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9月8日AI复盘

发布于 2026-09-08

<section data-page-node-id="Uer5awcFMjik3KudKg448R" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(251, 247, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);border-radius: 4px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><p data-page-node-id="xqLwjBVKr2O8AbxWQAPpqy" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">仅作AI复盘分享, 不构成投资建议!</span></span></p><p data-page-node-id="xqLwjBVKr2O8AbxWQAPpqy" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">上证&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="ipZe9CNJq43dkr6pX3bW9U"><span data-page-node-id="mExxMdd4PZDPLK5TOqr2cg" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">3940.55</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;只涨&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="xkBGN2FBiI8DjpS4U4dEFG"><span data-page-node-id="JN9nHTxXgZfTPfJRujaRq2" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">0.20%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,深成指跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="yDmuaqxCogUmTILbHKomO1"><span data-page-node-id="SkSjaByjzsVSFSFl9BR6NO" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">0.52%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,创业板跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="HER5fPU9rGeGoMSr4qwTxs"><span data-page-node-id="xtovuvXdkiePxvOH6uWfAb" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">1.15%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。指数不共振,但钱的方向一点不含糊——黄金概念主力净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="pmIlG4CzfW9HrWCZ3iVMYC"><span data-page-node-id="0QJx7mNnzvEMRx7zm9ekI0" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">38亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,稀缺资源&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="yYC2anTs6akvUTYkcEpaE6"><span data-page-node-id="G2WhzomI3dGD7NpVPcadar" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">37.7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,小金属&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="D1CauvKRuFATpUDrSxcqFu"><span data-page-node-id="h0ysED6scGUmwdFteJbaxV" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">35.8亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,磷化工&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="w1wbwaojTmZnNw6xDgIR42"><span data-page-node-id="lZAx3T0JssCWMNMhZEf9a4" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">31.9亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">;另一头华为概念流出&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="gGyE65QchaLAHsdJG9SOIU"><span data-page-node-id="cVE6gERZLfciBWQUrPFGMr" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">110.8亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,人工智能&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="lOdw54Es9sy7lHMI62YCw0"><span data-page-node-id="5wMjyVEhATTteSECVdiaRj" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">90亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,科技风格&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="4VjL08ibaTceuDOSZHuwxc"><span data-page-node-id="hNfXTgCcEJSH8hahPcpgud" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">93亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这不是普涨,是结构市里一次单边搬家,从算力科技搬向实物资源。能做,但只能做搬进去的那一侧,还得控仓。</span></p></section><p data-page-node-id="3MVmIyPlgp1R19JUlXv4Jr" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p><p data-page-node-id="dXbC2FxLwG9mXrXTkpYHUB" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="MmIo4uDuXfUrAsD30QbOuh"><span data-page-node-id="1F7n30AHayB6OeT5bnTzys" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">01</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 枢纽在资源化工,断裂点在科技</span></p><p data-page-node-id="X3zt5kVfwWikkF3eeAztuE" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">今天的钱只认一样东西,实物涨价链。黄金概念净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="eMVK8NRYQ2DrV4SoPx3CGF"><span data-page-node-id="DGhPzkviEUIDjgyFvukMed" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">38亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;排第一,稀缺资源&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="wH5NwN4pB2OnI3fHza9sEr"><span data-page-node-id="Wx0i6djtuL2Ttaa2gxuwco" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">37.7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、小金属&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="KbZaWCOZrQImdQ2FXKawx5"><span data-page-node-id="UdezfZf113dJ0RUOMg3Cmf" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">35.8亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、化工原料&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="jyuO3iJcOkdU8NDRvzoLmY"><span data-page-node-id="AcNnzOZz4twUsaSKcPcPjh" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">33亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、磷化工&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="1X73Hki1HuW22htfrZiOuI"><span data-page-node-id="scMm6qeDD49KIrUbbzlyru" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">31.9亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、煤化工&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="XGHWmMmjhyQ43rm367y3k3"><span data-page-node-id="de3WVUSDBdv4ePMzS36i3N" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">26.5亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、天然气&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Y8feWpht6Y3DJ5QrRVd9hf"><span data-page-node-id="wM0Oc5v0LjLbQGZQhSsHcq" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">22.7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、油气资源&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="F5uuSIyKa4UeSjkBDAQHR4"><span data-page-node-id="eEi9Ona37H1zgG3s36rHk3" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">19.7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,全是地缘和涨价的受益方。它们的对手盘很清楚,华为概念&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="NyKh4SkegRdSyCRb348OGj"><span data-page-node-id="ER3a8K46DGkuFaKeACl3KC" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-110.8亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、科技风格&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="UwFTL9GExxM39hhBkaygZo"><span data-page-node-id="AqZQ2KC4t0gg3K2sTk8ex9" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-93亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、人工智能&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="L6fSBbM0YwYZ5JviCQbFgk"><span data-page-node-id="HiZ5PX6w308vA74CZfRUn7" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-90亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、新能源车&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="wHAw9nBgyYnVPCsqGcHT6Y"><span data-page-node-id="RiStwvI0Jc5eyrn86XPldT" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-91.8亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、液冷服务器&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="IxPi5xXrNCSmbKXV0JkCoQ"><span data-page-node-id="qxhzmQSTIiFIDFiCru8108" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-84.5亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、数据中心&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="JP8GAqj7gn7WEQEhs8bQX6"><span data-page-node-id="D4v9RfgKVJ4F991YVsrxrD" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-70亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。资金不是从A轮到B,是从一整个大类搬到另一整个大类。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="Bu4GlG0tKyrLa7isFSF49e" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="1MMFS4hcH4YE9GtIbiB0iG"><span data-page-node-id="bvcjkbPIcmkYVHasSG0pMs" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">02</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 这是真切换,但要明天验证是不是假承接</span></p><p data-page-node-id="RVxXeVDGP7EkCA3H6HWV3A" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">资源化工今天的净流入是实打实的,黄金&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="BqZhrL5jhGpAEx5R36aIfQ"><span data-page-node-id="k2h466LoSyhaNgBx62DMsV" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">38亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、稀缺资源&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="mG522VUx6OkRrSFu3BKk5G"><span data-page-node-id="b1KlHxkRVLBPcnWzuNgiTH" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">37.7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;这种体量不是脉冲能造出来的。但要分清一件事:资金搬进资源,是因为资源本身变强,还是因为科技那边在杀跌、资金无处可去。这两者是不同的事,前者能续,后者是过路钱,科技一旦反抽,过路钱就走。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="CrTxJgSBAJKDShZQUqpHEA" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="rUh16e1enJrANWDs42Hy2D"><span data-page-node-id="7akdJo5xLK8YeLFramLaGu" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">03</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 医药没有“最强共振”,只有CRO在动</span></p><p data-page-node-id="cXmZSdXdUUopJDGH1fakF1" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">医药里真正在动的只有CRO,净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="xDnZc1oFMgQIsaazYR8Mhs"><span data-page-node-id="e4Uf9foxNsabNmWk6dJo75" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">20.5亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,排进全市场前十。而重组蛋白净流入只有&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="9IHrqjyAw5O1teuvdpQSi9"><span data-page-node-id="I8Botwp1oLVBsYdcVwa8At" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7.56亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、合成生物&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="uMkU1spYebAArfp87yeX0o"><span data-page-node-id="BUC4HKf0aEYk94o00s3c8c" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7.45亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、病毒防治&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="NTVyeudDAN5emPjUdyA3zu"><span data-page-node-id="0DoKz1gaW8ef2a6Ctxo2qV" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7.27亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,这些在概念板块里是垫底的量级,不是共振,是跟着喝汤。要买医药,只认CRO这一条,别把重组蛋白、合成生物当主线。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="4wG4kNkuvDimz5zQrSM1TM" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="dekpGVR17e3ipFOjGJNnxP"><span data-page-node-id="owYq2qhlHMtW8y71fWO6OS" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">04</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 地缘这条线还在加码,但没被A股完全定价</span></p><p data-page-node-id="jVw3dICEbq9Hu0c1pQMQPe" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">布伦特逼近&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="VIxiDk2sJUtodF2JFEbXj0"><span data-page-node-id="oGVPAvE7Jcq6ucS2C7DQ7w" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">100美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,沙特能源设施遭袭击,伦铜刷历史新高,津巴布韦封死锑和钨的出口。这几件事今天已经反映在油气、金属、有色板块上,但油价破100之后的二次传导——化工成本抬升、通胀预期、美联储转鹰——A股还没定价。这是今天盘面漏掉的一块,也是资源行情能不能从一日游变成一段趋势的关键变量。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="DMOYDYEtfjKIA4DEy80ZaR" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;height: 1px;background-color: rgb(236, 231, 222);margin: 0px 0px 22px;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></section><p data-page-node-id="p1BxiTZJ4PE0nV3b9xcm8s" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p><p data-page-node-id="BZDtThRQ3QYzZJJoVukbIl" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="SVGTzb84Y5RAcmDwwyF718"><span data-page-node-id="pFmGC1NnFuDUSGpKcq7Cl0" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">01</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 指数不共振,普涨被证伪</span></p><p data-page-node-id="Of3ryX6bao42uGdBhSmqJB" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">上证站上MA20收&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="vbtX8cRaYtCBZ71rKbdXI2"><span data-page-node-id="apAsSD6M8hcdZomknQpjSH" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">3940.55</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,勉强红盘,但深成指跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="fTMgWEpvXEltjupgBatg7n"><span data-page-node-id="3Cj8dig19s0vfPXt35Yo0m" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">0.52%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、创业板跌&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="LoA48TYt4xFYSJXQXqA4kj"><span data-page-node-id="60wOVCncbJnoNZumGWX9Vp" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">1.15%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,成长股在杀。指数层面已经告诉你这不是普涨,是权重搭台、题材唱戏的结构市。做多只能贴主线,撒网必挨打。上证还卡在&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="wt0vdanceFBF5puZP18o9y"><span data-page-node-id="KLFuis7H3CXXJr9uKvg6F1" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">3870—3990</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;的箱体里,两次冲3990没过去,箱体上沿的压力是实打实的。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="nqJXG6Krqw85HTHquGzzYW" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="zIxN85xB1rd5T0Y2n0eyJD"><span data-page-node-id="9LdDFldMKLCmUjsj5yxxwg" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">02</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 涨停73家、炸板37家,情绪不亢奋但也没退潮</span></p><p data-page-node-id="zLUK2yu6yjmBcLEIlqmChf" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">涨停&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="Fts6z4DtR5dPCZIX6EvtTa"><span data-page-node-id="QX98tgVY8TseACzzvtVS9d" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">73家</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、炸板&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="WBB5Zd0vrl5hNk5vKRJKTi"><span data-page-node-id="cuf6jfUP1NIVjXSRIpFhfB" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">37家</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、炸板率&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="HPCpHY6gImnCPeedkiLJKG"><span data-page-node-id="O7pA31UmOvBx9Pcq43YWU2" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">33.6%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、连板率&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="By28MFM8r4YJvS8M3xp0nZ"><span data-page-node-id="NcjSAORTjvgjiwH2CJVLaC" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">26%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、最高&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="6jAIlEs8MxTBt4CmSbqaFb"><span data-page-node-id="P9eoDrN18MU9lX4VLA7M7i" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">6板</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。炸板率三成出头,说明追高的人有一小半当天就被埋,但还没到炸板多于涨停的退潮前夜。这个位置是结构性强势里带着分歧,不是无脑打板的环境,是低吸主线的环境。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="PD0NrgLtcz3HF72kBi78Ph" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="bKfuBGluoiyGZFne3XVGIj"><span data-page-node-id="EW8XpktFrMBEUR90gUoMAY" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">03</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 资金方向是这一天最硬的信号</span></p><p data-page-node-id="LIbbtO5hxenqSXqllEOFuF" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">黄金&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="nowbx048JyT87lDY8Z8G1W"><span data-page-node-id="q1b9UQFWLAJ4loEIBEC5WN" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">38亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、稀缺资源&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="vX6L5a2Sh6ZWECcG8LAMyY"><span data-page-node-id="3fMVEaux1KPVN1nrFwfNAV" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">37.7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、小金属&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="6QaDLEmVikzuEUFFEfMyA5"><span data-page-node-id="cWGyNuwW3wtNRvypmKpdeF" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">35.8亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、化工原料&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="zC254EI7rhEVyL0uaRYHZD"><span data-page-node-id="8PIdKvOhugEs0cGgYak3mF" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">33亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、磷化工&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="xG7Teh1OrfxeXGMB0GN3h1"><span data-page-node-id="zJAwRJm8y8UQdPISgbzz29" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">31.9亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;净流入,对上华为概念&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="F83qMQtTQlHIMv8QUverSR"><span data-page-node-id="Ais67xmWUGpOKOtSkRGk52" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">110.8亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、人工智能&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="r3ToFMXxZHIRnYjMQZcJKu"><span data-page-node-id="xig8Cw9nn90zWU0KY3lUyG" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">90亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、科技风格&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="5IBEdxwUDbCn0i5PBbNW9o"><span data-page-node-id="i21vbiHl4sWFBxH04n9EjH" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">93亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;净流出。这个剪刀差不是行业轮动,是资金对两条路线的投票:实物涨价对金融叙事。要跟就跟净流入的那一侧,别去接科技那边飞下来的刀。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="tibwWU3kVB9jRVtgS7815r" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="7p01P3rsG9yZoHLdLNdpFW"><span data-page-node-id="yYGFSmaav9cdG84BYt9Rc1" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">04</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 资源涨价的物理基础在,不在故事里</span></p><p data-page-node-id="LZ5zvD4lG23mALF5JSWzfh" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">津巴布韦封锑钨出口、伦铜历史新高、布伦特逼近&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="GAqhjlXzmylDVcNzEOViR8"><span data-page-node-id="RCtinGaC3whzvbhpU60MkU" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">100美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、沙特设施遇袭,这几件事都是物理世界的断供和涨价,不是券商写出来的叙事。资源国正在用限制出口和本土加工拿回定价权,这个趋势的存续期以年计,不是今天一天的题材。但也正因为它太真实,涨得快的部分已经price in,追高的性价比在下降。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="XT4bD08yywO5QLgkqjsPcL" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="qZNP1d2rBPrfHaUFSG8Qx8"><span data-page-node-id="b9zctyiIbIdPOHJyOglFNh" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">05</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 医药只有CRO是钱,白酒只有提价没有需求</span></p><p data-page-node-id="E31HXty7EnTGyzHD2R5abB" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">医药内部在分化,CRO净流入&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="c5Tnr1zejBk3IAfcBDnbd6"><span data-page-node-id="WeMZXAso6AmHXFdhoBcD5r" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">20.5亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;是真金白银,重组蛋白、合成生物那点&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="pJeo9Mg7F44mNnlJB3t0CE"><span data-page-node-id="b04Zd0uhzyQlFW0yvxqzpS" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;上下的流入撑不起主线。白酒那边,飞天线下提价到&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="vKQPUdV8zYf5MyYAjF2j7k"><span data-page-node-id="XBQyAEzY7Ekce3KOI1SaaC" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1766元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,但提价是不是需求好,要看动销、看渠道价差,光一个提价数字说明不了什么。消费里现在没有资金共识,别把提价当成消费复苏的信号。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="vx8T0XVwDpg2ToYDLxgyNJ" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="Cl8CapZyacnQrlA2VDUdCE"><span data-page-node-id="6DJtSWHmhbpb17tB3Y3VOs" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">06</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 仓位是这一天的纪律,不是可选项</span></p><p data-page-node-id="sCo5ky9PBPjOtyBEHRzJAj" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">指数不共振、科技在失血、资源已经涨了一波,这个位置满仓冲资源是赌,空仓看戏又浪费了明确的主线。正确姿势是&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="5gi4U64L7uTIfE0dPfyOiF"><span data-page-node-id="bMjZR7xYqUm2mFl8SHxR77" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">四成到五成仓</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,聚焦资源化工和CRO,留子弹应对指数二次回踩。资源涨价的逻辑在,但涨得急的地方要等回踩,别在涨停板上追。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="AsvpVvdV0TLPVD9VWEgp8q" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;height: 1px;background-color: rgb(236, 231, 222);margin: 0px 0px 22px;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></section><p data-page-node-id="M0TPjqA2M0IkpGAlJa2CqV" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></p><p data-page-node-id="UiCb8xjOhQG7Cz15SG4CUu" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="BhVreFJlvIrH3KfPqn9Jry"><span data-page-node-id="VMn4VAAQ4JlbGBlN9Qno4G" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">1.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="5amEYbmPJRaVCBpimV9qGx"><span leaf="">资源能不能续。</span></strong><span leaf="">黄金、磷化工、稀缺资源明天是继续净流入,还是资金一日游回流科技。继续流入等于主线确认,转负等于今天只是过路钱。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="1mtrUFfv1QtqLtc01ntuEH" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="mL8Fod99WMWlPInylRQGzR"><span data-page-node-id="F4NxKW7wh6EAyf44gty6rd" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">2.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="HmgSiefFSX7G0Cw3yVo5f3"><span leaf="">科技失血会不会加速。</span></strong><span leaf="">华为概念、人工智能明天的净流出是收窄还是扩大。收窄说明杀跌接近尾声,扩大说明切换还没结束。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="7pcuuLXUFUC2PcoCauTFtP" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="xTqY7nPdSTMusGBZpCnMR3"><span data-page-node-id="9VseK4aQBv65vURQGwG64i" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="LTwD8DAR43NgwsyeJFyF5D"><span leaf="">布伦特破不破100。</span></strong><span leaf="">破100是化工成本和通胀预期的硬触发,也是资源行情从一日游变趋势的分水岭。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="cy4jj7zEiYgJ1Mtvw3E1AW" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 14px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="Q0eUR1g9f4Ms8eGAoqMNv0"><span data-page-node-id="laRE1KsM6DdoBw14D6hV6h" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">4.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="69bxsmSblETFVEreMEw34s"><span leaf="">上证守不守得住3940。</span></strong><span leaf="">站稳MA20且不破&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="IfcAPs5z4cdl8qu9fBpVIL"><span data-page-node-id="2Vg7cc4HS6kAdlJNnBSaL2" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">3880</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,结构市还能做;破3880,水温降级,禁止开新仓。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="1N3SWqOciqX5dv4SmFLNsX" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><strong data-page-node-id="PxIL6iphRJV2esDi6y9qUJ"><span data-page-node-id="Ki0yPFAxGDZegutiboOXMy" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">5.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="2ZPdIUXjtTtsLKYYkvydvG"><span leaf="">炸板率走不走上50。</span></strong><span leaf="">今天&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="E8DwH7ttuG62cG9jO0bJpQ"><span data-page-node-id="YB63d32ZE2v2gii5OevZqI" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">33.6%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,明天如果升到&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="8HS41agQ9BdLBAjIof1R6W"><span data-page-node-id="U4Piy23Lelfu4FqAiyFOLe" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">50%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;以上,说明追高亏钱效应放大,追涨策略直接作废,只能低吸。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="UC9N3WWjof6KQUz1bAdpBk" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(251, 247, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="2qcqEvg09os5AoBIX8bngE" style="margin: 0px 0px 10px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><p data-page-node-id="rRn2aR07o4Kf7CFXq5VpOD" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="dlUawHKSxGMRPdx4jaqnzm"><span data-page-node-id="TNi3YCBkvWIDLiYu3gBjEU" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">正面:</span></span></strong><span leaf="">明天资源化工继续净流入、布伦特破100、上证站稳3940,说明资源主线成立,可以贴着黄金、磷化工、油气、CRO这条线做多,仓位保持在&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="oagFH9B3xvAsNeIOKsghxS"><span data-page-node-id="VtGypEES5qAgVPHtubnIUa" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">四到五成</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="STKxSoeCtg5sIyNLN6lVXY" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="5t3Bty18HOSYrkHli7w002"><span data-page-node-id="pqk1Zi09Uj4uXdtqPAo4eZ" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">反面:</span></span></strong><span leaf="">资源板块明天净流入转负、科技反抽、上证跌破&nbsp;</span><strong data-page-node-id="UZZyyh7J6QbtV7o0OS8gAf"><span data-page-node-id="xwtGzL3vb7txReXANnp6Ai" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">3880</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,说明今天的切换只是资金避险的过路钱,不是真趋势,这时候该减仓观望,别把避险当主线做。</span></p></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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