AI＋房地产的救市思路：以深圳为例 转载

<section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;">1、目标</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">制定一个清晰的工作流程表，用来跟踪新建住房项目从开始规划到正式销售的每个重要环节，帮助更好地管理房地产市场。</span></p><hr style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;">2、具体落地方案</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">2.1数据采集与基础建设</span></strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>政府数据：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">主要包括各类许可证信息，如土地、规划、施工和销售许可证。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>市场调查数据：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">通过问卷调查收集房地产市场基本信息，包括：&nbsp;</span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;list-style-type: square;"><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><section><em>房屋供应和需求情况</em></section></li><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><section><em>库存和销售比例</em></section></li><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><section><em>房价水平</em></section></li><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><section><em>市场需求预测</em></section></li><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><section><em>房价与收入的对比</em></section><section><br /></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li style="font-weight: bold;"><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>公开市场数据：</strong></p></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;list-style-type: square;"><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><p><em>房产数据：从贝壳、克而瑞、房天下等网站获取新房和二手房信息</em></p></li><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><p><em>地图数据：从高德、百度、腾讯地图获取位置信息</em></p></li><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><p><em>就业数据：从智联招聘等平台获取人口、经济和就业信息</em></p><p><br /></p></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>项目重点数据：</strong></p></li><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><section><em>基本信息：项目叫什么名字、在哪里、有多大</em></section></li><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><section><em>重要时间点：什么时候拿到土地、什么时候通过规划审批、什么时候开始建设</em></section></li><li style="font-style: italic;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><section><em>销售信息：预计什么时候可以卖、销售的关键时间点有哪些、价格怎么管理</em></section><section><br /></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">2.2 流程分析与关键指标确定</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>建立流程框架</strong></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">把整个过程分成四个主要步骤：拿地、规划审批、开始建设、开始销售。我们需要明确每个步骤的具体时间和决策标准。</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>关键指标设置</strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>合理安排开盘时间：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">根据当前市场的房源库存情况和购房者的购买能力，灵活调整开盘时间。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>价格设置范围：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">要考虑两个方面：一是买房人能承受的最高价格，二是保证合理的最低价格。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>优化供应布局：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">研究不同区域的供需情况，确保房源供应能满足市场实际需求。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">2.3系统化成果设计</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">通过设计简单易操作且展示效果良好的信息化系统，收集和展示以下重要数据：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>基本信息：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">每个项目的名称、所在区域和大小</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>关键时间：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">记录规划审批、开始建设和开盘销售等重要时间点</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>市场数据：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">记录库存和销售的比例，以及当地市场供需关系</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>销售建议：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">根据市场情况，提出合适的销售时间和节奏</span></section><section><br /></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">2.4动态监控与评估</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">每月检查和记录项目的最新进展，并根据市场的实际情况来合理安排房源供应。并</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">定期写出项目进展报告，交给相关领导审查。</span></p><hr style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;"></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;">3.数据库建设</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">为了更好地跟踪和管理这些数据，我们要建立一个数据库，收集以下几类基本信息：</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>表1：项目基本信息表</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>主要作用：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">记录每个房地产项目的基本信息，方便管理。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>更新频率：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">每月更新一次</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358276" data-ratio="0.7317919075144509" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQF93yub3b46Kiaa3nR6icKa9eZaXJjOnDw9mAyJLrCwdZYDHvFBiaib0iaZw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>表2：区域供需状况表</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>用途：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">了解每个区域的房屋供应和购买需求情况，帮助决定什么时候推出新房源比较合适。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>更新频率：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">每月更新一次</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358277" data-ratio="0.5017341040462427" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQsXWhf6hE4JnDRibYqwEnsjljJGkb7zaAeEA9hk128MoGn22YMZuIia2A/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>表3：项目销售动态表</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>用途：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">跟踪和记录每个房地产项目的销售情况，帮助分析市场走向。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>更新频率：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">每个月更新一次</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358275" data-ratio="0.4092485549132948" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQzmod7kQOXO01rgvL2BbLYMG794IR9JrFkFVALyNj4EVutoHicpcfNzA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /><br /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>表4：人口地理经济POI数据表</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>用途：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">记录深圳各区域的基本情况，包括：&nbsp;</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">交通设施、商业设施、教育机构、医疗机构、休闲场所、人口年龄分布、就业机会、地理位置。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>更新频率：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">每月更新一次</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358278" data-ratio="0.6739884393063584" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQb91xAq50xIb8CZx7l02BqMdQCcfOwwIZzxTCetJe8pWtYDuiccvSxSA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>表5：新房、二手房挂牌/成交数据表</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>用途：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">用来记录和跟踪每个房地产项目的销售情况，帮助我们了解市场走向。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>更新频率：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">每月更新一次</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358279" data-ratio="1.1341040462427745" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQralx8j43Hib59OQwOrtHrAJiae8a7sKN0pD3e6iaKIcELe5YcNdcS5AqA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><hr style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;"></span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;">4.分析建模</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><strong>我们会通过分析市场数据来帮助管理房地产市场。具体做法是：</strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 2em;">收集和分析市场各项基本数据</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">使用大数据和人工智能技术进行分析</span></section></li></ul><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><strong>根据分析结果来进行以下判断：&nbsp;</strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">合理安排新楼盘的上市时间</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">对房价进行适当管控</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">帮助确定合理的房价水平</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">4.1板块-产品供求比/去化率建模</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">我们会对每个区域内不同面积的房产进行供求关系分析，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">会考虑以下几个主要因素：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>房价调控：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">政府调整房价会影响供求平衡</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>现有房源数量：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">市场上可售房源的数量</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><strong>购房需求：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">主要受以下因素影响：购房者的经济能力、 当地人口年龄构成、 整体经济形势（这个因素对全市都有相同影响）</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">4.2供求比（去化率）建模</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358284" data-ratio="0.39814814814814814" data-type="png" data-w="864" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQOAMOQw8Tr8a2oaCLFbojVB9opgGrLhkSiaDkDJ6AdSeCgDh7bZPZXoA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">4.3&nbsp;客户需求量建模</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358281" data-ratio="0.6705202312138728" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQOf4kzjgpqnSNzpYbfSjY1hAQq5ImSegda4UbfXBKuQWNxehgeibN4gA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><strong>我们通过禾略种子收集和展示客户需求数据，示例如下：</strong></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358282" data-ratio="0.4962962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQdMkdpaLbCCQIlStqwYwROZwv7aWKOkyXON4I8zqe7uRntrVguEf32w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358280" data-ratio="0.46581691772885286" data-type="png" data-w="863" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQJRlOCAZHw97BBQgRa7tBibTMVsON6ff0FfRI1Xo1mpokmFYMViazsqtg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">4.4供应量（库存量）建模</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358283" data-ratio="0.3136574074074074" data-type="png" data-w="864" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQneicORut11blfG8Uia0dAcUD6gmICqYIbKwwCXgY149ltFgkEO6Th2rQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">4.5价格管控对供需平衡的影响</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358285" data-ratio="0.4728323699421965" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQWgSkNmrb5MXiaBrz4y4eicY0m5MAGEXC3ekicaic8Xs8TOB8SCdGtqQDkg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">4.6供求比的动态调整</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358286" data-ratio="0.3895953757225434" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQBtq5OxqXN55usYV3EbCpP0BFPPv9FqlmKEV15UkxFNLciatks382icOQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">4.7总模型：板块-产品供求比综合模型</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358289" data-ratio="0.2184971098265896" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQHVj0vVBut4Dpd0XyiaC41C5CXHBRuJ5REN2VcYtA7bic8kW7lQXUMRKw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">通过这个分析模型，我们会考虑以下几个关键因素来研究房地产市场：&nbsp;房价控制情况 、现有房源数量、 购房者需求量 、整体经济状况。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">通过分析这些数据，我们可以：&nbsp;了解每个地区不同类型房子的供需情况、 判断房价是否合理、确定是否供需平衡、更好地控制新房上市的时间和价格。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">由于房地产市场的特点是变化比较慢，今天的变化可能要过几个月才能看到效果。因此，我们还会研究这种延迟影响。如果我们能找到这种规律，就可以预测未来几个月的市场变化，提前做好准备和调整。</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">4.8跨期预测模型：</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358287" data-ratio="0.14354066985645933" data-type="png" data-w="836" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQlLhgGZyibI5icJYGCBrVh7HUFPIXhA9506IuxLaIvD0fXCNzIwYeicNQw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358288" data-ratio="0.4658959537572254" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQtbyIsrJsqyr6OKnrACU7cXmianjicQDt0apiaNFgSdLBQC0J2ejtC7jCA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">这个模型可以用当前的数据来预测未来的房地产供求情况，考虑到市场反应较慢的特点，帮助我们提前做出合适的决策和调整。</span></p><hr style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"></span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;">5.全市公里网格土地价值模型</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">我们通过分析二手房市场的实际成交数据来了解每个区域的房价水平。这些数据能帮助我们：确定某个区域的合理房价 、 判断房价是否处于供需平衡状态、 为新房定价提供参考依据。</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358292" data-ratio="0.47333333333333333" data-type="png" data-w="750" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQGmkEF5ROSQlp8er3DK3K9UEAH704SEv0iaqK6IicZcSJjKfniaSeibicOCg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">这些数据会被输入到我们的&quot;板块-产品供求比/去化率模型&quot;中，用于价格管控。具体分析过程分两步：</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>第一步：分析房子本身的特点对房价的影响 ：</strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">使用地理加权回归（GWR）方法</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">研究诸如房龄、户型等因素是如何影响房价的&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">把这些影响因素标准化，得到一个&quot;统一标准&quot;的房价</span></p></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>第二步：分析地理位置和周边设施对房价的影响 ：</strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">把第一步得到的&quot;统一标准&quot;房价作为基础</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">&nbsp;使用先进的数据分析模型（如LGBM）&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">计算出位置、交通、学校等周边配套设施对房价的具体影响程度</span></p></li></ul><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">通过这种方式，我们可以更科学地理解影响房价的各种因素。</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358290" data-ratio="0.5780780780780781" data-type="png" data-w="666" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQcUSC8e0PAKLsNHuFE0rBe70miauGksIdzHzVnPfN1pgTfgNHh7OWmew/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">5.1 GWR 剥离产品因素影响，得到统一口径房价算法说明</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358294" data-ratio="0.6167315175097277" data-type="png" data-w="514" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQpnv2zkhv8EXiaoiatWzZP53H61US20k2WkqM0EKCOO0iaicuJmJo9Z1PCA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">地理加权回归示意</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358293" data-ratio="0.6376262626262627" data-type="png" data-w="792" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQuzUMk3icvNDT7pxrDicM3RFNOztQLPNlPiahVKtDvylxMvCQZ6oNGFxag/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358291" data-ratio="0.34797687861271676" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQI5VkhqicYApL91eEfyzHb4T1VxBceEzTSibhMgJ6pbSv9YIV38glH7mw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">5.2基于统一口径房价的地理区位与配套因素建模</span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong>土地价值建模：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">我们用房价数据来建立一个模型，分析地理位置和周边设施是如何影响房价的：</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358295" data-ratio="0.6097972972972973" data-type="png" data-w="592" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQtPTQXPlShaOO2iaWpiclXLbfITGAOMlibAYN85ey5goRMsJSWn9DyZmMQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358296" data-ratio="0.7592592592592593" data-type="png" data-w="864" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQY7WNW0wS9b7JMysJC1D6KveJzkI2xT8Gmt5aicYH1IgG2sgnlSyqyyw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358297" data-ratio="1.2011560693641619" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQGGwqS4ncjHzC0GbCVN1NBjfRbx7vYFQJ2nyCx0kGicY3cojGOXQjPsw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358298" data-ratio="0.5424460431654676" data-type="png" data-w="695" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQRYn0Ng04nfrgcZnkYxgouwnT6PeV2btfJy6UtsTsthHQWujVtHNAxw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">深圳市公里格网土地价值分布示意</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">5.3地块价值升级配套导入</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">我们建立了一个土地价值评估模型，这个模型帮助我们理解不同因素是如何影响一块土地的价值的。这些因素包括：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">地理位置&nbsp;</span></section></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">周边居住人口</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">配套设施（如学校、商场等）</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">&nbsp;产业发展情况</span></p></li></ul><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">通过这个模型，我们可以清楚地知道要提升某块地的价值，最需要改善哪些方面。具体的分析结果可以在我们的可视化系统中直观地看到，比如梅林片区的各项配套设施分布情况。</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358299" data-ratio="0.6473988439306358" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQ8Jk0HcWoXENiaaABprB6F0Ytl1EAKV8B6y00ZCibOjkqRCicgIibiarksJg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">深圳梅林片区商业、交通、教育资源配套示意（内部可视化系统平台）</span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358301" data-ratio="0.5960648148148148" data-type="png" data-w="864" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQ8VtfdIBiaic13sEPM7S1aUtwucbFknUPkURCRbicDFaplhcUCT892KQmg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">梅林公里网格地块升级导入因素示意（内部可视化系统平台）</span></p><hr style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;">6.产品线合理房价模型</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">这个模型用机器学习的方法来计算深圳全市的合理房价，帮助指导新房定价。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">我们会把计算出的合理价格放入&quot;板块-产品供求比/去化率模型&quot;的第4个子模型（价格管控模型）中进行分析。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">具体步骤如下：</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358303" data-ratio="0.47333333333333333" data-type="png" data-w="750" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQGmkEF5ROSQlp8er3DK3K9UEAH704SEv0iaqK6IicZcSJjKfniaSeibicOCg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">首先，我们根据深圳市的工资收入水平，把全市的新房和二手房按总价分成10个档次。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">然后，我们用随机森林这种人工智能模型来分析每个区域（以公里为单位）的：</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">不同价位房子的比例、</span><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">房子面积、</span><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">房价水平。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358300" data-ratio="0.46705202312138727" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQKiacCY8WMzUn6qnewmgic2OrtW3nkgibqmu3RFsU8mmczGuUX9qye6RoQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">最后，我们把这10个档次的房价按比例计算平均值，得出每个区域的合理房价。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">使用案例示意如下：</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358304" data-ratio="0.33449074074074076" data-type="png" data-w="864" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQbiaIFXmKnMAibPVyRNmWumytRaACUDI3repiaxxmHGosfbCT8s02wkXKw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></span></section><hr style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;"></span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;">7.客户池需求量估算</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">我们可以通过以下两个方面来估算潜在客户的数量：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.417px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">统计在不同车程范围内的上班族和居民人数</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">计算想要换房的现有业主数量</span></section></li></ul><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358302" data-ratio="0.6705202312138728" data-type="png" data-w="865" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQOf4kzjgpqnSNzpYbfSjY1hAQq5ImSegda4UbfXBKuQWNxehgeibN4gA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358307" data-ratio="0.4930555555555556" data-type="png" data-w="864" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQatuvrHCsT7QI439vSRibw7BghwvhcyzAmJN643TXuzKj07HosdoCKlQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">客户池估算示意图</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="502358305" data-ratio="0.44560185185185186" data-type="png" data-w="864" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQn1VIOTK0JBHHTQFBPrSgUxGRqMFoTOxtntzXIQ1GiarmBGeJj77MlDA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">客户池估算结果示意图</span></p><hr style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;"></span></strong></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;">成果一小结</span></strong></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">我们将新建楼盘的相关数据输入到供需分析模型中，通过这个模型来：预测市场变化 、及时发现供需和价格的不平衡 、 帮助管理部门更好地控制新楼盘的上市时间和定价。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 2em;">这样做的目的是确保房地产市场能够健康平稳地发展。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: rgb(171, 25, 66);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;">示例：深圳中建·观玥日清后是否应该加大此类产品供给？</span></strong></span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358306" data-ratio="0.7824074074074074" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 407px;height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQcKPicbfh7QWlGrjUeSJcNEFTN7FicrLZgLBv97RMibzKUbEiansY4Zk60w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: underline;">土地属性不符合深圳购房者需求</span></strong></span><br /></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">通过将深圳今年热销TOP30项目进行土地价值落位，可以发现一个铁律：大多数热销项目土地价值位于第三能级（图中黄色及更深色区域），说明深圳客户更偏好土地价值成熟区域，在目前的房地产形式下，购房者已经无法被一个“发展预期”引导购房，大家更需要所见即所得的兑现。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">以贝壳热销榜中的鸿荣源珈誉府和深业颐樾府为例，均处于深圳土地价值T3级；中建·观玥土地价值为T4级，从土地成熟度的角度来说，难以符合主流客群需求，在目前的市场行情下，逃不过以价换量的局面。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358309" data-ratio="0.7253886010362695" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="579" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQgDGncARsmtWT1fLF8libuZxYYDgXWBnuW8U6qV97ibWnKFLdR0aPqSRA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);">鸿荣源珈誉府-T3级</span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358308" data-ratio="0.6802973977695167" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="807" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQibzwh7FMTaAibD8iaibFrSgylicMFWl7w4qyibv0OWvtLOicHiaYQFjOQqHDMA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);">深业颐樾府-T3级，毗邻T2级区域</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358313" data-ratio="0.7029702970297029" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="909" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQbuXaWldp5HkB3sXE3UZtq4JUIJB629suOLdibxL7YecyHU8kEUCedhg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);">中建·观玥-T4级，且周边缺乏成熟区域</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="background-color: rgb(214, 168, 65);"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">价格突破有机会，但要呈现匹配的产品</span></strong></span></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">目前中建·观玥在售产品主要为80-89㎡三房及110㎡四房，根据前文中提到的产品线<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">合理房价模型，此类产品大约是第四等级，毛坯合理价格28000元/㎡左右，目前折后33000元/㎡的精装售价，与该数据大致吻合；这类产品的优势是市场占比高，实现概率高（代表好卖），问题在于对价格的实现力确实很差。</span></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358311" data-ratio="0.6795016987542469" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="883" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQA9RHG4w4mD6gibibVaIEtPgGut5rYaBTmIZyKcmOs9b2sHJygfYG8RnA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);">中建·观玥-第四级产品合理房价模型</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">然而，这个区域仍旧有好的价格兑现机会，当进入第六级产品之后，合理价格有机会突破43000元/㎡，并且市场占比10%的水平，可以一定程度上保障项目的安全性；唯一的问题是实现概率低于100%，销售难度有所增加，也就是库存去化压力有点大。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358312" data-ratio="0.5972222222222222" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkjv3ZzibvSGvAYxkUHxrBJQuvx2Vo3BiaddNz4eRIwnciaIRHzJNRjicibUVt5a5X0Yf74gicMfr196kiaw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(64, 118, 0);">中建·观玥-第六级产品合理房价模型</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 2em;">所以，中建·观玥此类项目，目前来看缺少“价格好-卖得好”这种绝佳机会，从城市房地产供应的角度，减少此类项目供应是更好的选择；在供地方面，可以加大T3及以上能级土地的供应，以迎合客户的购房需求。</p><section><section style="display: inline-block;"><img data-ratio="1.7066666666666668" data-type="jpg" data-w="750" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7kpT4IG8Ja26ojO09YnjITvtuVKQ0Lf2jVIPFqncS8Jo3lL7OWUsKl5kKW9Axm8iagictOdZzyLDfw/640?wx_fmt=png" /></section></section><p><br /></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>