A股情绪持续平淡，警惕中美关系暗流涌动——摩根士丹利最新市场观察

发布于 2025-08-21

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break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">é¢è®¡ä¸åå¹´å¢éæ¿åï¼å³ç¨æåº+ç¾å½éæ±åå¼±+é«åºæ°æåº<p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">å°äº§å¸åºå¯ææªæ¶ï¼<ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); ">â¢<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">7ææ°æ¿ä»·æ ¼ç¯æ¯è·<strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">1.1%ï¼åæ¯è·9.8%ï¼</li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); ">â¢<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">87%çæµåå¸æ°æ¿ä»·æ ¼ä¸è·</li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); ">â¢<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">äºææ¿ä»·æ ¼ç¯æ¯è·<strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">0.5%</li></ul><blockquote style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-top: 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: solid var(--yb-md-blockquote-border-color) 4px;border-image: initial;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;quotes: none;color: var(--yb-md-blockquote-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">é«åºå+è´¸æäºç«¯å»¶ç¼è´æ¿å³çï¼æ¿ä»·ä¸è¡ååä»å</blockquote><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;">â ï¸ ä¸å¤§é£é©ç¹éè¦æ</h4><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;">æ©æ ¹å£«ä¸¹å©ç´æå½åå¸åºå¯è½ä½ä¼°ï¼<p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;">1ï¸â£ <strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">ä¸ç¾å³ç³»çææ¶åé£é©<ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); ">â¢<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">ç¾å½å¯¹å°åº¦éè´ä¿æ²¹å å¾25%å³ç¨</li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); ">â¢<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">è¦åä¸å½æé¢ä¸´100%å³ç¨<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">2ï¸â£ <strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">æ¿çè½å°èå¥æ¨¡ç³</li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); ">â¢<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">å¨å½äººå¤§å¸¸å§ä¼/åä¸å¨ä¼æ¿çä¿¡å·å¾æç¡®<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">3ï¸â£ <strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">ç¾åæ³¢å¨å å§é£é©</li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); ">â¢<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;">ç¾èå¨éæ¯å¨æåèµéåæµç¾å½</li></ul><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;">ð éç½®å»ºè®®ï¼åAåH</h4><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: "PingFang SC", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Ubuntu, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans CN", sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: 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