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Barclays全球基础设施估值报告深度解读:2025年投资机会洞察

发布于 2025-08-15

<h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">一、全球宏观环境:稳健增长下的通胀与利率挑战</span></h3><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">报告开篇就强调了宏观环境对基础设施投资的关键影响。Barclays基于全球主要经济体的数据(FIGURE 1-4),预测2024-2026年全球经济将维持温和增长,但通胀和利率压力仍是主要风险。</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">GDP增长</span></strong><span leaf="">:中国和印度领跑新兴市场,2025年增速分别为4.5%和6.9%,而欧美发达经济体增长乏力。欧元区GDP增速仅0.8%,美国为1.4%。这表明新兴市场的基础设施需求更旺盛,尤其是交通和能源领域。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042063" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicH9mNe5ZBwA33knxX8MXmJQhEPwRBwPCYW555zRXuIl7XibKp9oQ0lGRg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">通胀与利率</span></strong><span leaf="">:通胀压力分化明显。俄罗斯和巴西CPI高达9.2%和5.2%,而中国仅为0.2%。央行政策上,美联储预计在2026年逐步降息至3.5%-3.75%,欧洲央行则保持谨慎,存款利率维持在1.5%。高利率环境可能压制基础设施项目的融资成本,但公用事业等防御性行业相对抗风险。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042062" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHNJ3DhpPSCPmt1pibz7nCasnS9D5wWfnuFEhKNYGl1KibvtIyNMDg7VZg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042065" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHP4Qfc1wuERVKE470HycUxuK8gXtjviaZN9EBWgZHnMsqoQ4mxxePnzA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">债券收益率</span></strong><span leaf="">:美国10年期国债收益率稳定在4.15%,欧洲政府债券收益率升至3%。这反映市场对长期资产的偏好,基础设施债券的吸引力增强。</span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">总结</span></strong><span leaf="">:新兴市场是增长引擎,但通胀和利率波动需警惕。投资者可关注通胀敏感度低的行业,如公用事业和核心交通设施。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">二、运输基础设施:机场和铁路领跑,估值分化显著</span></h3><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">报告将运输基础设施分为欧洲机场、墨西哥机场、欧洲建筑特许经营和北美铁路四大板块(FIGURE 5-6)。整体来看,行业平均P/E比率为20.7倍(2025年),但不同区域表现悬殊。</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">欧洲机场与ATC</span></strong><span leaf="">:平均P/E为19.2倍,苏黎世机场(Zurich Airport)和巴黎机场集团(AdP)获“增持”评级,目标价涨幅超10%。主要驱动力是旅游复苏,但自由现金流收益率仅3.8%,显示资本支出压力大。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042064" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHPX9gIhns5a9aVSprJYJMf7mxvy8jTbEs6ayNyQoGUAK442gquKNayg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">墨西哥机场</span></strong><span leaf="">:估值更高(平均P/E 17.7倍),ASUR公司目标价达587墨西哥比索,涨幅17%。受益于北美供应链重构,但政治风险需注意。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042061" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHribSpC9Paicux2mZnWEib0Z982CGPuHzgXRNociaRgXI5QRSaxjZd9mBnA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">北美铁路</span></strong><span leaf="">:联合太平洋(Union Pacific)和加拿大太平洋KC获“增持”评级,目标涨幅超20%。行业平均P/E为20倍,受益于货运需求稳定,但劳动力成本上升是隐忧。</span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">逻辑分析</span></strong><span leaf="">:区域经济复苏强度决定估值。欧洲增长慢,但防御性强;新兴市场如墨西哥机会更大,但波动风险高。投资者应优选现金流稳定的龙头公司。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">三、电信基础设施:高增长伴随高估值,美国市场主导</span></h3><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">电信板块(FIGURE 7-8)以高估值著称,平均P/E达48.9倍(2025年)。报告重点分析了欧洲塔楼和美国通信基础设施,卫星通信作为新兴领域表现亮眼。</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">欧洲塔楼</span></strong><span leaf="">:Cellnex和Inwit平均P/E为96.2倍,自由现金流收益率仅2.6%。报告给出“中性”评级,认为5G建设高峰期已过,增长放缓。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042066" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHqLDq2qceibJJNOqt4ibhVdD5XUezSDP4PKYPw9MmeSN3MyfulOCkm8TA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">美国通信基础设施</span></strong><span leaf="">:American Tower和Equinix获“增持”评级,目标价涨幅超15%。行业平均EV/EBITDA高达970倍,因数据中心和云服务需求爆发。但高杠杆(平均净债务/EBITDA 4.6倍)是主要风险。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042070" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicH5rlib9Ynnvn3XzIsYOIMrLXrt5swl4D9iaGgs2BHrM8uYhyE1zxcouCw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">卫星通信</span></strong><span leaf="">:Iridium目标价31美元,涨幅28.1%,因低轨卫星应用扩张。但行业平均P/E为负值(-151.6倍),显示盈利不稳定。</span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">总结</span></strong><span leaf="">:美国市场主导创新红利,但估值泡沫需警惕。卫星通信是长期赛道,适合风险偏好高的投资者。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">四、公用事业:防御性首选,欧洲可再生能源崛起</span></h3><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">公用事业部门(FIGURE 9-12)被报告视为“避风港”,尤其欧洲板块获“积极”评级。分欧盟管制公用事业、可再生能源和发电商三类。</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">欧盟管制公用事业</span></strong><span leaf="">:平均P/E 14.2倍,股息率4.9%(2026年)。Severn Trent和United Utilities估值稳健,但资本支出导致自由现金流为负。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042067" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHnEjooDwAUg3aibrXUfES4em0nIGGL1ncyxiaEOhoib9fG34MN3Zx5ianHQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">可再生能源</span></strong><span leaf="">:Orsted和RWE目标价涨幅超30%,因绿色转型加速。但行业P/E波动大(-42.2倍),项目延期风险高。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042068" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicH0jnVWiajghlXuskia9MibEkibjP4kx9Zd0pAxVfUCyK0yDLTXScWSHlINQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">美国公用事业</span></strong><span leaf="">:大型电力公司如Duke Energy估值合理(P/E 19.4倍),但增长缓慢(收入增速5%)。报告建议关注中小型公司如Sempra,目标价71美元。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042069" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHHicaqCxKmpeQibXuRkamZcBy3VLf3Fl6rP6UibMXNcEf3MVBfrQnjsUmw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">逻辑分析</span></strong><span leaf="">:公用事业的核心优势是稳定现金流和高股息。欧洲可再生能源是政策红利焦点,但需精选项目执行力强的企业。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">五、能源传输与存储:北美中游板块价值凸显</span></h3><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">能源传输与存储(FIGURE 13-14)聚焦北美中游公司,行业平均P/E 18.6倍,自由现金流收益率5.2%。报告给予“中性”评级,但个股机会突出。</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">龙头企业</span></strong><span leaf="">:Energy Transfer LP目标价25美元,涨幅48%,因管道网络扩张。Cheniere Energy受益LNG出口,目标价262美元。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042071" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHqZuM0zAEbicLcvgeBLibFN1nhafWZL7iaA5b8ALk9tPxDNKtMckMbFu6Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">风险点</span></strong><span leaf="">:原油价格波动导致Plains All American等公司EBITDA下滑。平均净债务/EBITDA 3.8倍,需关注偿债能力。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042072" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHS7yQmmIxBCicIQzwWfaY8vs90Jegvxgb7yPt2wAbM0Nj9z2Joj5c1JA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">总结</span></strong><span leaf="">:能源转型驱动中游基础设施需求,优选现金流强劲的运营商。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">六、投资公司表现:可再生能源基金领跑</span></h3><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">基础设施投资公司(FIGURE 15)以英国可再生能源基金为主,如Greencoat UK Wind和Foresight Solar Fund。报告指出,行业平均P/NAV(净资产净值比)为0.75倍,估值折价明显。</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">高增长机会</span></strong><span leaf="">:Gore Street Energy Storage目标价94便士,涨幅61.1%,因储能需求爆发。但项目开发周期长,现金流不稳定。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042073" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHuSG2mxxCB8Rjjy3NWgF1ka0N1J9dz3a7rGTvuZju5qbZOD0DGicVgiaw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">股息优势</span></strong><span leaf="">:平均股息率8.5%,高于其他板块。但经济衰退可能影响分红可持续性。</span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">逻辑分析</span></strong><span leaf="">:这类公司适合长期配置,需关注底层资产质量和政策支持。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">七、分析师预测:2027年增长路径与目标价</span></h3><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">报告FIGURE 16-19详细列出了各公司未来两年增长率。整体看,运输和可再生能源是亮点,而电信增速放缓。</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">运输业</span></strong><span leaf="">:欧洲建筑公司Vinci目标价152欧元,涨幅30.8%,因特许经营项目扩张。北美铁路CSX收入增速4%,稳健增长。</span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">公用事业</span></strong><span leaf="">:欧洲可再生能源Orsted的EBITDA增速13%,但扭亏为盈仍需时间。</span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">目标价逻辑</span></strong><span leaf="">:Barclays采用DCF(现金流折现)和SOTP(分部加总)模型。例如,机场估值基于旅客流量复苏,铁路基于货运需求。</span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">关键洞见</span></strong><span leaf="">:高增长公司(如可再生能源)目标价上修空间大,但需验证执行风险。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">八、股价表现与股息:防御性板块跑赢大市</span></h3><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">最后章节(FIGURE 21-44)分析了过去一年的市场表现。全球基础设施指数(GLIO)跑赢标普500,但内部分化剧烈。</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">股价领涨板块</span></strong><span leaf="">:欧洲可再生能源指数上涨38.7%,北美铁路上涨24.1%。欧洲公用事业表现稳健。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042075" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHtUNRAialYDm8VibicicPJIjSMq4oMNdCoXUWT8N2KcgPu80HOvJ4YMozTg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">股息收益率</span></strong><span leaf="">:全球平均3.5%,能源传输板块最高(5.7%)。欧洲管制公用事业股息最稳定。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100042074" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnDJjsSMhdYqWXNXOAgjCicHxMYENkWVM6oyEN60wVuP6T8XNw8n5ic7aiapMCZtmaMicvPl79spnHurg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">风险提示</span></strong><span leaf="">:电信和卫星通信波动最大,跌幅超50%。</span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">投资启示</span></strong><span leaf="">:股息策略在加息环境下有效,结合增长潜力(如可再生能源)可优化组合。</span></p><hr style="margin: 24px 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: 0px;border-image: initial;border-top: 1px solid var(--yb-md-hr-border-color);background: none rgb(252, 252, 252);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.5;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">结论:2025年投资策略与行动建议</span></h3><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">综合报告观点,2025年基础设施投资需“稳中求进”:</span></p><ol style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">核心配置防御板块</span></strong><span leaf="">:公用事业(股息率高)和欧洲机场(复苏确定)。</span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">高增长赛道</span></strong><span leaf="">:聚焦北美通信基础设施和欧洲可再生能源,但严控估值泡沫。</span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">规避风险领域</span></strong><span leaf="">:电信塔楼和卫星通信盈利不稳定,需谨慎。</span></p></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">宏观关联性</span></strong><span leaf="">:跟踪利率和通胀数据,新兴市场机会与风险并存。</span></p></li></ol><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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