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9月9日AI复盘

发布于 2026-09-09

<section><span leaf="">仅作AI复盘分享,不构成投资建议!</span></section><section data-page-node-id="i5txn6Uy7rNdECUMN3voPM" data-dm-ref="6" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(251, 247, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);border-radius: 4px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><p data-page-node-id="DYKEKxk2APYH6QzRYKW3TG" data-dm-ref="7" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">5G和光通信吞掉</span><strong data-page-node-id="psLIVLhjI8V1BOxcE8vHQ4" data-dm-ref="8"><span data-page-node-id="szOanaDF55WNOuYmfFjMna" data-dm-ref="9" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">249亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">净流入的同时,AI应用流出</span><strong data-page-node-id="Q9TuixwEdxWgAX4Kc2O6N9" data-dm-ref="10"><span data-page-node-id="5hw28gKSBMiFVUJS6v7nTa" data-dm-ref="11" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">106亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">——这不是风格切换,是存量资金在同一赛道内部做硬逻辑的暴力换仓。布油破百和铜价新高给实物资产上了保险,但市场没有增量,只有两种命运的分流。</span></p></section><p data-page-node-id="GfM63aQFDzODgheiftrMfq" data-dm-ref="12" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">市场结构</span></p><p data-page-node-id="WByfJ30yWudqM6ObygWByR" data-dm-ref="13" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="EqXdoqwldtS96Wof0p2IPq" data-dm-ref="14"><span data-page-node-id="clHaHQCuDuKdCz8TApBMrx" data-dm-ref="15" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">01</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 枢纽判断</span></p><p data-page-node-id="R1CJXESFMgUMgxlFSV0UXu" data-dm-ref="16" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">5G概念(</span><strong data-page-node-id="5SMeibnL7qkyNONt2SZNbc" data-dm-ref="17"><span data-page-node-id="rqMtIgkL5wBp16br5WZ2MR" data-dm-ref="18" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+126亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)和通信技术(</span><strong data-page-node-id="WJNGMMcyN9iOr2SzXY4wYt" data-dm-ref="19"><span data-page-node-id="OCR8BVomBuaq3omI2MgzKg" data-dm-ref="20" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+123亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)是今日市场唯一的资金枢纽,两个板块合计吸纳</span><strong data-page-node-id="AAaPd9U11nDaJPkmbCQefT" data-dm-ref="21"><span data-page-node-id="y6uFfeBbQy7ZV4UxOoz4y2" data-dm-ref="22" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">249亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">主力净流入,而人工智能(</span><strong data-page-node-id="uC45ck7IBBPKaj2jVqDNRB" data-dm-ref="23"><span data-page-node-id="JkLdZusVoGtEpNlHeLjWEg" data-dm-ref="24" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-106亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)和AI应用(</span><strong data-page-node-id="a2dbP7aBFnMIsWcLtJ7xjh" data-dm-ref="25"><span data-page-node-id="axvGVbNosWEyHCfzibM1VI" data-dm-ref="26" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-75亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)同时崩塌。这两个板块之间的资金关系不是轮动,是直接置换——从AI应用流出的资金,当天就进了5G/光通信。这是一个非常罕见的"同日反向映射",说明资金对AI叙事的怀疑不是犹豫,是已经做出了方向性选择。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="EhLfl48X4EpxWYXW9oj3pN" data-dm-ref="27" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="EAsWE8oPijWiNQNQQqlTmb" data-dm-ref="28"><span data-page-node-id="jQRaEpwBKN9nU4vGRtREKK" data-dm-ref="29" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">02</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 轮动判断</span></p><p data-page-node-id="tjykNQ0I7dKcR2iAWKJCB2" data-dm-ref="30" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">资金从AI应用→5G/光通信的路径非常清晰,但这不是健康的板块轮动。真正的轮动需要增量资金承接,今天的</span><strong data-page-node-id="5HFFHqLlVbCDUB9EGBtGFz" data-dm-ref="31"><span data-page-node-id="KFJZS52dyKsHdEc5Cgw3GC" data-dm-ref="32" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">1.86万亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">成交量比昨日缩量超</span><strong data-page-node-id="uWhNBm9DBA2XdoiB3sehcK" data-dm-ref="33"><span data-page-node-id="CZJPHXTYuCwk6SqfTWCcVr" data-dm-ref="34" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">1000亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,说明没有增量进场,只是存量在AI内部换位置。光通信模块(</span><strong data-page-node-id="BuNeMwhA9yhKHMU3ih2NKH" data-dm-ref="35"><span data-page-node-id="hjCk3J4P6PprIeYDT9fx3a" data-dm-ref="36" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+87亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、CPO概念(</span><strong data-page-node-id="412iQpfhFgwSdfdyV1Ov50" data-dm-ref="37"><span data-page-node-id="yBPasqHlUb8ggTFqqYFFSe" data-dm-ref="38" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+80亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、PCB(</span><strong data-page-node-id="l9HhoV26X6xboCfJxKkAe0" data-dm-ref="39"><span data-page-node-id="jICIG1Xo934tVHYCYWyp5C" data-dm-ref="40" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+98亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、铜缆高速连接(</span><strong data-page-node-id="esTb1WGYS0Aj2mOFSwlhPk" data-dm-ref="41"><span data-page-node-id="TUFVQfWqpd6pAiuFTTx4Wy" data-dm-ref="42" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+54亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)形成完整产业链共振,说明这不是个别股票的资金驱动,是对"AI物理瓶颈"叙事的全产业链定价。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="PSpFJs0moLg3EVmgUL1Gun" data-dm-ref="43" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="ZFNZpWOljaCGhIuIiRJAgN" data-dm-ref="44"><span data-page-node-id="17A2xmFalXyf5vQecDDCxk" data-dm-ref="45" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">03</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 北向/外资判断</span></p><p data-page-node-id="GknjeJE7tgeifm1CUhluWb" data-dm-ref="46" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">北向资金累计净买入规模从8月初的约</span><strong data-page-node-id="wAukGZ1VC49oqjPOtpMRjV" data-dm-ref="47"><span data-page-node-id="KcvgFCDUFehCYEdcCPzbrO" data-dm-ref="48" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">2977亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">降至9月8日的约</span><strong data-page-node-id="gszPpjFw1dbC4zo61YJ4FH" data-dm-ref="49"><span data-page-node-id="eauBnmi9B9icML3MFEI4RQ" data-dm-ref="50" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">2660亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,一个多月净流出约</span><strong data-page-node-id="3snVW7twQFU0Q6Jv81vKxk" data-dm-ref="51"><span data-page-node-id="PGonrGKzzF1Bp9WcxXZtPK" data-dm-ref="52" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">317亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这个数字来自原文,需要明日用东财港资通接口交叉验证。但方向明确:外资在撤退。在外资撤退的背景下,内资扎堆光通信,相当于用存量资金撑出一个局部牛市,这个格局的持续性取决于内资能否独自维持。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="UFUGEbII9EtFtW4Hh1yyW4" data-dm-ref="53" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="YPkBqKA11OuCWSKaEIuzkl" data-dm-ref="54"><span data-page-node-id="kiqZDKyjbrGG3XDyzBidEk" data-dm-ref="55" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">04</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 未被定价的信号</span></p><p data-page-node-id="Tz0yqccY1Wct9NFXpWylaT" data-dm-ref="56" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">煤炭和航运板块有明确的涨停个股(云煤能源、郑州煤电、大有能源、招商轮船),但在概念板块净流入排序中完全看不到踪影。这说明煤炭/航运的资金是集中在一两只个股上的结构性脉冲,而不是板块级别的共识。如果明日能源板块不能扩散到更多标的,今天煤炭涨停只是情绪噪音,不是趋势起点。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="O7ksgcifTgX49Bo5yGphk2" data-dm-ref="57" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;height: 1px;background-color: rgb(236, 231, 222);margin: 0px 0px 22px;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></section><p data-page-node-id="OlPUugUtUeUidtVocIvRTi" data-dm-ref="58" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">关键信号</span></p><p data-page-node-id="n6GnVbBaBTS9Y1c4v2ZwnR" data-dm-ref="59" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="wJObY4gd9chfqQH8aAJX1i" data-dm-ref="60"><span data-page-node-id="tdxWNKxDbPHblaPTkTlNFa" data-dm-ref="61" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">01</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 布油破百不是通胀数字,是成本冲击波的起点</span></p><p data-page-node-id="DfLTdCaxecoGkdLxVqCroF" data-dm-ref="62" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">布伦特原油自7月24日以来首次突破</span><strong data-page-node-id="LA4EiAFyCIIY6qDZB6KfSi" data-dm-ref="63"><span data-page-node-id="qH3sIAitJDnYBrDoedak0p" data-dm-ref="64" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">100美元/桶</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,日内涨超</span><strong data-page-node-id="JqCLOJORljDjky4h4MpP1X" data-dm-ref="65"><span data-page-node-id="dVHS32A5zHnaDEaOg0Svg7" data-dm-ref="66" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">2%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,WTI报</span><strong data-page-node-id="SHr1dh582QG3URrwDm4l55" data-dm-ref="67"><span data-page-node-id="0lcil4Ia4Bm0oTJ1oGHqwb" data-dm-ref="68" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">94.73美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。铜价同时创下历史新高,LME铜破</span><strong data-page-node-id="4b5RQRjo2bwMjnk1EjUmie" data-dm-ref="69"><span data-page-node-id="sVfNYKnm5PKo5kvi6jKRkg" data-dm-ref="70" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">1.47万美元</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,超百万吨铜被"关税套利"吸向美国。这两个数字同时出现的历史区间,从来没有对应过经济繁荣。中国8月CPI同比</span><strong data-page-node-id="YqlF6IGnA27HbRXOGQ2geJ" data-dm-ref="71"><span data-page-node-id="9kj3foX7OTKoiZumlQlYOY" data-dm-ref="72" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">0.8%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、环比转正</span><strong data-page-node-id="7BZvtfV8SLYI2RdQTGkZjE" data-dm-ref="73"><span data-page-node-id="Qsv7zfxVC2rhd2QxJKMimp" data-dm-ref="74" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+0.4%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,汽油价格环比</span><strong data-page-node-id="BZ8i4DODTMkZiS6yLbKxGU" data-dm-ref="75"><span data-page-node-id="CZTKD05NUn9crgjDXSLc5K" data-dm-ref="76" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+7.2%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,输入性通胀正在落地。PPI同比</span><strong data-page-node-id="8VRyVU5K7r50nUvmKTbtdL" data-dm-ref="77"><span data-page-node-id="HctNCVGwXTJiu4JqQMRjTW" data-dm-ref="78" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">3.8%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,油价反弹+AI高景气+基数效应三重推动。这不是周期上行,是能源实物控制权争夺在价格上的投影。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="VZfo3BoO7v3Gu5Fu22bMCO" data-dm-ref="79" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="FaDof0skFWbN1bi58ks8MQ" data-dm-ref="80"><span data-page-node-id="KQI1FuLfWN44bIJUBPgIXJ" data-dm-ref="81" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">02</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 5G概念净流入126亿,AI基础设施重估是今日唯一主线</span></p><p data-page-node-id="n6R0AU4FDI2wmmkIh3Xp4s" data-dm-ref="82" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">5G概念(</span><strong data-page-node-id="VoUAtCf3NTvIjt8Z8A2DAj" data-dm-ref="83"><span data-page-node-id="CtcsCjEX8qF7UTcsikTc8S" data-dm-ref="84" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+126亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、通信技术(</span><strong data-page-node-id="V8orexq1jVubKjCCvSPN4p" data-dm-ref="85"><span data-page-node-id="xLrxlp7SDNfUQNTaOxPdbq" data-dm-ref="86" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+123亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、PCB(</span><strong data-page-node-id="eVXzpHNnNpvhkGxh1764EI" data-dm-ref="87"><span data-page-node-id="La8pV1x7gBzzpGIfbmc3Sa" data-dm-ref="88" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+98亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、光通信模块(</span><strong data-page-node-id="YGZCFnA7c2NNhDCy6bArQt" data-dm-ref="89"><span data-page-node-id="zJyF9rIuDl2PRlFoEWIjrW" data-dm-ref="90" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+87亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、CPO概念(</span><strong data-page-node-id="hGNAHNGuS442Ppoe7AL2RP" data-dm-ref="91"><span data-page-node-id="YpnB0t7qbzrWY56tiPOVzj" data-dm-ref="92" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+80亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)——这五个板块全部进入净流入TOP15,合计超</span><strong data-page-node-id="mj4bu3YqUG0Z1FM1ATTAsI" data-dm-ref="93"><span data-page-node-id="vitG9KCfj4coqttEwtr96V" data-dm-ref="94" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">500亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这不是风格轮动,是对AI物理瓶颈叙事的集中定价。大摩把</span><strong data-page-node-id="Pq8CXL6e79C8yFuFhAK7hj" data-dm-ref="95"><span data-page-node-id="PPn8etQm6bbidOceguYrGl" data-dm-ref="96" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">38吉瓦</span></span></strong><span leaf="">电力缺口列为AI第一物理瓶颈,花旗说光纤是下一个HBM,OpenAI因算力紧缺可能暂停新Pro订阅。上游材料、电力、光互联的叙事迁移已经从投行传导到二级市场,今天就是资金大规模确认这一迁移的时间点。与此对应,AI应用(</span><strong data-page-node-id="99WixH2c1DhVoGDYHH8FfA" data-dm-ref="97"><span data-page-node-id="sVVVEBoMiWCSjeH4me1ieL" data-dm-ref="98" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-75亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、人工智能(</span><strong data-page-node-id="gStLB97fXkrWecZrOSDl6H" data-dm-ref="99"><span data-page-node-id="UZvSQGGD4GWVEzdegeEbvs" data-dm-ref="100" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-106亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)同步崩塌,说明老资金正在撤离应用层,新资金正在涌入基础设施层,两股力量在5G/光通信交汇。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="L51Cya0Lin9A0JGJBTKfC3" data-dm-ref="101" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="HBbnhETrK9eB6twrwW97Qx" data-dm-ref="102"><span data-page-node-id="DXbqbDEcjMNlweF5PbRB79" data-dm-ref="103" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">03</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; AI应用净流出106亿,是叙事切换还是机构出逃</span></p><p data-page-node-id="D4nVOmreDklJLFv5uKmtME" data-dm-ref="104" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">人工智能概念板块今日主力净流出</span><strong data-page-node-id="dFLYXDGfmn8BnlPsBKRiV5" data-dm-ref="105"><span data-page-node-id="uPADtk0JC0l20QzyNftmV0" data-dm-ref="106" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">106.5亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,AI应用净流出</span><strong data-page-node-id="HRGXzaPC0GDltGNEGGWuhJ" data-dm-ref="107"><span data-page-node-id="pM8bcitWnC9unwWVyCnJXR" data-dm-ref="108" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">75.6亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,两者合计超</span><strong data-page-node-id="zJaQ9nm5wu5N2qlVs1QOW9" data-dm-ref="109"><span data-page-node-id="iAATnQkJ7QUtUhbgQmKEVx" data-dm-ref="110" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">180亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。与此同时,5G和通信技术净流入</span><strong data-page-node-id="BJEfKh8tdGsf8zg7JLqLba" data-dm-ref="111"><span data-page-node-id="jJ6h8hABjwg9quQDGsOpTt" data-dm-ref="112" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">249亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,方向完全相反。这不是正常的板块轮动——轮动是A弱B强但资金总量不变,今天的格局是A的资金直接变成B的资金,中间没有增量。结论很明确:机构在AI应用层退出,但退出后没有离开市场,而是换到了光通信。这个行为模式有两个含义:一是机构仍然看好AI,只是换了参与环节;二是如果没有增量资金,光通信的上涨持续性取决于撤离AI应用的资金是否足以维持,一旦撤离资金耗尽,光通信也会面临回调压力。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="nC9ThTURlourKc5EAKSU98" data-dm-ref="113" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="1lULhyd2alEwDD5DKWRC2m" data-dm-ref="114"><span data-page-node-id="Dz2i5e653ncMR2XpGx5yZx" data-dm-ref="115" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">04</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 北向资金一个多月净流出317亿,存量博弈的"水温计"</span></p><p data-page-node-id="sGl5PUjTdmgEip2X7Xlk3F" data-dm-ref="116" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">北向资金累计净买入规模从8月初约</span><strong data-page-node-id="gcvErStfC1FK50JRmkGtob" data-dm-ref="117"><span data-page-node-id="5HbwH6D9Uq3RkiGyzDHtcv" data-dm-ref="118" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">2977亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">降至9月8日约</span><strong data-page-node-id="2D0fdhoT9yv2LeCgVHYB1Q" data-dm-ref="119"><span data-page-node-id="9HDPR9W8rBjDBPDYPvNoPn" data-dm-ref="120" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">2660亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,一个月净流出约</span><strong data-page-node-id="1aH5T4sj1322ARIlD4jnvT" data-dm-ref="121"><span data-page-node-id="W2ENXh3x0KhzpzgzwbsfF4" data-dm-ref="122" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">317亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。这个数字来自原文,东财港资通今日接口返回净流动为0,需明日交叉验证。方向判断:外资在撤退。在外资撤退的存量格局下,内资独自撑起5G/光通信局部热点,本质是用存量资金做结构性集中,不是增量入场推动的系统性行情。结论:北向继续净流出,所有与外资重仓重合的方向都要回避;只有内资独立定价、外资持仓轻的方向(如光通信)才有超额收益空间。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="y0cwa8vh0fsfQYeRZA24gr" data-dm-ref="123" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="1aWsCV7sxvMnLLzBzxoC34" data-dm-ref="124"><span data-page-node-id="OLusKngK4lvWxzq9k3XUuy" data-dm-ref="125" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">05</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 涨停48家、炸板率36%,市场温度偏热但分歧已现</span></p><p data-page-node-id="AKshaNCJV7mWC2BaXfWCbn" data-dm-ref="126" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 22px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">今日涨停</span><strong data-page-node-id="6rkR0pBjdeFVPs6gCJNN6y" data-dm-ref="127"><span data-page-node-id="kd55YueNgMny6GqNlosFUr" data-dm-ref="128" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">48家</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,炸板</span><strong data-page-node-id="JoJvkO8pLXRDx3Fy5mvaY9" data-dm-ref="129"><span data-page-node-id="KAoxDVXZSzXzG3oLptwcXb" data-dm-ref="130" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">27家</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,炸板率</span><strong data-page-node-id="Lur8r9yAL5lTteNiPfvSsR" data-dm-ref="131"><span data-page-node-id="27bpuN4HvcpF5BD37EE9KC" data-dm-ref="132" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">36.0%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,连板</span><strong data-page-node-id="1oGMOQZwCKHQ1bEBC9ZC4h" data-dm-ref="133"><span data-page-node-id="JkBGMkH12LAuuDrjy8Zati" data-dm-ref="134" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">21家</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,连板率</span><strong data-page-node-id="4NH3KCIbJgUcMeVg6mZytc" data-dm-ref="135"><span data-page-node-id="vd1rGWGC4UooFOeHyDwycI" data-dm-ref="136" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">43.8%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。连板最高</span><strong data-page-node-id="p6W9rC3wAKDOz3hUNWTDAr" data-dm-ref="137"><span data-page-node-id="Kpgi2Z49TIUN1ZZKdCtyz7" data-dm-ref="138" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">7板</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,结构健康。炸板率36%低于警戒线(</span><strong data-page-node-id="BKp5LWTO0J55FmDlxjwySf" data-dm-ref="139"><span data-page-node-id="edygwudnA4DC2JtDhkyyMO" data-dm-ref="140" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">&gt;55%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">),说明封板意愿仍强,追高资金没有大面积亏钱。但炸板家数27家接近涨停家数48家的一半,说明分歧正在积累。关键观察:如果明日炸板率继续上升并突破</span><strong data-page-node-id="VGniqtbWkqIUNwlOFGXw8n" data-dm-ref="141"><span data-page-node-id="C6aCUiHMzEtHUFMhYi2acy" data-dm-ref="142" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">55%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,意味着退潮开始;如果炸板率回落至</span><strong data-page-node-id="kOU8NVCtIhl4XdA1kDDlYe" data-dm-ref="143"><span data-page-node-id="tAtoNxEAzePrJD0aCY3P90" data-dm-ref="144" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">25%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">以下,说明分歧被消化、接力意愿恢复。</span></p><p data-page-node-id="EfNeeHuFwIsfAxvDE4c7xE" data-dm-ref="145" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><strong data-page-node-id="Y3dIePwMqC95GNL0EfQg9K" data-dm-ref="146"><span data-page-node-id="VyOJwJpXqFFQCegB41eDZF" data-dm-ref="147" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">06</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 散户在接机构在跑,这是五个板块的集体行为</span></p><p data-page-node-id="yJQh9dJXFKBZ97Z6HsouY0" data-dm-ref="148" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 26px;line-height: 1.85;"><span leaf="">今日行业资金流向呈现出高度一致的"机构净流出+散户净流入"模式:医疗设备(机构</span><strong data-page-node-id="iHlYTurXgMBg4eMzkHn36E" data-dm-ref="149"><span data-page-node-id="IvmmTbAWnC3CSbto2o7w0D" data-dm-ref="150" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-3.75亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">/散户</span><strong data-page-node-id="XYi0pEB5lAYUtouXCLHXf9" data-dm-ref="151"><span data-page-node-id="IHej2GOeo0oV9kmlyjadjP" data-dm-ref="152" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.22亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、中药(</span><strong data-page-node-id="vMJCTGGKSn3QtET6CSuRx8" data-dm-ref="153"><span data-page-node-id="U2CoToqbjLNFtryqFuThOj" data-dm-ref="154" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-4.15亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">/</span><strong data-page-node-id="1DA3Jjg8GIj0KsV5qYCaPR" data-dm-ref="155"><span data-page-node-id="PBrgXTZrHILqLf2sAA3AHL" data-dm-ref="156" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+4.24亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、汽车(</span><strong data-page-node-id="wmNexrWHCa0tmivIzMFAGk" data-dm-ref="157"><span data-page-node-id="iAGVNRyEkdEm34z3WPYAN7" data-dm-ref="158" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-4.06亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">/</span><strong data-page-node-id="T2DETcGSnnnMtXy4Xv8l13" data-dm-ref="159"><span data-page-node-id="9AvKm1gG9sHTj3gfrqaqsn" data-dm-ref="160" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+9.0亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、种植业(</span><strong data-page-node-id="qIaw7bRKzlZEIR95xgOuK7" data-dm-ref="161"><span data-page-node-id="JAzHmx0YWTv8Jpjxb4XazT" data-dm-ref="162" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-4.17亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">/</span><strong data-page-node-id="rUb40wGyGmvMGRkNyUOV4B" data-dm-ref="163"><span data-page-node-id="iI7L3sSZu0U7FbHKgbtD3N" data-dm-ref="164" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+5.84亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、影视动漫(</span><strong data-page-node-id="f3Ff7l0ptMJcE4zCOFmkgE" data-dm-ref="165"><span data-page-node-id="HQfqXnzswnNEdMPZD1npZk" data-dm-ref="166" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">-3.93亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">/</span><strong data-page-node-id="POIOtDrq3FqfHFLdUbFqaz" data-dm-ref="167"><span data-page-node-id="KEbAhjLxasQnOCo0ETabZG" data-dm-ref="168" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">+3.30亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)。这五组反向数据高度同步,不是巧合,是散户在下跌板块中不断补仓、机构用散户的接盘完成离场的典型行为。这个模式的危险之处在于:散户的补仓行为会暂时稳住下跌速度,制造"跌不深"的假象,但一旦情绪临界点到达,清算会一次性完成。回避逻辑:任何不具备"物理稀缺性"或"全球定价权"的板块,在当前格局下都不值得逆势加仓。</span></p><section data-page-node-id="RbHgDKfJvrmYrBB8A1bIQ8" data-dm-ref="169" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;height: 1px;background-color: rgb(236, 231, 222);margin: 0px 0px 22px;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></section><p data-page-node-id="WqpNORqBFxK5cSN4bL2A9f" data-dm-ref="170" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">明天需要验证的</span></p><section data-page-node-id="3CHBJbi3R9tCBrpTTqAiBw" data-dm-ref="171" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 24px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(250, 248, 245);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="pLfCmmfWgo7D3ZKp3hGA8N" data-dm-ref="172" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="gONUYXzxvufXxJpG0WhjFA" data-dm-ref="173"><span data-page-node-id="jmSpPplwK5ZDADQqHkiBFz" data-dm-ref="174" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">1.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 5G/光通信明日主力净流入是否继续放量:继续放量→判断成立;缩量或翻绿→存量换仓结束,追高风险</span></p><p data-page-node-id="tVqkZEvyrQEmnpKVx7pA1t" data-dm-ref="175" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="mo0wbv3sIXmr9FXAN4MGh2" data-dm-ref="176"><span data-page-node-id="paD0JJQ3owAYjc2HDeQuJB" data-dm-ref="177" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">2.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; AI应用是否加速流出:加速流出→叙事切换确认;缩量止跌→机构离场接近尾声,可能有超跌反弹</span></p><p data-page-node-id="wbUtdyeJE0ymXfI4pmdpsx" data-dm-ref="178" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="BWmB2w3PPnQrI1Br1M7xYK" data-dm-ref="179"><span data-page-node-id="KsluQWBgGVG9KXBf3ipfmI" data-dm-ref="180" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">3.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 煤炭/航运能否扩散为板块效应:涨停个股增多→能源实物资产逻辑被确认;仅个别股涨停→情绪脉冲,不追</span></p><p data-page-node-id="POssynh0hohNotehLNanzb" data-dm-ref="181" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="oFJluqQVyAZLCnlCmUHPdE" data-dm-ref="182"><span data-page-node-id="YlGJcIV8GKNNBY7BsrH2zK" data-dm-ref="183" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">4.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 炸板率是否突破</span><strong data-page-node-id="53kdlk7K8YjeVn5Iy1hIFD" data-dm-ref="184"><span data-page-node-id="Sz2KlP30EAR3DSTgYdyqFX" data-dm-ref="185" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">55%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">:突破→退潮信号,全面降低仓位;维持</span><strong data-page-node-id="RNIJl8nz1e1iwJ0Y1by0yY" data-dm-ref="186"><span data-page-node-id="CcGJhXqFIxhgd3EW0s27b3" data-dm-ref="187" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">40%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">以下→接力健康,可延续当前策略</span></p><p data-page-node-id="0s6VmXD1j74QF1JGzTxKFJ" data-dm-ref="188" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong data-page-node-id="Qnv3mqeFByIzmyBMDtdG2Y" data-dm-ref="189"><span data-page-node-id="2t5MAuJWqn67m5X0v1JoT9" data-dm-ref="190" style="color: rgb(184, 149, 110);"><span leaf="">5.</span></span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp; 北向资金今日方向:继续净流出→存量格局不变;结束流出并转正→增量入场信号,策略可转向积极</span></p></section><p data-page-node-id="vwvU4SBzoGpU3pmQvjmxEC" data-dm-ref="191" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-left: 4px solid rgb(184, 149, 110);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.5;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">这个判断什么时候需要修正</span></p><section data-page-node-id="TJ0O7ILTm35k0lKAwdrObO" data-dm-ref="192" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 20px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(253, 243, 241);border-left: 4px solid rgb(212, 53, 28);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="uiPQz48YV6L43cAHvQNARa" data-dm-ref="193" style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">正面(判断成立→可加仓)</span></p><p data-page-node-id="aL7XipaooSPYANGFr3feNZ" data-dm-ref="194" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">5G/光通信明日继续放量净流入、AI应用连续两日净流出超</span><strong data-page-node-id="yhe1cb8P3HZDZjAzIs3bTY" data-dm-ref="195"><span data-page-node-id="Vk20iPrl4URQzbqPdMO4HS" data-dm-ref="196" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">100亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">、炸板率维持</span><strong data-page-node-id="EizoWBnaHOY70bxZI8GRi0" data-dm-ref="197"><span data-page-node-id="kNqtb39qGhpiqoKV3i4UID" data-dm-ref="198" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">40%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">以下、北向结束流出并连续</span><strong data-page-node-id="VIX9GffOOY69VKBWBka1gO" data-dm-ref="199"><span data-page-node-id="rFuXfC7QwXZ6g5tCNHzjHC" data-dm-ref="200" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">2日净流入</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。满足</span><strong data-page-node-id="j1aXAqcnc6UrIbfEfDcdnu" data-dm-ref="201"><span data-page-node-id="PmMcoWrGcGEUKG5Oqqns0B" data-dm-ref="202" style="color: rgb(212, 53, 28);"><span leaf="">三项以上</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,说明AI基础设施重估有增量资金确认,可逢回踩加仓。</span></p></section><section data-page-node-id="j6QbyPlb0dKrkDY0FfUSp1" data-dm-ref="203" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 0px 0px 24px;padding: 16px 16px 4px;background-color: rgb(241, 248, 244);border-left: 4px solid rgb(0, 160, 80);border-radius: 4px;"><p data-page-node-id="Cve4M6z5RcG0fS3GGzsgaM" data-dm-ref="204" style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.6;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(26, 26, 26);"><span leaf="">反面(判断错误→需止损/转向)</span></p><p data-page-node-id="hZPmBhyqt3fu5gFjrAeAbv" data-dm-ref="205" style="margin: 0px 0px 14px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.85;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">5G/光通信明日缩量回落(量比低于</span><strong data-page-node-id="lukQ3J9Q4sCg2gmnJFsFnN" data-dm-ref="206"><span data-page-node-id="BvovDfXt8NGn8aGqNn0mdU" data-dm-ref="207" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span leaf="">0.8</span></span></strong><span leaf="">)、AI应用止跌翻红(机构停止撤离)、炸板率突破</span><strong data-page-node-id="gqJxbamPX9UCRjA1aOh7VI" data-dm-ref="208"><span data-page-node-id="zmH7vREltmR8tnMw6GbmFS" data-dm-ref="209" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">55%</span></span></strong><span leaf="">(退潮信号明确)、北向单日净流出超</span><strong data-page-node-id="TQS3DvdICzkpttoeKz4Pap" data-dm-ref="210"><span data-page-node-id="GNQlohZ1Cgtgha4ubmU2vu" data-dm-ref="211" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">50亿</span></span></strong><span leaf="">。满足</span><strong data-page-node-id="xhD0naQ9ofcUd5vdZbBGIv" data-dm-ref="212"><span data-page-node-id="CNRp3Bv9USFkOpwDfQZTKf" data-dm-ref="213" style="color: rgb(0, 160, 80);"><span leaf="">两项以上</span></span></strong><span leaf="">,说明存量换仓已经结束,市场回到全面收缩格局,全面降仓观望。</span></p></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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