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AI服务器引爆HVLP铜箔!国产替代打破日韩垄断

发布于 2025-09-14

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下是2025年9月9日天风证券策略深度报告《</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI服务器发展助力高端铜箔国产替代</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">》的核心内容总结:</span></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="0QoVzUdtFp" data-dir-key="0QoVzUdtFp"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、核心结论</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业逻辑</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:AI服务器爆发(如英伟达Rubin平台)推动高端PCB铜箔需求量价齐升:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">HVLP铜箔</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">单台AI服务器用量为传统服务器的8倍,且升级至第5代(配套PTFE基板)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">载体铜箔</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">受益于先进封装(2.5D/3D)和存储芯片需求,IC载板市场规模预计从2024年230亿美元增至2037年1003亿美元。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">国产替代机遇</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全球高端铜箔70%份额被日韩垄断(三井、古河、索路思)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">国内企业(铜冠铜箔、德福科技)技术突破,订单放量,加速切入供应链。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="uC8bWdZcEB" data-dir-key="uC8bWdZcEB"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、高端PCB铜箔分类与技术特性</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><table><tbody><tr style=""><th style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">类型</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心特点</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">应用场景</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th></tr><tr style=""><td style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">HVLP铜箔</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">表面粗糙度≤0.6μm,低信号损耗(趋肤效应优化),高平整度,热稳定性强。&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI服务器、5G基站、高速数据中心(英伟达芯片标配)</span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">载体铜箔</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">厚度≤9μm,可剥离设计,抗拉强度高,表面轮廓低(Rz≤1.5μm)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">IC封装载板、HDI板、Coreless基板&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">RTF铜箔</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">低粗糙度(提升基板结合力),技术迭代至第5代。&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高阶HDI、封装载板</span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">技术难点</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:</span></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">HVLP</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:设备精密(进口依赖)、工艺复杂(毛箔粗糙度控制/硅烷偶联涂覆)、认证周期长(头部客户验证需1-2年)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">载体铜箔</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:剥离力稳定性(过高/过低导致加工失败),超薄铜层均匀性及强度控制。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="FOmlLg_kig" data-dir-key="FOmlLg_kig"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、市场需求与竞争格局</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">需求驱动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI服务器需求激增(HVLP为主),5G高频通信、先进封装(可剥离铜箔)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全球HVLP铜箔85%由日韩主导(2021年韩国占61%),载体铜箔90%被三井垄断。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045538" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-ratio="0.9518716577540107" data-w="374" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9ajWFEiaUmKIPQmfibibkIuUyEHoTuxeaF8lZmRl64L32uDYLr57GpC9RnQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">国产化进展</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">铜冠铜箔</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:HVLP 1-4代量产(2代为主),载体铜箔核心技术突破中。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">已导入头部CCL厂商供应链,订单饱满。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">德福科技</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">拟全资收购卢森堡铜箔(欧洲唯一非日系龙头),获全球前四大高速覆铜板客户认证(1家独家供应)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">HVLP 1-5代、载体铜箔(1.5μm)技术对标国际,2025年目标出货千吨级。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业龙头验证</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三井金属</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预测铜箔业务ROIC从2024年27%升至2030年49%,HVLP 25年增速93%(25-27年CAGR 13%),重点扩产中国台湾/马来西亚工厂。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="kQarSXzFw6" data-dir-key="kQarSXzFw6"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、重点公司分析</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><table><tbody><tr style=""><th style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">公司</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">技术布局</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产业化进展</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心竞争力</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th></tr><tr style=""><td style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">铜冠铜箔</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">HVLP 1-4代量产,载体铜箔研发中。&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">HVLP 1-3代批量供货,RTF国内市占率第一。&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">打破海外技术封锁,客户覆盖头部CCL厂商。&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">德福科技</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">收购卢森堡铜箔(HVLP 5代/载体铜箔),自有夸父实验室推动高端转型。&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">卢森堡产能1.68万吨/年,2024年HVLP 3-4代批量供货。&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td><td style="max-width: 213.5px;min-width: 213.5px;"><p><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">绑定全球顶尖AI芯片厂(如英伟达)、云厂商。&nbsp;</span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总结</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:AI服务器与先进封装驱动高端铜箔(HVLP/载体铜箔)进入高景气周期,国内厂商技术突破+产能扩张加速国产替代,铜冠铜箔(产品成熟)、德福科技(国际化整合)为核心受益标的。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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