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9月7日AI复盘

发布于 2026-09-07

<section data-page-node-id="lTACJwhqewp8DiyfgKghk1" data-dm-ref="6" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(251, 247, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);border-radius: 4px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><p data-page-node-id="BltxHyTgdtLEIJqmM9KE68" data-dm-ref="7" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">仅作AI复盘分享, 不构成投资建议。</span></span></p><p data-page-node-id="BltxHyTgdtLEIJqmM9KE68" data-dm-ref="7" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">上证只涨</span><strong data-page-node-id="Oa82tirgSCXyxIOul6H2qx" data-dm-ref="8"><span data-page-node-id="znhS5kOsFXy8cZTbsf2sEH" data-dm-ref="9" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">0.07%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、成交额</span><strong data-page-node-id="GPUAGmB61wHVoo7QVDihtp" data-dm-ref="10"><span data-page-node-id="KAxRA0TNwrZ1kQXPr28DKE" data-dm-ref="11" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">8979亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,电子加通信净流入却超</span><strong data-page-node-id="BJi4mlxuyLQx7Roli6fZ1M" data-dm-ref="12"><span data-page-node-id="jjBVJt8CNCtBB4fQOpFjkb" data-dm-ref="13" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">700亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这不是普涨,是资金在一条产业链上的挤兑——光模块、PCB、通信设备、半导体,全指向同一件事。盘面是强的:涨停</span><strong data-page-node-id="HIcQyJyotnU0r8M2zYA4AQ" data-dm-ref="14"><span data-page-node-id="KzBYosSdMx1PiOEJTjg4v9" data-dm-ref="15" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">93家</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、炸板率只有</span><strong data-page-node-id="CoLE2tau7mHJoFpjIP4N1f" data-dm-ref="16"><span data-page-node-id="biwmLHOZyuvJCqARIi8PQi" data-dm-ref="17" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">17%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、最高</span><strong data-page-node-id="SSV34wd6ZaEtRgCBLFpvM6" data-dm-ref="18"><span data-page-node-id="ubaMveOZWjAMQkfxCGBFM5" data-dm-ref="19" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">9板</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,优级票四重共振。但强的是宽度,不是安全——光模块个股PE冲到</span><strong data-page-node-id="oBHyNUI00KOHaWNbbGdSAd" data-dm-ref="20"><span data-page-node-id="VL85bbbBCuwPuEYpWOYSJU" data-dm-ref="21" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">534倍</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,10年期美债正在逼近</span><strong data-page-node-id="vVdy9X85qLEt8NApWZtd32" data-dm-ref="22"><span data-page-node-id="6ezcqmecXrbcRkFesb1JL2" data-dm-ref="23" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。所以答案既不是追高,也不是空仓,是轻仓短打,盯住美债这个开关。</span></p></section><p data-page-node-id="Fam7C4D9s1BbSbH1tJtIWV" data-dm-ref="24" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p><p data-page-node-id="MOz1qabYSdLG5kElnioeBd" data-dm-ref="25" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="yPMMYgPvrtK5qegbgwTqGx" data-dm-ref="26"><span data-page-node-id="0VTTvZNURUuH0jjTud2obv" data-dm-ref="27" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">01</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 枢纽在光模块,断裂点在美债</span></p><p data-page-node-id="1fvKNLBmdusGtjRDF6l5cg" data-dm-ref="28" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">资金的枢纽是光模块/CPO。中X旭创主力净流入</span><strong data-page-node-id="XJmRGjF7AnCViR8nYUXevE" data-dm-ref="29"><span data-page-node-id="aIFcXacliE99FXalwDv0KO" data-dm-ref="30" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">69.6亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,全场第一;新X盛</span><strong data-page-node-id="DGEXal6BP2gZhdKSwuDP5i" data-dm-ref="31"><span data-page-node-id="yRHzvGnc60DXuEgdp6cnCd" data-dm-ref="32" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">38.9亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,第二。这俩是60日还跌着、今天才反抽的票,一旦二次回踩,PCB、通信、半导体会跟着塌——它们是同一条链上的环节,没有独立逻辑。</span><br data-page-node-id="zDrQa61H3RonqH61uc6eLK" data-dm-ref="33" /><br data-page-node-id="rKbRI5AOfDZX6QVCSrprwN" data-dm-ref="34" /><span leaf="">断裂点不在盘面,在美债。10年期收益率逼近</span><strong data-page-node-id="LQ8jVSIEHEpJpuSBrx6iTB" data-dm-ref="35"><span data-page-node-id="Xd5TdC2SkqFaorjwGSYQGZ" data-dm-ref="36" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,日本抛美债给日元干预融资、外汇储备跌破万亿美元。这条线今天几乎没人看,但它决定的是所有百倍PE硬件股的融资成本。破5%不是黑天鹅,是数学期望。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="08tJF5T9RgpkOFeuLfF97h" data-dm-ref="37" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="QujlnUux1h6jFElZs7MjLR" data-dm-ref="38"><span data-page-node-id="U2GChBPH9fEvNUAKnhrhw6" data-dm-ref="39" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">02</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 轮动是假扩散,钱没出硬件圈</span></p><p data-page-node-id="iPMpMn4d0PEwheBFi4Fva0" data-dm-ref="40" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">资金从光模块扩散到PCB(景X电子、沪X股份、深X电路今天全涨停),再扩散到半导体。但到硬件圈边缘就停了——AI应用净流出</span><strong data-page-node-id="oL2j81oeDiYYqWsea8EBMa" data-dm-ref="41"><span data-page-node-id="Z50ci6UKqScPadSAkRN4UT" data-dm-ref="42" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">41.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、AIGC流出</span><strong data-page-node-id="N0P7WJrmAEBF27oNzPfY8C" data-dm-ref="43"><span data-page-node-id="zxKEY6ofQGCnE5fr53Brjq" data-dm-ref="44" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">29.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、国产软件流出</span><strong data-page-node-id="YweKGX8n8InXk6JauASKJh" data-dm-ref="45"><span data-page-node-id="qvqRErAJrdffv0TCtzEqTk" data-dm-ref="46" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">35.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。钱在硬件内部轮,没轮出去。这是存量聚焦,不是增量进场。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="X4VS3v98H6OsxjKtMdkD6M" data-dm-ref="47" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="YpMpZWUfibi9oXdTc3QPgO" data-dm-ref="48"><span data-page-node-id="m45h5LFbP85OtW0oukiWf9" data-dm-ref="49" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">03</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 机构在抬轿,散户在边打边撤</span></p><p data-page-node-id="Mr2UjLNWu2s8sDmWpx8pQY" data-dm-ref="50" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">电子板块资金拆开:特大单</span><strong data-page-node-id="NJryyTU3OKE455YKweIouS" data-dm-ref="51"><span data-page-node-id="0QUBnHTJpDSlzU9ABEQJXO" data-dm-ref="52" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+270.1亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、大单</span><strong data-page-node-id="1WlEJchpgh80BfVkgIE8xT" data-dm-ref="53"><span data-page-node-id="Y4lEXUA3IDsnmRXEFwkIia" data-dm-ref="54" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+36.8亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,中单</span><strong data-page-node-id="ZiiDHZ2iANwA9BUiGhaa63" data-dm-ref="55"><span data-page-node-id="hSVZcgYOekLT30lY5whXPC" data-dm-ref="56" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-150.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、小单</span><strong data-page-node-id="4tmbIiVnyyM5iywxchpI0P" data-dm-ref="57"><span data-page-node-id="AHERYJipalhfXrZXw5NDDy" data-dm-ref="58" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-155.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。机构和国家队在买,中小资金在卖。当散户对534倍PE的联X科技、281倍的源X科技失去信仰时,机构手里的筹码卖给谁——这是这轮硬件行情最脆的地方。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="4gNzAmyKuiUUGkAYvOQbnF" data-dm-ref="59" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p><p data-page-node-id="lvzXvCrX4PXC9JAF5r3MGS" data-dm-ref="60" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="2w1aKhZ4NVd7QDqBXBrYV0" data-dm-ref="61"><span data-page-node-id="KuHemhO0n8sH0P4baOOTOi" data-dm-ref="62" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">一</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 缩量反弹,不是放量主升</span></p><p data-page-node-id="ReIKVshzNjRWJebP5QvIRk" data-dm-ref="63" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">三大指数全红,量能却全部低于9月4日。上证</span><strong data-page-node-id="8lI4E1maus8JJgLUoMwBu5" data-dm-ref="64"><span data-page-node-id="2BCZkZ6eAkmknhde8qfs1o" data-dm-ref="65" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+0.07%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">(4.77亿手)、深成指</span><strong data-page-node-id="53QpeYH7oAWCj2hfII7dco" data-dm-ref="66"><span data-page-node-id="qFygVMJ3A9pwCC6kyLkDFF" data-dm-ref="67" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+1.91%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、创业板</span><strong data-page-node-id="GM8RD52Rs4WKIMdg1BgVcW" data-dm-ref="68"><span data-page-node-id="RkdtNH4JD2e6ozmYBHGshl" data-dm-ref="69" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.41%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。缩量反弹等于存量资金聚焦式修复,不是增量进场。情绪处在冰点后的启动/修复段,还没到高潮。风险就在缩量:明天不放量,反弹高度受限。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="ejgFKjRy7KbPjZXbbeTEne" data-dm-ref="70" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="Z6wFnvAjfcTD2HoO8XdU21" data-dm-ref="71"><span data-page-node-id="A8KYNGYfnzAAr2IAbo3dNZ" data-dm-ref="72" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">二</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 炸板率17%,盘面是修复不是退潮</span></p><p data-page-node-id="r3Tp0PMZ9q1nDAejc109tw" data-dm-ref="73" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">涨停</span><strong data-page-node-id="RLAYX3jYl9x6AVZ2dFhUeU" data-dm-ref="74"><span data-page-node-id="lETrckqeBYjMU63R2TYqyB" data-dm-ref="75" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">93家</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、炸板</span><strong data-page-node-id="B5s02rd3s04kZp5BPOKIO8" data-dm-ref="76"><span data-page-node-id="JENT1BD6DllBVGAASLyY51" data-dm-ref="77" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">19家</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、炸板率</span><strong data-page-node-id="xG8OAHuw3G1wOnutpesPUJ" data-dm-ref="78"><span data-page-node-id="fGGD5WztdK9h8LVW9Rezsy" data-dm-ref="79" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">17%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、连板率</span><strong data-page-node-id="HfSvNDeoeYwscnV8D6j9d8" data-dm-ref="80"><span data-page-node-id="7WxUr6kUUcAbXUEvWum954" data-dm-ref="81" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">23.7%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、最高</span><strong data-page-node-id="V1G3BMzQkyj6cIYD1fwj3Q" data-dm-ref="82"><span data-page-node-id="sMrrWTPAERCQ5xrzd2sstP" data-dm-ref="83" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">9板</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。炸板率17%是健康水平,盘面没崩,情绪还在启动期。可这恰恰是危险的地方——真正的风险还没兑现,是悬着的,不是已发生的。534倍PE的拥挤加上美债逼近5%,哪一个开关先被触发,坍塌都是几何级的。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="upIdDzLa6tUo0o8wGCUcfg" data-dm-ref="84" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="o3eWDoNfaP1F93SzBOWE7E" data-dm-ref="85"><span data-page-node-id="nuYM54VFA8YSPCEjcGlOkE" data-dm-ref="86" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">三</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 534倍PE的拥挤,是叙事兑现前的最后一段</span></p><p data-page-node-id="ZN2aQNzjyqOpHwlg6Dpvqt" data-dm-ref="87" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">光模块个股PE冲到</span><strong data-page-node-id="EtSmKF50Bf1XrTKp9BiEmI" data-dm-ref="88"><span data-page-node-id="LhO1Nals5zEidku7KFv8Ce" data-dm-ref="89" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">534倍</span></span></strong><span leaf="">(联X科技)、</span><strong data-page-node-id="tSg7YfqhZFBUSr2yKToUSq" data-dm-ref="90"><span data-page-node-id="ZELJlAfI82Vo1rbedAIei1" data-dm-ref="91" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">281倍</span></span></strong><span leaf="">(源X科技)、</span><strong data-page-node-id="nbegBMl0EMXebT1ASYOE1b" data-dm-ref="92"><span data-page-node-id="aHcHUvyv1p6ZLGolC3MN5Q" data-dm-ref="93" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">155倍</span></span></strong><span leaf="">(太X光)。钱不流进盈利,在追叙事兑现前的最后一段流动性。黄仁勋喊"AGI已来、40万张GPU",高盛力挺中X旭创看涨超</span><strong data-page-node-id="QahM0yR5GDkxqgjBfcXuhk" data-dm-ref="94"><span data-page-node-id="UnUCUAWBVj3lh1oGO4lBMG" data-dm-ref="95" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">200%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、带</span><strong data-page-node-id="huXAH5rpb6XbX11iJOVvjG" data-dm-ref="96"><span data-page-node-id="XmmI8AnVpTaFdx7RdD1lbH" data-dm-ref="97" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">80亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">回购,Anthropic 11个月锁</span><strong data-page-node-id="xoykm2Al4SY7RORkjleGHx" data-dm-ref="98"><span data-page-node-id="7IO28LDSNeCd3YrebWpewe" data-dm-ref="99" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5170亿美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">算力——卖铲人喊金矿来了,他卖的是GPU,不是你的持仓。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="YMDKEnQbhTATu4fr2QYINO" data-dm-ref="100" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="VT0xKloawd0Q7berZIzTRq" data-dm-ref="101"><span data-page-node-id="3wXnqS8uvj6FyuoD0Crtk9" data-dm-ref="102" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">四</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 美债5%是全场最大的被无视肥尾</span></p><p data-page-node-id="DhTbMFOmLwCX3URaaT3tCl" data-dm-ref="103" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">日本抛美债、外汇储备跌破万亿、10年期美债逼近</span><strong data-page-node-id="HShZGoPSIntS4i9T7D78GT" data-dm-ref="104"><span data-page-node-id="2sZ3R8iVC2JEWSqv6DjliQ" data-dm-ref="105" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这条暗线正在给全球AI融资成本上刑。A股算力硬件的高估值,本质是低利率窗口期的流动性折现。一旦破5%,534倍PE的标的做"跌80%压力测试"不是黑天鹅,是数学期望。</span><br data-page-node-id="5EYg1cb5GyV1Lkuy4Q51v3" data-dm-ref="106" /><br data-page-node-id="viCCaQEA9vcwiRI3PYxu6G" data-dm-ref="107" /><span leaf="">同一条暗线还有地缘:霍尔木兹海峡通航量降到5月以来最低、布伦特原油</span><strong data-page-node-id="ZpqEDcnVcTDSHbqQHe58QY" data-dm-ref="108"><span data-page-node-id="0KkXloUjcczgHAvAqerFhr" data-dm-ref="109" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">97美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">上方,油价是算力数据中心电费的成本项,最终会落在那批高PE股的三季报里。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="QuKp8LNts6Rh5Fqxlz1iz0" data-dm-ref="110" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="8an8s1vwld7XjG4Dmjaggi" data-dm-ref="111"><span data-page-node-id="xfOBq2yjFuS2hS2zUqUnXs" data-dm-ref="112" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">五</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 利润正从硬件向应用重分配,资金却在追旧叙事</span></p><p data-page-node-id="VMx1tkZEXzN4w59F8rC6te" data-dm-ref="113" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">国金证券点破一件事:算力利润正从上游芯片/服务器,往中游算力调度运营商和下游应用转移(算力即服务)。可今天资金爆买硬件,AI应用</span><strong data-page-node-id="RLhAQB8BRgfqOQmRxl77JH" data-dm-ref="114"><span data-page-node-id="JLPhuSbWlaxFQAzHLFxUoF" data-dm-ref="115" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-41.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、AIGC</span><strong data-page-node-id="AvXvwApLcwGkYjzP2HNtPM" data-dm-ref="116"><span data-page-node-id="L0tAwVTV0TGSPmZlBzaDHx" data-dm-ref="117" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-29.2亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">在失血。钱在追已经兑现的旧叙事,冷落的恰恰是"算力即服务"的下一棒。</span><br data-page-node-id="s5tYpFytXAdcKU8DsEJ1hA" data-dm-ref="118" /><br data-page-node-id="32B5nayTwSLKlPbqDeGQ5T" data-dm-ref="119" /><span leaf="">跷跷板的另一端也在失血——金融地产</span><strong data-page-node-id="qw6IIxAMDCqQGQukUy8YlC" data-dm-ref="120"><span data-page-node-id="vZBWAxXIxw3Pa6QlXbrroi" data-dm-ref="121" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-55.75亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、大盘价值</span><strong data-page-node-id="wimIJUwzKePBPNGHwbOlED" data-dm-ref="122"><span data-page-node-id="AOKVOtuKBLGGFhGMWlA5Ja" data-dm-ref="123" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-44.15亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,被当垃圾卖掉的高股息、真实现金流资产,恰恰是全球流动性收紧时的对冲工具。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="xCbAuh1pyUMKQeqHidFaVy" data-dm-ref="124" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="5G4AwveduYgIH44d0EbkyZ" data-dm-ref="125"><span data-page-node-id="6PD1CMHACFg4iXXdamzIAp" data-dm-ref="126" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">六</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 解禁是供给侧清算,别跟叙事混为一谈</span></p><p data-page-node-id="uuyK9ce21AA0jIHM4TdgK8" data-dm-ref="127" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">摩X线程今天</span><strong data-page-node-id="0N7QBbfc03Q5ygnFhwxxDE" data-dm-ref="128"><span data-page-node-id="UcE18JjN5hG4S6pKyjSH6J" data-dm-ref="129" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">20%跌停</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,</span><strong data-page-node-id="hPW7Y31HkiErpAYGyHkPHY" data-dm-ref="130"><span data-page-node-id="Fi0AMBEj8M6xxtoRmpEswW" data-dm-ref="131" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">2577万股</span></span></strong><span leaf="">解禁、流通盘激增</span><strong data-page-node-id="bPGjL0N0GmwdfFf7Py9sIt" data-dm-ref="132"><span data-page-node-id="qjGzjFkAQpUqO4QsJjLiYs" data-dm-ref="133" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">85%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,12月还有</span><strong data-page-node-id="7hAkT1z0ZFzkQF8iwC3HtZ" data-dm-ref="134"><span data-page-node-id="4QXneduBI8ndOm1KQzMGOZ" data-dm-ref="135" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">1.86亿股</span></span></strong><span leaf="">(占总股本</span><strong data-page-node-id="mbu4vUiTAwX8eiAwlkOZYG" data-dm-ref="136"><span data-page-node-id="d6jddus6ef9Yw6uhCiXu1f" data-dm-ref="137" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">39.55%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)待解禁。这是解禁这个物理机制对估值的清算,跟基本面无关。判断是错杀还是飞刀,标准只有一个:解禁成本价和现价的价差,谁的成本低,谁就有动机砸盘。别把解禁和算力逻辑混着看。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="RnlctVUVWHxBkDAxW2LGeT" data-dm-ref="138" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="ybsA26N92qoCKHvUSGymDJ" data-dm-ref="139"><span data-page-node-id="1Z8TnKgsDlaoklCXJ0JdT1" data-dm-ref="140" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">七</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 操作上,敢做但只敢轻仓短打</span></p><p data-page-node-id="rrT9q8UwBLBPbsiYZ1i9XD" data-dm-ref="141" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">仓位</span><strong data-page-node-id="12h6VrGDrCjMDLcp6VEiCX" data-dm-ref="142"><span data-page-node-id="GfA0tCvQcu9XxrjssEuAHj" data-dm-ref="143" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">30-40%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,单票</span><strong data-page-node-id="fNOfwN4vpH6BE89QoLfD0H" data-dm-ref="144"><span data-page-node-id="PdpZu1N94mMxEKyV2JXJdm" data-dm-ref="145" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">4-6%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,止损</span><strong data-page-node-id="QeND4s6SvkLndfchdStK1k" data-dm-ref="146"><span data-page-node-id="evkki5NtxZHO7pXk4Z5oX8" data-dm-ref="147" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,持仓</span><strong data-page-node-id="IG77irWe83SjadnmafBawL" data-dm-ref="148"><span data-page-node-id="XHd3tYPYcIdpTDar8UcScj" data-dm-ref="149" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7天</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。优先级是趋势、动量、量能、资金四重共振的票——景X电子(60日</span><strong data-page-node-id="rVFzdcqHpriHj3aoujeQue" data-dm-ref="150"><span data-page-node-id="1JQbI1BOpwZUA422CKK7Hj" data-dm-ref="151" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+45%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、今天封板,唯一长期中期短期全正的)、太X光(20日</span><strong data-page-node-id="ultddvUUWBZFpMEP7D4OEw" data-dm-ref="152"><span data-page-node-id="ugn5G07uQy9F9aYw55qBjb" data-dm-ref="153" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+45%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、量比</span><strong data-page-node-id="dTEuV9APdHDnUkUCkf9sXN" data-dm-ref="154"><span data-page-node-id="FD1zr4515FW05uARDGxLQG" data-dm-ref="155" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.81</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)。中X旭创、新X盛主力净流入前二但60日还负着,是博弈位,得等明天放量确认,警惕反抽后二次回踩。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="0tkQ6MYgC2qC3nNmDcMIdR" data-dm-ref="156" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;height: 1px;background-color: rgb(236, 231, 222);margin: 0px 0px 22px;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></section><p data-page-node-id="Pb8ZzNm5pmnCLDHSvt7lBP" data-dm-ref="157" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></p><p data-page-node-id="5fnunxOVegndx8ojLDof0X" data-dm-ref="158" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 18px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="u6SAc0eCyw72cZygCA3ACv" data-dm-ref="159"><span data-page-node-id="8V4ZPxb5enCsCTrlCX0bkt" data-dm-ref="160" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">01</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="dCCLMyBW6LB4keVZ9cTrsf" data-dm-ref="161"><span leaf="">放量</span></strong><span leaf="">:上证成交额能不能放回万亿以上、站稳</span><strong data-page-node-id="rWuRFKuLTx1hEVliAAKUAG" data-dm-ref="162"><span data-page-node-id="5FUpKzc4hkygjgXXmr9Ckt" data-dm-ref="163" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">3990</span></span></strong><span leaf="">箱体上沿。放量=修复转主升,缩量=单日情绪退潮。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="2KcAvnUeDWJD86Ow8IugyE" data-dm-ref="164" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 18px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="LcNjUu8V8YOu7LYHdkDZDR" data-dm-ref="165"><span data-page-node-id="jawcgBkIFVeEwLs1gq0bxB" data-dm-ref="166" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">02</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="wMJlon6NEFA8OQtqkFI0Zt" data-dm-ref="167"><span leaf="">美债</span></strong><span leaf="">:10年期收益率破不破</span><strong data-page-node-id="CG48E93B8GxqleJMFQ0t0o" data-dm-ref="168"><span data-page-node-id="CfxKgo1cu2myQfuBRrFMMt" data-dm-ref="169" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">5%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。破5%是AI泡沫的硬触发,不破则外部风险暂时解除。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="Lv4I3eC8jm6XJN6ShgEwdt" data-dm-ref="170" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 18px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="EaqQ2p4EXB9Fxd27EvQNKx" data-dm-ref="171"><span data-page-node-id="Ej2Fi99tqBmrrs8ySjJZz4" data-dm-ref="172" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">03</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="awiCfzmXmuk2thvcO0m621" data-dm-ref="173"><span leaf="">钱出不出硬件圈</span></strong><span leaf="">:AI应用/软件能不能由流出转流入。转流入=利润重分配启动,继续流出=旧叙事还能续。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="jI4v2x2qqP3FrXT4FwSor4" data-dm-ref="174" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 18px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="Wmrk4uciXHnWADwbHkIJvE" data-dm-ref="175"><span data-page-node-id="FUE7dfh4ZBwzSVqkBGoM7K" data-dm-ref="176" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">04</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="67zI2xofnA6eZEDJ7J8AG0" data-dm-ref="177"><span leaf="">中X旭创/新X盛的放量确认</span></strong><span leaf="">:60日负的票今天反抽,明天是放量收复还是冲高回落。冲高回落=反抽结束。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="5bOmAePAeaH7VcvaTcBWj5" data-dm-ref="178" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="FNHUZ6wJo1q8zqA4wR453y" data-dm-ref="179"><span data-page-node-id="1CratPx3VbUhO1wF5qyCVN" data-dm-ref="180" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">05</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="B26m7fj9ZUnFSixIHE3CHj" data-dm-ref="181"><span leaf="">景X电子的承接</span></strong><span leaf="">:这票今天炸板</span><strong data-page-node-id="NMccFwRF2kMUbItro3GzhA" data-dm-ref="182"><span data-page-node-id="7EQ7JbwafW9yyPZX2MtLIA" data-dm-ref="183" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">6次</span></span></strong><span leaf="">才封住,分歧极大。封住是强,明天高开承接才是真强,低开低走=情绪松动。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="yGny8zwPtLfdD4VExuuHwW" data-dm-ref="184" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(253, 243, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(212, 53, 28);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="EaSv2JAcaEe7bOCI7F7VXz" data-dm-ref="185" style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="reaQFGSCxuJuNkwFYEgy9U" data-dm-ref="186"><span data-page-node-id="q790dHKVKB0B1FOWsnUZ8v" data-dm-ref="187" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">正面修正</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 明天放量站上3990,且AI应用/软件资金回流、硬件不再是唯一主线,说明拥挤开始化解,可以加仓。</span></p></section><section data-page-node-id="A6zGSprU1grKAEUacfuCt9" data-dm-ref="188" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(241, 248, 244);border-left: 4px solid rgb(0, 160, 80);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="mj7QFZ35k3iBnXebO3aSER" data-dm-ref="189" style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="1CKXUGHaEVHjHfXL8fOokd" data-dm-ref="190"><span data-page-node-id="9KrAKGDMr5SHaHyXcvIzAq" data-dm-ref="191" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">反面修正</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 美债10年期破5%,或者硬件缩量冲高回落、景X电子这类优级股低开,说明拥挤开始坍塌,严格执行5%止损,把仓位降到空仓级别,别接飞刀。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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