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AI引爆碳氢树脂！国产龙头打入英伟达供应链​

发布于 2025-09-28

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">这是一份对东吴证券关于东材科技（601208）研究报告的详细内容总结：</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心观点：</span></span></strong></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">东吴证券首次覆盖东材科技，给予“买入”评级。报告认为东材科技作为国内碳氢树脂龙头，深度绑定全球主流覆铜板（CCL）厂商，核心受益于AI服务器、高速交换机等需求爆发带来的高端电子树脂（特别是碳氢树脂、</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">OPE树脂）量价齐升趋势。公司技术积累深厚，客户粘性强，产能持续扩张，业绩有望迎来高速增长，当前估值相对低估。</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">详细内容总结：</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">公司概况与业务布局：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">定位：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;国内化工新材料领先企业，专注于绝缘材料、光学膜材料、电子材料等研发、制造和销售。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">发展历程：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;从绝缘材料起家（前身东方绝缘材料厂），通过内生发展和外延并购（如金张科技、山东胜通、山东艾蒙特），逐步拓展至光学膜、高端电子树脂（PPO、OPE、BMI、CH等）、环保阻燃材料等高附加值领域。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心业务：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">光学膜：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;覆盖基膜、偏光片、OCA、MLCC载膜等，应用于消费电子、显示、汽车。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">电子材料：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;重点发展高频高速树脂（BMI、活性酯、PPO、CH、OPE等），服务于5G通信、AI服务器、高端PCB，已进入英伟达、苹果、华为等核心产业链。是报告关注的核心增长点。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">绝缘材料：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;电工薄膜（电容器膜、聚酯薄膜等），应用于特高压、光伏、新能源车。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">战略：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;以“国产替代+高端拓展”为主线，持续优化产品结构。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">财务表现与治理：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">营收：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2020-2024年营收CAGR达25%，从18.8亿增至44.7亿（2024年），增长稳健。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;2020-2022年归母净利增长（1.8亿→4.2亿），但2022年后受消费疲软和大宗商品降价影响承压，2024年降至1.8亿。预计2025年起随高端树脂放量修复。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045460" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-ratio="0.6982758620689655" data-w="464" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9ayicndW17ggiasoMibibxsPCbmmtVQuS6kdWkfJyicwc4EUibMcPYZ1u2YZuw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">费用与研发：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;期间费用率稳中有降（2024年约6%），研发投入保持高位（占收比约5%），重视技术创新。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股权结构：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;控股股东为高金技术产业集团（20.34%），实控人熊海涛，股权结构清晰稳定。公司实施过多轮股权激励。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心投资逻辑：AI驱动高端树脂量价齐升</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">需求爆发：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;AI训练/推理需求激增 → 服务器计算密度提升 → 高速PCB需求增长 → 高端覆铜板（CCL）需求爆发（需Very Low Loss / Ultra Low Loss等级，Df&lt;0.005）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">树脂是关键：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;树脂性能（尤其是介电损耗Df）直接决定CCL性能，进而影响信号传输速度和完整性。传统环氧树脂（Df~0.02）无法满足，需碳氢树脂（CH, Df可低至0.0005）、聚苯醚树脂（PPO/OPE）等</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高性能树脂。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">量价齐升驱动：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">量：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;AI服务器（如英伟达GB200 NVL72）、800G交换机等高端设备出货量激增（报告举例GB200 rack 2025年5月出货环比接近翻倍），大量采用M8/M9级CCL，核心配方依赖CH、OP</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">E树脂，需求大幅增长。预测PCB市场（尤其服务器/数据中心领域）将持续扩张。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">价：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;高端树脂（如CH、OPE）技术门槛高，性能要求严苛，单价显著高于传统树脂（如普通环氧树脂）。随着应用等级提升（M8→M9→M10），树脂性能要求更高，价值量提升。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业壁垒高（验证周期长+替换成本高）：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">树脂需经历漫长验证周期（&gt;9个月），涉及配方匹配、CCL制板、PCB加工、整机测试等多环节。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">服务器技术迭代快，要求材料供应商高频响应。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一旦通过验证并量产，因替换成本（时间、资源）极高，客户粘性极强。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="4"><li><span data-marker="4."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">公司核心竞争力：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">技术领先 &amp; 产品体系完善：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;在高频高速树脂领域（BMI、活性酯、PPO、CH、OPE等）技术积累深厚，产品性能满足高端CCL（M8/M9级）要求。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">深度绑定核心客户：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;成功打入全球主流CCL厂商供应链，包括台光电子（大陆最大BMI树脂供应商，供应量超80%）、台耀科技、生益科技、韩国斗山等，并间接供货英伟达、苹果、华为等终端巨头。与台光合作尤其紧密。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产能持续扩张：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;现有产能（如BMI 3700吨、活性酯1200吨）基础上，重点推进：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">绵阳项目（5200吨特种树脂）一期已投产放量。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">眉山项目（核心增量）：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;规划2万吨高速树脂产能（含CH树脂3500吨、OPE树脂5000吨等），总投资7亿，建设期24个月，预计2025年下半年投产。满产后预计年销售收入20亿，利润6亿，税后IRR 40%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">快速响应能力：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;能适应服务器端快速迭代需求，满足客户定制化调配要求。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="5"><li><span data-marker="5."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利预测与估值：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">收入预测：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;预计2025-2027年营收分别为51.85亿 / 68.43亿 / 90.12亿元，同比增长16%/32%/32%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">归母净利润预测：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;预计2025-2027年分别为4.63亿 / 10.34亿 / 15.57亿元，同比增长155.72%/123.46%/50.56%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">EPS预测：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;0.47 / 1.04 / 1.57元/股（最新股本摊薄）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估值：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;当前股价（17.51元）对应2025-2027年PE分别为37.62 / 16.83 / 11.18倍。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">可比公司：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;选取菲利华（玻纤布）、中材科技（玻纤布）、宏和科技（玻纤布）、德福科技（铜箔）、铜冠铜箔（铜箔）作为可比（同属CCL上游材料环节）。可比公司2025/2026/2027年PE均值分别为154/80</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">/60倍。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结论：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;东材科技作为全球电子材料龙头，业绩增长确定性强（高端树脂放量），当前估值显著低于行业均值，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="6"><li><span data-marker="6."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险提示：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成本传导失效：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;原材料（石油衍生品）价格上涨无法通过提价转移。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产能建设不及预期：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;新项目（尤其是眉山2万吨）建设进度延迟。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">客户拓展不及预期：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;新增产能消化依赖新客户开拓，若认证或拓展不顺影响业绩。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总结：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;该报告强烈看好东材科技在AI驱动的下一代服务器升级浪潮中的核心卡位优势（高端电子树脂），认为其技术、客户和产能布局将充分受益于行业量价齐升的高景气度，业绩即将迎来爆发式增长，且当前估值具有吸引力。</span></span></span></span></p><section><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: left;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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