3YvdExftZw61Z0MEfoGa" data-dm-ref="173" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+44.5%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;动量最强但 TTM 亏损,双X传动量比&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="uMwDOGWXfOvH4sDQpWYDMC" data-dm-ref="174"><span data-page-node-id="Jbnu2ADG8x9gvPUIg8sr67" data-dm-ref="175" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7.31</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;极度放量需等缩量回踩不破&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="DAz4h98hPDiVNLA2cxVjV9" data-dm-ref="176"><span data-page-node-id="OJ7wJ400xXySD2UYIaRWJv" data-dm-ref="177" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">38 元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。景X电子、德X立是科技里少数资金正流入的强趋势股,作轮动备选。农业养殖只低吸不追板,数字货币的恒X股份换手&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="exG7RfkTGR3jRnrHuRzOPW" data-dm-ref="178"><span data-page-node-id="8AGxEo9lfHCEm45CNCJurb" data-dm-ref="179" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">33.7%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;偏高、楚X龙量比&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="VLQapc9JNVCxrkeQFgvNPq" data-dm-ref="180"><span data-page-node-id="C9RO9dvOpF8VhfrY6dge9n" data-dm-ref="181" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">0.40</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;触发无量不交易。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="Gor4hmKBbYsCyOVmau2Ung" data-dm-ref="182" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;height: 1px;background-color: rgb(236, 231, 222);margin: 0px 0px 22px;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></section><p data-page-node-id="IPZeAMYficatP6hYTRUtJt" data-dm-ref="183" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">周一需要验证的</span></p><p data-page-node-id="7Q66V2OCIUB9UU8Ywzd2Cs" data-dm-ref="184" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="WpWx7Ils7bpZV2rZBaaBGd" data-dm-ref="185"><span data-page-node-id="1Gk8omdPC0UCUZQuc042rK" data-dm-ref="186" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">1.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;消费、农业资金是否延续净流入——若延续且涨停从亏损股扩散到有业绩龙头,退潮判断证伪,是真切换。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="tFDt0bSoNvg6Gr2ZGWO1K7" data-dm-ref="187" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="b4QFpYFFxcFmDQC8GNrZEU" data-dm-ref="188"><span data-page-node-id="BsuK1YUTuHbZWzlJAPz8If" data-dm-ref="189" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">2.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;北向是否止跌回升——若回升且涨停家数回到&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="xFB6zm3MGaWC7yt8sgShM1" data-dm-ref="190"><span data-page-node-id="DUxq4FE9j70WhxC2lLGErC" data-dm-ref="191" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">60</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;以上,情绪修复,防御可以松口气。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="wjpJq4vsQv2ychNAwa25Il" data-dm-ref="192" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="JDMI3fnlR92VRs269vrRbQ" data-dm-ref="193"><span data-page-node-id="9qG676JGFwhLcvEwfKaBiF" data-dm-ref="194" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;AI 硬件是否资金回流——若 CPO/光模块资金转正,高低切换是假承接,科技没走完。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="pcfOpVV3YwBrNQCg3PsIw8" data-dm-ref="195" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="yWQhs59Ulas4aaz5N4XTfT" data-dm-ref="196"><span data-page-node-id="Axv1um1bj0zSqN3FqiSsHO" data-dm-ref="197" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">4.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;非农落地后 A股开盘方向——低开则延续退潮;高开反抽一日,是卖出窗口不是买点。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="vbI2Epvtg4ra0LIxZtghV5" data-dm-ref="198" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="gewm5pcdvfrgsXEXfxDdLn" data-dm-ref="199"><span data-page-node-id="eKpeW8x4do2HyA1Lk22YKl" data-dm-ref="200" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">5.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;中X船舶能否继续放量——高位龙头若缩量回踩,防御主线失龙头,指数更难看。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="p384OvaIPD9l4yLfbimcmK" data-dm-ref="201" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(253, 243, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(212, 53, 28);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="ze1FyoiAHcII9sRU73sHXO" data-dm-ref="202" style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(212, 53, 28);font-weight: bold;"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><p data-page-node-id="AAzKGWg57n93PQ58IRkaTk" data-dm-ref="203" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="wxZmUCfuFr4qChEzQr9Mzg" data-dm-ref="204"><span leaf="">正面——</span></strong><span leaf="">周一消费农业继续净流入、涨停扩散到有业绩龙头、北向止跌回升,说明是真风格切换,可以低吸有业绩的防御龙头(军工船舶、电力设备、现金流酒企),仓位从&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="cpQqEiPXtUmFLOW1ujNTRp" data-dm-ref="205"><span data-page-node-id="d7NL8PrDq4FgIOhLmXfwI6" data-dm-ref="206" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">30%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;往上加。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="tWEHuwxh7X0jEgfB7N6GtE" data-dm-ref="207" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="dO2ahiltKCV9FdA93G5Tky" data-dm-ref="208"><span leaf="">反面——</span></strong><span leaf="">周一 AI 硬件资金回流、涨停家数回到&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Dx0EjdmofqzGkQBi3kTwBb" data-dm-ref="209"><span data-page-node-id="hyFKk2LlHKAwQfnOWdPHqV" data-dm-ref="210" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">60</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;以上、亏损股退潮,说明"高低切换"是假承接,判断错误,要转回科技方向、停止防守。</span></p></section><section data-page-node-id="PhrIcgDBRLcQZblDsRVY9g" data-dm-ref="211" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;padding: 14px 16px;background-color: rgb(250, 248, 245);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="VvUBMHsA0OjKJuWWrN4KXX" data-dm-ref="212" style="margin: 0px;font-size: 13px;line-height: 1.75;color: rgb(138, 138, 138);"><span leaf="">本文为AI复盘记录,所涉个股与板块仅用于逻辑说明,不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险,决策请独立。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库