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A股盛夏行情点燃,流动性是幕后推手?花旗最新解析来了!​

发布于 2025-09-01

<p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">导语:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;经济数据乍暖还寒,A股市场却悄然走强。这波看似矛盾的“夏季躁动”背后,谁在提供动力?花旗最新报告给出了一个关键答案:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">充裕的流动性</span></strong><span leaf="">。让我们看看专业机构如何解读这场“流动性驱动”的行情,以及它能否持续。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">(一) 经济乍冷,股市回暖:流动性的“及时雨”</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">最近公布的一系列经济数据,说实话,有点让人提不起精神。消费、投资等关键指标显示内需仍然偏弱,整体经济复苏的动能似乎还未完全聚集。然而,令人有些意外的是,A股市场却在这片略显阴霾的经济背景下,走出了一波相对积极的“夏季行情”。交易量温和放大,热点板块轮动,市场情绪似乎比数据本身展现的要乐观一些。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">花旗银行在最新发布的《流动性更新——一个充满希望的夏天?》报告中,敏锐地捕捉到了这一现象。他们明确指出,尽管宏观数据突然转弱,他们仍然看好中国市场的夏季表现,而支撑这一判断的核心因素,并非是企业盈利的强劲反转,而是</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">全方位改善的市场流动性</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">简单来说,就是市场上“不缺钱”了。</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;这股充裕的资金,成为了近期股市走强的主要推手。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">(二) 银行间:钱多价低,资金面持续宽松</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">流动性改善最直接的体现,就是银行间市场“水”多了,借钱成本降了。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">花旗报告着重提到了一个关键指标——&nbsp;</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">DR007(银行间存款类机构以利率债为抵押的7天期回购利率)</span></strong><span leaf="">。你可以把它理解为银行之间互相借短期资金的“批发价”。报告显示,过去几个月,DR007一直在走低,上周的平均水平已降至约1.45%。这是个什么概念?要知道在今年1-2月,这个“批发价”还在2%左右。更关键的是,DR007与央行的政策利率(7天期逆回购利率)之间的差距也大幅缩小,几乎达到了一年来的最低水平。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044082" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwknTepOGnNzM8AwEibdX6JAvmX42trVFA4vvDQMCOUicsxIOBWn98icxKMwk5oaBSbLkeROpcc7fVhJQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">这意味着什么?</span></strong></p><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">资金价格便宜了:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;银行间借钱更容易、成本更低,显示出银行体系内流动性非常充裕。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">政策传导更顺畅:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;市场利率紧贴政策利率运行,说明央行维持流动性合理充裕的意图得到了市场的积极响应。这种宽松的环境,为金融机构提供了更多的运作空间,部分资金也更容易流入金融市场(包括股市)。</span></span></li></ol><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">(三) 货币供应:M1反弹,被视作股市“风向标”</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">除了短期的银行间资金,更广义的货币供应量(M1和M2)也呈现出回升趋势。花旗报告指出,自2024年底以来,M1(狭义货币供应量,包括流通中的现金和企业活期存款)和M2(广义货币供应量)的增长一直处于上升通道。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044081" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwknTepOGnNzM8AwEibdX6JAvmJyQXXCmWY5Fs5VjYPmgr40baqsibicsjicXH0tuZiaLfqsg7uFT43kPug/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">不过,花旗对此持相对谨慎态度。他们认为,这种货币增长的回暖,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">更像是“机械性反弹”</span></strong><span leaf="">,而非经济内在活力的“有机改善”。主要原因可能是去年金融政策收紧带来的低基数效应(去年同期数字低,今年同比就显得高了)。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">但市场怎么看?</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;报告强调了一个重要的市场共识:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">市场通常将M1增长率视为A股表现的领先指标。</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;M1代表的是经济中流动性最强的部分,它的回升往往被解读为企业经营活跃度可能提升、或者资金更愿意停留在随时可用的状态(可能部分进入投资领域)的信号。因此,即使反弹有技术性因素,其回升本身对市场情绪仍构成利好。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">(四) 存款搬家:居民的钱,开始向投资“挪窝”?</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">流动性改善的第三个重要来源,可能来自于我们每个人——居民部门。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">报告观察到一个关键变化:尽管居民整体的超额储蓄(存钱习惯)没有发生根本性逆转,但随着银行存款利率的不断下行,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">居民家庭可能已经开始将部分存款重新配置到金融市场了</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">数据说话:</span></strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><span leaf="">今年7月,居民从银行账户中净取出了1.1万亿元人民币。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><span leaf="">尽管总量巨大(162万亿元),但居民存款结构也在变化:活期存款占比仅为26.1%,仍处于历史低位。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><span leaf="">与此同时,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">非银行金融机构(NBFI)存款在7月份大幅增加了2.1万亿元!</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;这个数字比过去三年7月份的平均水平高出了惊人的1.4万亿元。</span></span></li></ul><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044080" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwknTepOGnNzM8AwEibdX6JAvAYAGCydicqKiadWZy02EeyBPliaDLNia6HKfluD64NbK4qem5YkZ3e6syw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">这意味着什么?</span></strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">“存款搬家”迹象显现:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;居民把钱从银行取出来,其中相当一部分并没有去消费,而是流向了非银金融机构,如基金、券商、理财产品等。这很可能是为了追求比银行存款更高的潜在收益。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">资金流入资本市场的渠道:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;非银金融机构是资本市场的重要参与者(买股票、债券等)。其存款大增,表明有巨额资金流入了这些机构,为它们提供了更多的“弹药”来配置金融资产,直接或间接地为股市提供了增量资金。报告将这一现象解读为“</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">居民存款再配置可能已经开始</span></strong><span leaf="">”。</span></span></li></ul><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">(五) 外部助力:关税风险缓和 + 美元走弱</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">除了内部的流动性充裕,外部环境也提供了难得的“助攻”。</span></p><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">关税“休战”延长:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;8月12日,中美双方正式同意延长关税“休战期”。这大大降低了短期内爆发激烈贸易摩擦的“尾部风险”,为市场情绪提供了稳定器。此外,关于中国购买俄罗斯石油可能引发的次级关税问题,也在8月15日被外媒报道称“非迫在眉睫的担忧”,进一步缓解了压力。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">美元走弱预期:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;花旗的外汇团队基于对经济周期的判断,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">依然看弱美元前景</span></strong><span leaf="">。美元走弱通常有助于:</span></span></li><ul style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><span leaf="">吸引外资流入新兴市场(包括中国股市)。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><span leaf="">降低人民币贬值压力,有利于稳定市场预期。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><span leaf="">提振以美元计价的大宗商品价格,利好相关板块。</span></span></li></ul></ol><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044083" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwknTepOGnNzM8AwEibdX6JAvyicYibr7ygpoReDGF31t7vlfeXZ38icdruhiaNV0ib97r6s6nvtBeYwuibRA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">(六) 央行会出手“关水龙头”吗?花旗:暂无需担忧</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">看到市场在流动性驱动下回暖,一个关键问题浮出水面:央行会不会担心“资金空转”(钱只在金融体系内打转,没进入实体经济)而收紧流动性,给市场泼冷水?</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">花旗报告给出了相对明确的判断:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">央行近期收紧流动性的可能性不大(Not imminent)。</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">理由如下:</span></strong></p><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">宏观数据的压力:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;经济数据疲软本身就需要相对宽松的货币环境来支撑。央行需要在支持经济和防范金融风险之间取得平衡。在当前经济形势下,立刻收紧货币,既不利于稳增长,也可能打击刚刚有所恢复的市场信心。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">资本市场的战略地位提升:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;花旗报告敏锐地指出,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">政治局会议已将资本市场视为一项重要任务(KPI)</span></strong><span leaf="">。回顾过去6次讨论经济问题的政治局会议,除了去年12月的会议,其余5次会议都明确表达了对资本市场的支持态度。这种高层定调,意味着维护资本市场稳定运行具有相当高的优先级。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">3.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">金融风险整体可控:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;报告认为,当前整体风险水平仍处于可控阶段。</span></span></li><ul style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">杠杆水平:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;以融资融券(借钱炒股)余额衡量,整个股市的杠杆率,随着近年来市值的扩大,仍然处于可控范围,并未明显“过热”。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">前期整顿效果:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;过去多轮金融去杠杆、地方债务化解行动,包括去年4月开始打击的存款“套利”行为,有效控制系统性风险的效果正在显现。</span></span></li></ul></ol><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">(七) 后续观察:政策接力,基本面仍需夯实</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">虽然流动性是当前行情的主角,但花旗也提醒,关于经济基本面的讨论虽然暂时缺席,但最终会“热起来”。夏季的内需仍然疲软,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">后续已出台政策的落地效果以及是否有新的增量政策出台至关重要</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">房地产政策是重中之重:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;随着房地产市场的持续低迷,市场预期新一轮更大力度的支持政策“正在酝酿中”(in the pipeline)。最近的讨论热点包括资产管理公司(AMC)可能参与住房回购计划(解决烂尾、收储等),以及北京等城市进一步松绑限购政策。房地产市场的稳定对于恢复消费信心、化解地方财政压力、稳定金融系统都至关重要。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">基建投资有望“补作业”:</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;7月投资数据的下滑,部分归因于极端天气干扰。随着这些一次性因素消退,基建投资增速有望在后续月份回升。如果8月份数据依然疲软,可能会为更多刺激政策打开大门,包括在9月政治局会议前后讨论可能的预算调整(追加赤字或专项债额度等)。</span></span></li></ol><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">(八) 结语:流动性支撑的“窗口期”</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">花旗的报告为我们理解当前A股市场与经济数据之间的“温差”提供了一把钥匙:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">充裕且持续改善的流动性是支撑这波夏季行情的关键力量。</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;从银行间市场的宽松、货币供应的企稳反弹,到居民存款可能开始的“搬家”迹象,再到外部环境的边际改善(关税缓和、美元走弱),共同营造了一个相对有利的资金环境。而政策层面对资本市场的重视以及当前金融风险的整体可控,也降低了央行短期内主动收紧流动性的概率。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">然而,流动性驱动的行情,其持续性往往与后续基本面的改善和政策接力密切相关。房地产市场的稳定措施和基建投资的发力情况,将成为观察经济内生动能恢复和政策效果的核心窗口。投资者在把握流动性带来的机会时,也需要密切关注这些关键领域的进展。</span></p><p style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">这个夏天,A股市场在流动性的“暖风”中前行,但能否走得更远、更稳,仍需“基本面”和“政策面”的接力长跑。</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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